SemperFi Journal - Take II - Page 14

The top of the wedge, 1248, held up yesterday.  We did tick down on a little more volume than the past two days and formed a bearish engulfing.  A break back inside the wedge and look for a retest of the 50 DMA.  That being said, I don't think it will happen, but I didn't take home any longs to bet on it either.  We should get an idea premarket depending on what happens with bonds on which direction we end the year.

Pivots for S&P for Thursday Dec 29

 Also looking at some firearm stocks going into next year with a recent increase in gun sales reported.

RGR has been on fire recently and is pulling back at the top of the recently formed wedge.  Look for a break out of the wedge or with Tuesdays hammer and bearish engulfing candle Wednesday we could see a pullback.  I would look to see if support is found around the 50 DMA also around the top of the wedge.  If it breaks the 50 DMA, the 100 DMA has also been support the last two times it traded down to it.

SWHC is a stock that I have watched but never traded.  One thing to note is that it recently had  a golden cross.  These usually take around 4 weeks to play out, so may be something to keep on the radar on a pullback.

S&P managed to regain the 200 DMA on light holiday volume.  The S&P is going to put in a big Doji yearly candle to end the year.  Who would have thought it.  Looking at the pivots, recent price action, and recent last day of the year performances, I'm not looking for  a big move tomorrow.  Not seeing a break above 1269 tomorrow and the main pivot is around flat for the year.  Low pivots are around the 200 DMA and the top of the wedge.  That being said, I'll probably look to day trade some shorts on any pop, if any, tomorrow.

S&P Pivots for Friday Dec 30

Watching RGR and INFA for possible day trade short opps tomorrow.

I don't think RGR is going to break out before years end.  I'm using the pivots and looking to short 150 shares around $34.25.  I'll keep a mental stop around that $34.50 level.  Volume seems to have dried up in this area the past few days.

Pivots for RGR

INFA in a nice downtrend.  This sector not getting much love since ORCL gave guidance for 2012.  Looking to short 150 shares at $37.41.  Again I'll be keeping a mental stop around that $38 level.

Pivots for INFA

If trades materialize, I'm looking for a .50 move on each, but regardless I'll probably close trade towards EOD and see what the new year brings.  Good luck everyone in 2012

Watching SI for a break of this recent trend line.  With their annual dividend ex date Jan 20, this looks achievable.  Bouncing off at the moment.

S&P closed below the 200 DMA and managed to close within .04 for the year.  Weird?  Not really IMO.  I'm sure there are some big people somewhere giving each other high fives and laughing about how close they could get it to flat.  Good example IMO how the markets are easily manipulated with light volume.  Not really taking a stance right now for next week.  Going to wait and see what next week brings when some volume should come back in.  That being said, I'm thinking it won't be long before Europe pokes it's head back up.  Earnings should get a pace going as well.  Not looking to much at pivots next week.  Going to wait a week and get some volume in the markets before I start looking at those again.

Only made one trade today.  Wasn't even one of mine.  LOL.  Picked up on Rocks ITMN alert in his thread for a quick $200.  Thanks again bud.  My short picks would have worked pretty good if they would have triggered.  Came pretty close but no cigar.  I like to place those limit orders a little on the high side when I don't want to be glued to the computer all day.  SI broke the wedge but didn't stay there long.  Still going to watch SI next week and will probably load the boat on a nice pullback or a break of the wedge.  Nice annual dividend coming up which I think should feed a breakout.  Definitely don't want to hold this one through earnings though.  Not so stellar the last few times around.

Markets start the year out with a bang.  With the gap up today, we crossed and closed above some key levels.  Volume is still a concern of mine though.  While volume was better than during the holiday week, it was still nothing to write home about IMO when today was a day people should have been putting money to work.  I'm in the 1290 - 1300 level top group and looking at the S&P chart, that's where we start seeing some major resistance IMO.

Few Stocks To Watch This Week

INFA looks to be forming a nice bear flag.  I actually shorted it this morning at $38.20 only to be stopped out at the high of the day, $38.61.  Still kicking myself on that one.  One bad thing about working Monday night and trying to make a trade before getting some sleep is I usually set one cancels the other orders so I can get some sleep.  Really sucks to get stopped out right at the HOD though.  Oh well, bit me this time, but it has saved my butt on a ton of occasions.  Still want to keep it on radar for a retest of that upper flag or a break of the flag.

ANN bounced off the 200 DMA pretty hard today crashing through the 50 day and the 100 day on the way down.  Big red candle with some volume today.  On the short list.

MON gapping up above trend line and is reporting earnings on Thursday.

SI also gapping up above recent trend line resistance.

RGR still struggling to break out and get above $34.50.  Starting to lean toward the short side on this one.

