Riley's Risk Management Trade Log and Analysis. - Page 5

Howdy,
Just curious--why the above trade??

IOW--what did you see yesterday morn in the chart or news that made you say--hey the USD is going to be strong and now is a great time to jump in....and its going to be so big its going to move amazingly strong 100-ish pips? What was your timeline for this move to occur in?? What were your validations?

I'm not trying to discourage or put you on the spot--but trying to help you think about your trade here and what you can learn from it so you don't repeat it. There is a lesson here in that every trade you plan or take has to validate every aspect for that trade---entry, stop, exit tgt, pair, plus any catalyst that may move it etc. Every time a trade works or fails--it teaches you something....something to avoid, something to fix about your trade...or something to look for and repeat...

I mean...I look at the chart--1hr & 4hr/daily is my speciality but I also looked at the 15min in case you were trading shorter times...and I could see a small 'wave' that 'could' dip a bit...but not 100 pips worth..and I didn't see any news catalyst that would kick it off either way for the AUD or the USD. So I wanted to ask a few questions.. I mean when was the last time this pair moved 100 pips in the timeline you were planning on holding? 100 pips is a tall order on this or most any pair with no catalysts / news and no huge TA set up...outside of a cross pair like the EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY which can move 100 pips on a sneeze--the AUD/USD can move that much but its not without a strong cause...


If you can go over the trade in detail in your mind--perhaps you can improve trade choices...and I'm happy to help you or anyone look at pairs for good possibilities...


-w

Again I am not trying to criticize and I hope you don't mind discussing... I've noticed you have had a few issues and wanted to see if I could possibly help. As traders we make mistakes all the time--bad calls are part of the game--and I make plenty of my share at times...but when we make mistakes we need to be able to figure out quickly the common denominators in why we made them so we don't fall into a rut or if we keep making them what we keep missing for signs.. Timing of trades to benefit is often the hardest part to Forex trading...

Well 2-4 days is realistic for a 100pip move certainly on this pair--so that is a good assessment for pair fluidity; additionally considering equity influence can also be valid...but what seems to be in error is missing the solid catalyst--or lack thereof one, to fulfill a move fully in your direction. In fact you noted that things had changed. The aspect you said which is always critical to pay attention to--is you noticed that circumstances to why you had taken the trade originally had halted--but you did not alter your trade plan to meet or adjust to the change you noticed. The only rule I have for altering a trade after I take it is when market conditions in the pair change drastically. Its a hard rule given that FX is ever changing--but if you have legitimate reason--such as news or sentiment changes--then they can often be right ones to pay attention to. Catalysts in news such as rate changes or standings from banks on rates and economic future are some of the most influential things to watch for in a pair followed only by employment numbers (aussie employment numbers are due out tonite btw )...and their influences can carry a pair further, or delay further movement after market digests the news sometimes long after a session or even a day or so has played out its time..

I mentioned that timing is often hard to get down in Forex--you can have a great trade idea--one which should work out--but sometimes if situations change or a pair does not follow thru to certain levels by a certain time frame (like a session or two)--then re-assessment of any changed conditions is often a good idea to look over. Sometimes I have trades that I believe will work out--but timing is off and due to news or catalysts it may swing off and then retrace--does not always dismiss the original trade idea, but simply delays it or causes me to have deliberance and repeat the trade even after I have been stopped out once, if I firmly believe it is still a correct assessment. Also--I leave trades open sometimes for days to hit their mark--in those days if I see something that changes the mood or movements then I take note to re-assess...but if I do not see anything (market noise/hesitation IMO is not a reason) that alters my original idea I'll ride it out... Remember that time is on the traders side.

Given such a circumstances as you noted you may be able to garner some 'emotion' (eagerness to trade) that may be also tossing you into trades that may bite you or blind you to changes that may be note worthy. Plus your not having followed the pair much recently, its usually best IMO to make smaller tighter trades with smaller goals and reorient yourself with whats going on. Smaller trades--taken in steps (of like 20-30 pips or so)..which as each step progresses can validate your larger trade idea more and more--or save you from a larger loss. Validation points are something I have learned to work into my trade ideas--points along the intraday S&R lines to be reached to confirm or deny my trade idea. Consistency in trade wins is the goal here...not how much can you make on just one trade. Pushing your targets and so on outside your comfort zone--is another sign of forcing a trade--and forcing a trade or having it push you outside your comfort for whatever reason is like flipping a coin.

Perhaps thinking about this and reading over this dialog can help you with some of your plans...?


