Article from Wall Street Journal
BEIJING—China is allowing more companies to export rare earth after they met new environmental standards, but a steepening decline in China's exports of the strategic minerals suggests that its policy restrictions haven't kept pace with how swiftly market demand has soured.
China controls about 95% of the global supply of rare-earth minerals, which are used in everything from consumer electronics to batteries to defense systems. In recent years the government has reduced its export quotas to secure greater control over prices, but demand eased significantly last year amid a sputtering economic recovery.
As demand continues to slow, Beijing's move is a reminder of the quota's ineffectiveness as the tide turns against Chinese rare-earth exports.
Only about half of last year's 30,184-ton quota was used, according to the ministry. Major rare-earth exports in March this year fell more than 70% compared with a year earlier, according to Beijing-based rare-earth consulting firm Baichuan Information, citing customs data.
In the first three months this year, China exported about 2,773 tons of rare-earth metals, just 26% of the initial quota for rare-earth exports, Baichuan data showed.
"The global market has adopted a cautious, wait-and-see attitude in rare-earth procurement, resulting in weakness upstream and downstream," Baichuan analyst Du Shuaibing said.
The value of China's exports of rare-earth ores, metals and compounds in the first three months this year has fallen 16.5% from a year ago, customs data showed.
Prices have also fallen. Australia-based miner Lynas Corp. LYC.AU +0.54%said the price of lanthanum oxide as of Monday was $26 per kilogram, compared with $66.46 in the fourth quarter of last year and $104.10 for all of 2011.
On Tuesday, China's Ministry of Commerce said it would allow 11 Chinese companies to export an additional 10,680 metric tons this year, on top of the 10,546 tons it initially issued in export quotas for the year.
The ministry said when it announced the quotas late last year that it would keep available 14,358 tons that could be allocated as part of the first batch, pending a handful of companies that at the time had failed to make the ministry's environmental cut.
China is set to release additional annual quotas during the summer. The ministry said in December that this year's overall quotas would likely match last year's total allocation of 30,184 metric tons.
China's export restrictions on rare earths have been the focus of international policy and market pressures in recent months. The U.S., the European Union and Japan in March filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization over China's quotas. Beijing has emphasized the environmental goals of its policy.
So what I can gather is, Demand > Supply, REE prices will continue to decline and affect the EPS of MCP throughout 2012 unless we see a spike in Demand?
