SmartStocks - Page 3

My market thoughts - Achetez aux canons, vendez aux clairons – Old French Proverb

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Thank you to all who have shared their comments

With the TED spread (Treasury – EuroDollar Spread) cooling off from recent YTD high set in late June, markets seem to be less worried (or at least have already discounted) some of the increases risk that European banks and countries face. The costs of lending between banks in Europe has come down considerably since the Greece fiasco (Even though Greece’s cost of borrowing continues to go up), but still remain at relatively high levels if compared to what U.S banks are lending money at. Could this be a warning sign of worst things to come from Europe, or is this increase in cost of lending between banks and countries within the EU zone the “new normal”?
Also, junk bond demand picked up steam this week as did equities. The correlation that I spoke before between junk yields and equities continues to hold. What happens to markets when this correlation starts to break? Does it necessarily mean lower stock prices?

For my detailed views on the economy, stock market and bond market, and for excellent quality stock picks that have proven to make subscribers money, visit smartstocks.org.

Currently, we have 3 stocks yielding subscribers with gains and 1 yielding a loss. What are you waiting for, come join the growing group of investors that are already making money.

Thanks to all who have contributed to the thread. I know there are more HSMers on this board who are subscribed. Please contribute, thanks

Thanks again jbrand for contributing

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) has accurately forecasted past recessions whenever the index dips below a reading of 10%. As of July 9th, the WLI index is registering a reading of -9.8%.Bears make the case that the index is forewarning investors of another recession (or double dip) and as a consequence, people will have no choice but to sell equities. On the other hand, bulls make the case that this weakness is a merely a blip, and that the index should start to plateau and push higher in coming months. Which ever side your on, this is yet another index investors must pay close attention to when investing in these highly volatile markets.

With the "death cross" on the S&P materializing and the fast approaching -10% read on the WLI index, could this by what sends equities in another death spiral?

or

could equities still manage to trump these negative signs for the time being and trend higher before reality sets in?

For my comments, predictions and stock picks, visit smartstocks.org
Hope to see more people join the group

Over the years, the 50 DMA in tandem with other indicators have always been a good prognosticator of the medium term trend. Whenever equities manage to close above this moving average, you tend to see a 'higher lows higher highs' pattern develop were equities essentially makes new highs. Conversely, whenever the S&P trades below its 50 DMA, equities tend to see a 'higher lows lower lows' pattern develop, were essentially equities tend to break below some key support levels.

With the S&P unable to close above its declining 50 DMA for the 4th time since the Flash crash in May, could this mean lower equity prices to come, or is the 5th time the "charm"?


For more in-depth stock market commentary, predictions and excellent stock picks, visit smartstocks.org
(hope to see the group grow)

Current stats:

43% in cumulative gains!
59% success rate


Rondo,
I offer a 7 day free trial if you like to try it.

The Anxious Index is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and refers to the probability of a decline in real GDP. As it sands now, it looks like the probability that the U.S will enter into another recession or at the very least see a deceleration in growth next quarter is about 10%.

Does this mean markets are too complacent and have not fully discounted "risk", or does it mean that markets have discounted "risk" to this full potential? What if anything does this mean for the markets?

For more detailed market commentary and excellent stock picks, visit smartstocks.org.

51% in cumulative gains
61% success rate

Thanks MC

I recommend a trade almost every day (some days I will not recommend a trade if I don't see a trade worth putting on).
Yes, these are swings plays. Typically, they take anywhere from 2 days up to 4 weeks to close (however, those that take longer to close have a higher probability of yielding you a gain).
I provide subscribers with the trade set up: Entry price, target, stop loss level and risk. All they have to do is input the prices.

I've been getting a lot of good reception lately so that is always encouraging to read. People seem to like the commentary I offer. Hope to see you join the group and encourage others to do so as well. I offer a very generous referral program as well.

** For those of you that are reading the thread for the first time, on the previous pages there is some of the info I talk about in the daily and weekly newsltters that I sent out. Just so you get an idea of what your getting**.


Thanks Ace

Sydor 05,

I've sent you a private message and email regarding the issue at hand. Because I've been so busy attending all matters related to the website (answering questions and what not), I've had little time to check back here on HSM (just caught your PM and messages). As far as emails are concerned, I have not received any from you. I hope that with the PM I sent you, everything is clear. I've also written you an email. In case you still do not receive the emails, let me know via HSM and I will answer back ASAP.

Because of the misunderstanding I am giving you a whole week of service FREE. Again, my sincere apologies.

jbrand1, thanks for stepping in

David