-w

Been there man. Taking some time off definitely helps. Go relax with a few beers and some good friends, or hang out with family or go camping or something. Sometimes it's necessary to hit the reset button and start fresh after a break. Take some time to build yourself back up. As far as being cut out for trading, I think most people are. It's just a matter of how hard you're willing to work at it, and how bad you want it. And if one isn't able to be consistently profitable yet, then as long as they are consistently educating themselves and learning lessons from their mistakes then they will get to the point of being consistently profitable. It's not easy obviously, but it is a perfectly achievable goal for people willing to put in the time. Hang in there.

Been there, done that and got a tee shirt too...beat myself up so bad--made me doubt myself and it made me so emotional at it..questioned myself a TON at this--why am I bothering--am I stupid?? why is this so hard and difficult...why can't I 'get' this down and figure it out???? But the thing with me is I do not like to get beaten--I do not like to lose and who does--we all take a losses and negative outcomes personally because we expect as adults to be 'all knowing' and 'wiser' and able to take care of what we get ourselves into....but the thing is that in Forex (and life) you have to understand that sometimes you can make every correct move, you can make every accurate action happen--and still have it lose.. That is not personal and its also not just in Forex--its just how it goes. We are not always in control of the uncontrolable--so we have to stop focusing on what we cannot control--and focus on what we CAN control--and we CAN control how we react and approach our trades and what and when we trade and for what reasons we take a trade. I decided simply this--if I have to find a way until my last day on earth to make this work and figure out my problem--then that is what I will do.. That's how I approached it after I had blown out my live account for the umteenth time...and it took me a couple of years to get over my mistakes and bad habits to finally figure out what I was missing.. Now--its as simple as pissing on a bush...it just happens and I don't think about it..its trading unemotional for the most part..but it does have its small rushes and fun times....but really its as mechanical now as clipping toenails.. Loss happens--BFD--move on to the next one.. Doesn't mean I do not like trading--it means I am over the emotional attachment to the emotional trading and the foggy road that emotions will take me down... Don't think about the money cause you should only be using money (or using Demo accounts with play money or paper trading) which you don't care about--you cannot garner an education by being distracted counting 'how rich it will make you'--you have to focus on the education and mastering the bits before you can do anything with it... Its like mastering a trade skill at first--who cares what the payoff is for being good or fast--just master the fricken thing to do it well and do it as second nature...

Taking Breaks are good--siesta is very nice...but you have to shake the fears and views you have of this that are negative of yourself... Remember--You are not your last trade--your are not your last 10 trades...if the last 10 trades were losers that doesn't make you a loser..and if they were winners it doesn't make you a winner...all the trades mean is you are a trader--period. When a trade ends--stopped out for a loss or hits a target for a win--its over....check it off in your trade journal as another one done and move on.

Really it comes down to you have to convince yourself of a few things:

First is that this (FX trading ) IS a doable and workable thing...it can be achieved..the key is finding 'your style' that works.

Second--you have to let yourself off the hook..you have to tell yourself that you do not HAVE to trade daily or weekly...you have to trade when you think it is right--and if it works great--and if it doesn't--figure out what you missed but move on. I made myself a rule in that I will only trade when I see a trade opportunity and set up which I like that I can take advantage of....that may happen anytime--and there may be days or even a week or two where I see nothing I like--and THAT IS OK. I am under no obligation to make X number of trades every day or week...I am under one obligation only to myself--and that is to look for and take the best possible trades I can see and keep improving on recognizing opportunities... I am not obligated to make 50 pips a trade--I am not obligated to scalp 30 times a day...I am obligated only to myself to learn the best trades that I can see--understand the currency pair I am trading and why...stay disciplined and not risk $$ I care about--no money I cannot afford to do without...and to take and find the best trades I can find and understand/know why those are the 'best' trades for me.... Trades are not a reflection of me--they are just trades....its like driving my car to work daily....its robotic in nature..but here is the thing--driving mechanically cause I know where I am going etc--I usually end up at work safe and sound and that is what I need to do with my trades--just drive....



-w

also good advice...


-w

If I may say--those are some EXCELLENT rules to be organizing for yourself to start---do your best to stick with em, adjust to firm up and shake them out...


And...you have a great grasp and understanding on that NEW rule you have added..





-w

Good decision Riley...it's too bad that volume couldn't keep the pair moving downward into the US close. But if/when that thing spikes up on low holiday volume, you'll be glad you closed it now and will be setup for the next move

Did you read a book on how to Ichimoko or figure it out from observations? That's the one indicator I wanted to learn learn.

I try to reward myself with a break after a good trade. That stops overtrading. So if you had a good one, then I don't stress it the next day or two. However you don't want to limit yourself too, hence I quantify it with 'good trade'. So if I find a great setup, and the next day there's nothing good, I don't sweat it and overlook I mean.

This is something I need to do. I love Forex, but I sure suck at it so far.