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post #21 of 81
Thread Starter 
Oh and the volume the last two days is like half the O/S according to info I could find but I don't know if that is accurate (have they issued more shares since?) Volumes like that should be reflective of short covering more often than not.
post #22 of 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

Oh and the volume the last two days is like half the O/S according to info I could find but I don't know if that is accurate (have they issued more shares since?) Volumes like that should be reflective of short covering more often than not.


ThinkorSwim shows the shares outstanding as 31,575,000,000. 31B?????

 

EDIT: There is no way in hell that is right. That would give an outrageous market cap based off it's current PPS.

post #23 of 81
Thread Starter 
I bet it is right but just in MM not BB as ToS stated. Regardless, volume pushing 29.4 MM today, so almost the whole OS traded if those figures are right. Obvious signs of short covering and/or an absolute raping of retail participants today. This issue might just attract some regulatory attention, don't you think? What a friggin' farce.
post #24 of 81

i bet that figure is right. i read an article somewhere earlier in the year that said mutual funds love shorting this thing.

post #25 of 81
I thought about picking some up AH today in the $18s but decided against it. Who knows, we might go up Monday. Isn't the 200 day MA somewhere around $38-40 for TVIX? I'm sure sometime in the near future it'll succeed that.
post #26 of 81

Well I ended up buying 300 shares today at $18.20. I'm currently sitting on a nice profit but am wishing I had more. The markets seem to have turned, hopefully, and we will see TVIX and other market inverses turn around from their three month slum. I'm probably going to triple my holdings if it falls a bit tomorrow or Friday, I'm finally on the bear bandwagon.

post #27 of 81

Maybe of interest:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/16/884611/vix-dog-millionaire/?updatedcontent=1

 

Vix dog millionaire

Macro Risk Advisors’ (MRA) Dean Curnutt has picked on a very interesting development in the land of volatility ETNs. In the last few days there’s been an absolutely astounding amount of vega trading through these products.

As he notes:

One client summarized the situation as “the volatility ETNs are the dog and SPX implied vol is the tail.”

The above applies to two products specifically, the VXX — the long-standing Barclays iPath ETN whose strategy is focused on rolling across short-term Vix futures — and TVIX, a 2x levered VXX product marketed by India’s VelocityShares, but backed by Credit Suisse and launched in November 2010.

It’s the sudden growth in the shares outstanding of the latter — to 35.725m this February week versus less than 6m in December 2011 — which is perhaps the most eye opening:

post #28 of 81
Thread Starter 
OS is updated daily, here.

http://www.velocityshares.com/products.shtml

As of today, 35.725 MM, meaning more than the entire OS traded yesterday, and around the entire OS traded twice more in the last week. Unbelievable.
post #29 of 81

rando-

you think we'll see more short covering today and tomorrow?   I'm thinking tvix is due to deflate a bit here . . .

post #30 of 81
Thread Starter 
Sorry, missed your question. Suddenly TVIX OS is now up another 5 MM to 40.725 MM since five days ago. That's amazing. CS suspended issuance of TVIX shares, they say temporarily. Hopefully that means the SEC is poking around this one because the movement we've seen in TVIX IMO is clearly indicative of big money reaming retail guys left and right. I'd hate to see TVIX suspended or similar but it might protect a lot of clueless investors/traders.
post #31 of 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

 I'd hate to see TVIX suspended or similar but it might protect a lot of clueless investors/traders.


That could be ugly.

 

There have been a lot of complaints about the big boys manipulating markets through the leveraged ETFs, if TVIX is clipped, that sets precedent that could snow ball into others like FAS, FAZ etc.

 

post #32 of 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

Sorry, missed your question. Suddenly TVIX OS is now up another 5 MM to 40.725 MM since five days ago. That's amazing. CS suspended issuance of TVIX shares, they say temporarily. Hopefully that means the SEC is poking around this one because the movement we've seen in TVIX IMO is clearly indicative of big money reaming retail guys left and right. I'd hate to see TVIX suspended or similar but it might protect a lot of clueless investors/traders.