Starting today I will be moving my journal discussions to the new groups page.

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/groups/show/3/semperfi-trade-journal-and-thoughts

S&P daily not telling us much today other than we are range bound ATM.  No new highs and no big selling either.  Still looking for a move to 1300 or a break of 1268 - 1267 (Weekly 50 DMA) to get the ball rolling.

S&P 30 min painting a little better picture.  Nice line that we have bounced off of since Dec 21.  Should see some direction Monday.

30 Min Chart

S&P Pivots for Monday January 9

Spent the night updating my sector watch list's and moving stuff around so not much time to go over charts.  Here's a few I'll be watching next week though.

Chomping at the bit to short MU.  Looks real good to me.  I'm going to be eyeing the 200 DMA to go short.  May be getting a little greedy, but this should be where some longs really start unloading.  Looks like they may have started unloading this week, but ideally I would like to see a high distribution candle Monday touching around that 200 DMA and then look for a gap fill.  See what happens.

CXO back in my short range.  Made some good money shorting it above $100 the past few months.  I'm a little leery of shorting oil here lately though and I have that feeling I'm going to get burnt here soon on this one.  Going to watch the market and oil next week and see what this one does.  Will definitely short if it double tops.

Watching this triangle pattern on LVS.  Looking for a bounce or a break at the trend line.

Started watching MTD this afternoon.  Broke above the 50 DMA and almost touched the 200 DMA.  Another wedge play to watch.  Only thing is the bid and ask on this one stay spread apart so it can get some quick moves.  Stays above the 50 DMA and it will probably test the 200 DMA.  A break below the 50 DMA and I might look at shorting it down to the 100 DMA as well.  See what we look like Monday.

Closed right at the tip of the wedge of the 30 min chart.  Who would have thought it.  Looks like we are going to gap above it today.  See what happens at the open.  See how the pivots hold today.  High pivot is around 1291, so lets see what happens.  Looks like we open in the start shopping for shorts range.

30 Min Chart

Might look at starting a short position in MU today.  Looking to get in around $7.55.  See how it looks at the open.

Edit:  Now looking to get in aorund $7.40

Markets gap up over recent highs before bumping into the recent trendline.  Lets see if it's time to rollover and test some supports or consolidate before trying to break 1300.

Pivots for Wednesday January 11

I also started a short position in MU today at $7.32.

Quote:

Originally Posted by richfarmer 

Hey SemperFi, what do you think of ASIA coming out of the wedge?

 

I've never looked at the stock, but a quick glance I would like to see it break the 50 DMA with some volume.  It's been acting as resistance since the gap down.  The gap down appears to be from their earnings report or maybe their guidance, so I mignt would wait until they report in a few weeks and see how the stock reacts to that.  If it can get above $9 (100 DMA and another point of resistance since gap down) you should at least get a gap fill. 

Covered MU short at $7.18.  Just not feeling that the market is ready to rollover yet.  Not a bad day.  Took a long and a short position home to hold overnight.  Both profitable this morning.

You are correct sir.  Sold short @ $7.32 and bought to cover @ $7.18.  My target was $7, but my thinking at the moment is that the market may just chop in this area before testing 1300 and I think MU may do the same thing.  Will definitely short again if it tests the 200 DMA again, or we see some volume pour into the downside.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobK 

I'm not sure but it looks like you sold short and then bought to cover @ 7.18?  Volume is very low on MU the previous two days and I think it will continue down to maybe at least 6.50.

 

 

S&P ends the day with a doji.  Looks like buy the dip is still on.  Nearing some heavy resistance though, so we'll see how much longer this goes on.  Maybe they will gap us up over 1300 overnight as has been the case.  As many have said on here though, there are a lot of gaps to fill.

S&P 30 min still channeling since Dec 21

S&P Pivots for Thursday January 12

Coal sector got a boost today, so I figured I would look at some charts and see if there were some plays.

KOL (Coal ETF) trying to break above the recent trendline.  If momentum continues the first test will be the 50 and 100 DMA.

WLT actually looked to be breaking out to the downside just yesterday, but got a big boost today.  Also looking for a test of the 50 and 100 DMA.  Up better than 7% today on above average volume.

ANR bouncing off the recent support line pretty well and now testing the 50 DMA.  Looking for a close above that and break of the wedge. Up 4%.

BTU also testing the 50 DMA and recent resistance line.  Up almost 3%.

JRCC testing the 50 DMA.  Up 1%.

PCX bouncing off recent support.  Looking for a test of the 50 DMA.  Up 3%.

One look at these charts and they all look the same.  Coal stocks have been beat up pretty bad.  Just watch the charts and go with the momentum.

Sold short MON at $79.95