SemperFi Journal - Take II - Page 13

I don't think you can short IPO's buddy.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by youngko 

take a look at ZNGA, pretty wild, but i have traded it twice today.

shorted from 9.68 to 9.40 and bought @ 9.08 and sold at 9.30

I think I may look at shorting or going long SPXU next week depending on what the market is telling us.  I agree with consensus here that we are coiling up for a big move.  Just got to figure out which way it pops.  Right now the 50 DMA is giving us some resistance.  Once we closed below the 50 DMA on Wednesday we found support at the 50% fib from recent lows to recent highs and have tried two days in row to get back above unsuccessfully.  We get back above the 50 DMA and we test the upper trend line / 200 DMA AGAIN.  A fail here by the bulls and we will probably see 1200 - 1190 before another try by the bulls.  All IMO. 

A look at the hourly chart and we see a nice down trend channel has formed over the past few days.  Top of the channel is also around the 50 DMA, so I will be looking for a breakout of this channel as well.  Failure to break and the bottom of the channel is also around the 1200 mark.

I also wanted to take a look at ORCL chart.  Big distribution candle with above average volume today, closing around recent support trend.  Something to watch next week long or short.  Just go with the flow on this one.  Today was op ex, so we should get a good direction next week.

Made me a simple spread sheet this weekend to calculate pivot points from the previous days action.  See how it does for the S&P today.

Todays pivots based on yesterdays action

Hourly channel still in play

Still watching for a bounce off the bottom of the triangle, although I'm thinking we may get a bounce before we test that bottom support.

Markets had a good day today to say the least.  S&P likes to bounce off that 61.8 fib recently, putting in higher lows.  The main thing I'm looking at is we were able to take back the 50 DMA and close above it.  Hopefully we get confirmation tomorrow.  Top resistance line is around 1251 for tomorrow, so we'll see if that comes into play.  I personally would like to see some consolidation or maybe a little pullback and see if it gets bought.  We also jumped right out of the hourly channel this morning as well.  Short term I'm leaning bullish to end the year and first few weeks of the new year.  That being said I'm still just going to try and play what the market throws our way.

I've also been looking at pivot points from the previous days action to see if this is something I want to add to my arsenal.  Looks like #3 high pivot played out today for the S&P.

I took home a small JDSU position (200 shares) Monday towards the close which I'm still holding.  I plugged it into the daily pivots today and seen the #3 pivot was $9.95, so I put a limit sale at $9.94 to see if these daily pivots were really something to watch.  I guess Mr Market showed me.  Topped out at $9.93 today.  I figured with the small position it would give me something to play around with and test.  The big picture I'm watching with JDSU is the break of recent support and a retest of that support which is now resistance.  Failure to retake the support line and and close above it with confirmation and I'm probably going to get out.  Breaks back above support and holds and I'll probably add to the position and look for a test of the 50 DMA.

Pivots for S&P for Wednesday December 21

Sold JDSU at the opening bell for $9.86.  Wish I would have bought more Monday afternoon, but I want to play it safe in this environment.  Going to SOH this morning and see how the morning unfolds.

Bulls pulled it off today IMO.  We tested the 50 DMA today was able to bounce back closing near highs.  Only thing is we ended with a hanging man.  These hammers have done pretty well at showing turning points in the market recently.  We'll see if we can tap that resistance line of the wedge and possibly the 200 DMA this week.  1229 was also the pivot for the day and it held up so I may have to integrate these a little more in my trades.

Pivots for S&P for Thursday December 22

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11e92 

hey semper, awesome journal.  I was wondering how you get the data for high pivot and low pivot.  I'm assuming you are using them as support and resistance in your experiment?

Thank you.  Here are the formula's for the for the pivots.  I just made a excel spread sheet with the formula's in it so I can just enter the high, low, and closing and it does the rest for me.  Like SJE said, they are more for reference's, but they can also help in establishing trading ranges for the day.  I'm not looking to solely trade off them, just something else to incorporate with trend lines and moving averages.

Pivot Point = (High + Low + Close) /3

#1 high pivot = Pivot Point + (Pivot Point - Low)
#1 low pivot = Pivot Point - (High - Pivot Point)
#2 high pivot = Pivot Point + 2 (Pivot Point - Low)
#2 low pivot = Pivot Point - 2 (High - Pivot Point)
#3 high pivot = High + 2 (Pivot Point - Low)
#3 low pivot = Low - 2 (High - Pivot Point)

JDSU was the stock I watched mostly today.  I also wanted to short MCD for a daytrade, but missed my opportunity.  I sold JDSU at the opening bell for $9.86 and was looking to get back in at a lower price.  Once $9.77 broke, out next resistance was $9.61.  Looking back I probably should have shorted it on that back test with the candle with the long upper wick.  I was in long mode on this stock today though.  The $9.61 level held up pretty good during morning trade, but I felt the market would go a little lower to test the 50 DMA so I didn't buy there.  Once $9.61 broke our next line in the sand was $9.45.  At that time I put a limit order in for $9.49.  Stock traded down to $9.53 and recovered with the rest of the market.  Once we got back above $9.61 I probably should have pulled the trigger when it went back down to test $9.61 that last time. 

JDSU Pivots for Wednesday December 21

5 min chart

I meant 50 DMA on S&P, and i figured the market and JDSU would trade down with it.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11e92 

Thanks Semper for clarifying everything but I have one question.
 

The $9.61 level held up pretty good during morning trade, but I felt the market would go a little lower to test the 50 DMA so I didn't buy there.  Once $9.61 broke our next line in the sand was $9.45

 

 

Wasn't the 50 dma above 9.61?  

 

S&P bumping into the 200 DMA today.  Should be some heavy resistance today, but with this light volume, anything can happen.  200 DMA also around a pivot for today. 

S&P Pivots for Dec 23

Pivots for S&P for Dec 28

Top of the wedge is around 1248 and the S&P is hovering around the lowest pivot for the day.  I still think they would want to end the year with the markets flat or slightly up.  I shorted INFA yesterday and LVS this morning.  Just covered both locking in some profit.  Probably just going to watch the rest of the week and see where we end up year end.