What's everyone's thoughts on the 10-Q?
MSLP - Musclepharm Corp - Page 15
I see we have finally reported net income. It is small, but a great start for MSLP to turn the corner towards constant/increased profitability starting with 4th quarter.
Also, I hope for a great day tomorrow and PPS increase. For new investors, I recommend doing your own research and getting on board before is too late. This thing will go high! Go MSLP!
Edited by Noob1234 - 11/14/11 at 8:57pm
This guy really breaks it down. Even if MP was to increase their sales by 100%, that would be satisfying to me. 200%-300%, that will be hard. But its possible!
This guy really breaks down sales. Check it out. Even if sales increased by 100%, that would be satisfying to me. The link wasn't working.
Muscle Pharm's sales: Past, Present, and Future (I originally posted this on Saturday morning 11/12/11)
Here are the actual figures. Muscle Pharm's reported quarterly sales were as follows:
Q1 $3.5 million
Q2 $3.8 million
Q3 $5.7 million (preliminary results announced in a PR)
Based upon a $20 million estimate for all of 2011 (stated by a Muscle Pharm rep on MP's facebook page after someone posted part of my original message there), about $7 million sales would be expected for Q4, which would be the highest quarterly sales by far for any single quarter. If the sales level for Q4 turns out to be $7 million, that would be a sequential quarterly sales growth of 23% and a growth in sales of nearly 700% over the prior year Q4 ($7 million compared to $910k). Based upon how Muscle Pharm's sales have been growing over the past couple of years, here is what we may be in store for in the future.
2009 $1 million (Actual historical)
2010 $4 million (Actual historical)
2011 $20 million (Actual Q1+ Actual Q2 + preliminary Q3 + est Q4)
2012 $60 million (Projection based upon a reduced annual growth of 200%*)
2013 $180 million (Projection based upon a reduced annual growth rate of 200%*)
*The historical rate for sales has been 300% growth (resulting in a quadruple) for each of the past couple of years. Since that extreme growth rate may not be sustainable, I have used an implied 200% growth rate above for the next couple of years (2012 and 2013). If Muscle Pharm were to grow to $180 million in sales by 2013, they would be operating at the same scale as Optimum Nutrition was when it was acquired for $315 million by Glanbia in 2008. While this may be overly optimistic, there's at least a small chance that the sales levels I've computed above could be reached. After all, who would have expected annual sales to grow 300% from 2009 to 2010 and then to grow 400% from 2010 to 2011. Is an annual sales growth rate of 200% for each of the next two years really that unrealistic? In the US alone, the supplement is reportedly a $25 billion market. Muscle Pharm products are not only sold domestically in the US, they are also sold internationally.
(I added this info on the evening of Saturday 11/12/11)
Additional analysis: Along the lines with what I had posted below (now actually above in this message re-post), if Muscle Pharm can manage to grow sales at a 200% pace for 2012 and again for 2013 (which may be obtainable since they grew sales 300% from 2009-2010 and will likely end up with a sales growth rate of 400% from 2010-2011), annual sales will be an astonishing $180 million in 2013. With gross margins at 34% (which is the gross margin percentage for both Q1 and Q2), there would be no less than $61 million available in 2013 after product costs to contribute to salaries, facilities costs, marketing, advertising, sponsorships, interest expense, etc. Should they manage to net $18 million from that potential $180 million gross sales, and given their stellar sales growth rate history, a fair value (market cap) on wall street might be in the neighborhood of $450 million. That would be based upon a P/E multiple of 25 ($18*25=$450) and P/S of 2.5, which would be rather conservative based upon their multi-year sales growth rate. Even if dilution continued at a feverish pace, and the outstanding share count skyrocketed to 2 billion, MSLP would be over 22 cents. Since operating losses have already begun to narrow (mentioned specifically in the PR that announced preliminary Q3 results), dilution should now begin to slow down. If dilution ended at the 1 billion share mark, MSLP would be a 45 cent stock, based upon my analysis above.
I'll be a little more ticked off if we're still at this level come next Thanksgiving and they're getting their bonuses. I do expect upward movements throughout next year.
I agree with a portion of the bonus clause they added, cash bonus i'm fine with but its the share portion of the bonus that's a little unsettling. I don't believe this went to a board vote, they own majority shares.
On January 18, 2012, MusclePharm Corporation files an amendment to the Company’s articles of incorporation with the Secretary of State of the State of Nevada to increase the Company’s authorized common stock from seven hundred and fifty million (750,000,000) to one billion (1,000,000,000) shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share.
Then on January 26, 2012, MusclePharm again increases its number of authorized shares of Common Stock from one billion (1,000,000,000) to two billion five hundred million (2,500,000,000).
The day after, on January 27, 2012, MusclePharm makes two substantial insider trades. One from Cory Gregory, Senior President and Director, and another from Brad Pyatt, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. These transactions were for 148,182,971 shares apiece, or 296,365,942 shares collectively. Also, they were non open market acquisitions (i.e. Direct).
Thus, the question is, what's going here? At the very least, it seems MusclePharm has greatly diluted the value of their common stock, despite record sales. Does anyone have any insight as to why this might be? Also, what does par value $0.001 per share mean?