A question for all...

How do futures traders, especially those that trade commodities make trades with any amount of certainty? I believe they are purely gambling as they (unless they are magical wizards) have no way to predict an event such as a large outbreak of mad cow disease or Saudi Arabia deciding to no longer export oil. (just examples). Some may say they use great money management, but when an event such as those listed above come along, it will be very difficult getting a reasonable order filled. I realize these kind of events don't happen often but when they do it is enough to wipe out a long track of profit. What do you guys think? Can someone honestly say they now where the price of a commodity is going? Do you guys incorporate any strategies to hedge against this? -thanks

Thanks i'd be interested in seeing this documentary. Could you post the link when you get time. The reason I was curious is because I was looking at propietary and hedge fund jobs just to see their duties and requirements and noticed that just about every equities and forex position was for HFT but commodities trading positions generally stated that the trader would be using longer term holding periods.

Thanks oh and not to put you on the spot (even though I am =)) but you say you were looking at futures and walked away with the impression it was pretty much gambling. Do you feel the same way about stocks, forex, bonds ect. ?After all random events could happen in all of those too. I don't acctually trade but I could imagine the biggest problem someone would face is getting their orders filled When everyone else is trying to do the same thing.

Thanks lol I'll take all the 2 cents I can get, and i appreciate the link I'll check it tonight.

Good luck! Like the idea of reading a lot. But remember, don't just read books about finance and economics, you may be surprised with what you can learn from totally unrelated subjects. LOL maybe you will develop the Harry Potter theory that you conclude from reading the final book =)