So are you saying that this huge surge in OS and the news from the CS that they're suspending issuance of TVIX is because it is mostly the big boys that are buying it up? It is saying that the big boys know that the markets will drop very soon and they're buying it up just before they sell off and crash the markets?

post #33 of 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

Sorry, missed your question. Suddenly TVIX OS is now up another 5 MM to 40.725 MM since five days ago. That's amazing. CS suspended issuance of TVIX shares, they say temporarily. Hopefully that means the SEC is poking around this one because the movement we've seen in TVIX IMO is clearly indicative of big money reaming retail guys left and right. I'd hate to see TVIX suspended or similar but it might protect a lot of clueless investors/traders.


Think that influenced what was happening this afternoon?  some squirrely price action to be sure!     Venom's question certainly merits consideration as well . . .

 

post #34 of 81
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Venom08 View Post



So are you saying that this huge surge in OS and the news from the CS that they're suspending issuance of TVIX is because it is mostly the big boys that are buying it up? It is saying that the big boys know that the markets will drop very soon and they're buying it up just before they sell off and crash the markets?

There seem to be quite a few things going on in the TVIX kingdom, not the least of which is large OS share increase in a very short timeframe. CS said something about an internal limit or something like that as being the cause for the temp issuance suspension. So this facet of it seem self-governing.

I saw on another site the claim that TVIX was 297% short float going into that Friday when it was up over 20% intraday on the back of what looks like a patented intraday short squeeze in several bursts. It's pretty obviously short squeezes happening when you look at the 1 min and also the 10% gaps on each day before/after.

186

Now... as for the share issuance suspension, I'm thinking that CS may be looking for a way to corner the shorts on TVIX. If they don't issue new shares, I'm thinking they could reserve for themselves the right to short any shares themselves, leaving no shorts for anyone else, and create artificial supply for new longs. This would afford them the advantage of no actual new shares, but unlimited supply for longs, whom they could charge the fees (I think it's like 1.6% per year?) as well as collecting the benefit of the negative roll yield and the volatility compounding that eventually sinks the share price of every single leveraged ETF ever created. They would also have an unlimited time frame to hold their shorts. This somewhat ties in with a suspicion that the SEC may be poking around inside CS. I don't know anything that is really happening for sure, at this point it's all speculation. What I do know is this, anyone who thinks a drunk monkey could long TVIX and collect free money should probably consider reassessing their assumptions.
post #35 of 81

Well, I am a new investor and pretty much went all in on the TVIX at 17$ not much though compared to most investors.  But reading this news I don't know what to do, Sell, Wait seems a bit scary , no idea what's happening.  Any advice on what I may expect tommorow, should I be ready to sell FAST if need be?

post #36 of 81
Thread Starter 
Any time you are long ANY leveraged ETF/ETN, you should have a trigger finger regarding selling. I'd say if you get a 10% pop quickly you'd be wise to sell at least half your holdings to facilitate your management of the trade and limit downside risk, unless it is clear the market is careening lower for a while, which at this point seems somewhat unlikely.

Here is another good article explaining the suspension of issuance. The ticker TVIX.IV should be on all TVIX fans' radar, it tracks the indicative value of TVIX intraday, updated every 15 seconds. This will help in figuring out if this suspension will be a boon or burden for TVIX share price relative to its NAV.

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2012/02/credit-suisse-suspends-creation-units.html
post #37 of 81

Thanks Rando, very helpful info

post #38 of 81

yes very helpful thank you I ended up selling on initial spike and made good money, now I need 2 days to relax, shweeeew! 

post #39 of 81
Thread Starter 
TVIX worked its way up to a 6% premium over its NAV (or 'indicative value') and is currently about unchanged on the day, volume is highly diminished from past days. If I had to base my entire market perception on these conditions, I'd guess the market is going to rally to 1380-1400 in the coming 1-2 weeks, and TVIX longs are going to get pummeled. Now the market of course isn't based solely on these conditions, but it appears to these eyes that TVIX longs are risking 6% right now for the illusion of a benefit in the premium to NAV. It's a risk I'm not interested in taking. If S&P rallies from 1360 to 1366 later this afternoon, TVIX could drop close to 8% if it reverts half way to its NAV.
post #40 of 81

i wonder if philo is still holding

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