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post #161 of 441
Thread Starter 

Jah Bless and the rest of the forum,

 

Due to forum regulations, I cannot occupy this space with 'ad related' subjects. I've sent you a PM (private message) with a response to your inquiry. For all those who are interested in taking advantage of the service or would like to contact me for other reasons, feel free to PM me and we will take it from there (i.e. exchange emails, etc).
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by jah bless View Post

I like the testimonials people from here are leaving you.  How do I sign up for the 2 free week trial?  Enter billing information and if I don't want to pay after 2 weeks I need to cancel? or the trial will automatically end?


 

 

post #162 of 441
Thread Starter 

 

 

I thought of posting this here for those interested in joining the service. 

 

 

It depends on the event and instrument that I am analyzing. If I am picking a stock, what I usually do is go back anywhere from 1 - 20 years and evaluate the stock based on historical precedents. I always start by creating different scenarios ( 5 - 10) in order to test the validity of each scenario. That is, I ask myself question such as - 'what if stock ABC trades up to xx.xx from current levels', or 'what if stock trades down to xx.xx from current levels' or 'what if stock trades up to this level but then trades down to that level', and so on. To each of these scenarios or events I then assign or attach a probability that I derive from those historical precedents that I observe. I use the t-distribution to test the statical significance of each event.The outcomes that yield my the highest number I then perform further research. Here is were I incorporate the TA part. Most people automatically jump onto the TA - thats a no, no. Why? Because TA tells you what the market perceives true price to be. It days nothing about it will actually do.  

 

2 FREE week trail offered. 


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerThirty View Post

Thanks bigbull - awesome information. I was curious about one thing - can you elaborate more on how you typically backtest to determine validity and probability? -- I know every scenario is different, but how far back do you typically go and what methods do you use (i.e software/mechanics or chart patterns)? This run up has been going since mid-December and we are now at key levels of resistance from May and July of last year. Interesting times indeed!

 


 

 

post #163 of 441

BigBull - Did you ever work at Patak?

 

Based on what you wrote below I don't quite follow your methodology. So based on a student T-distribution you need to determine degrees of freedom for the sample that is used in calculating your assigned probability. Since you use stocks like NFLX in your recommendations how can you assign a probability and df to how the stock will react in 2011 based on less than 10 years of data and only <3 years of beta-relevant data? 

 

I'm not trying to be mean but I don't fully understand your process. It seems a little black box-ish. Using NFLX as an example found on your website you made a closing trade in sept 2011 based on probability you derived from the stock being above 200 for less than 6 months. I would love to learn more as I have a background in statistics and masters degrees in multiple scientific disciplines and this probability assignment is something I have been working on for years.

 

Would love to discuss your strategy or whatever you are willing to share in relation to probability analysis,

 

 
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post

 

 

I thought of posting this here for those interested in joining the service. 

 

 

It depends on the event and instrument that I am analyzing. If I am picking a stock, what I usually do is go back anywhere from 1 - 20 years and evaluate the stock based on historical precedents. I always start by creating different scenarios ( 5 - 10) in order to test the validity of each scenario. That is, I ask myself question such as - 'what if stock ABC trades up to xx.xx from current levels', or 'what if stock trades down to xx.xx from current levels' or 'what if stock trades up to this level but then trades down to that level', and so on. To each of these scenarios or events I then assign or attach a probability that I derive from those historical precedents that I observe. I use the t-distribution to test the statical significance of each event.The outcomes that yield my the highest number I then perform further research. Here is were I incorporate the TA part. Most people automatically jump onto the TA - thats a no, no. Why? Because TA tells you what the market perceives true price to be. It days nothing about it will actually do.  

 

2 FREE week trail offered. 


 

 



 

post #164 of 441

 
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post

 

 

I thought of posting this here for those interested in joining the service. 

 

 

It depends on the event and instrument that I am analyzing. If I am picking a stock, what I usually do is go back anywhere from 1 - 20 years and evaluate the stock based on historical precedents. I always start by creating different scenarios ( 5 - 10) in order to test the validity of each scenario. That is, I ask myself question such as - 'what if stock ABC trades up to xx.xx from current levels', or 'what if stock trades down to xx.xx from current levels' or 'what if stock trades up to this level but then trades down to that level', and so on. To each of these scenarios or events I then assign or attach a probability that I derive from those historical precedents that I observe. I use the t-distribution to test the statical significance of each event.The outcomes that yield my the highest number I then perform further research. Here is were I incorporate the TA part. Most people automatically jump onto the TA - thats a no, no. Why? Because TA tells you what the market perceives true price to be. It days nothing about it will actually do.  

 

2 FREE week trail offered. 


 

 



 

post #165 of 441
Thread Starter 

Hey NYC - Trader,

 

Yes, I worked at Patak but only for a very brief period of time (3~ months). While it was a great learning experience (as all trading endeavors are if you are truly committed to learning), I had to part ways because I did not envision myself working in a program were I had to follow a certain list of provisions. In trading, it is all about creating your own system (parameters) such that it suits your trading style. When you try to conform to someone elses trading style (by essentially incorporating the parameters that are given to you), that is when you start to commit more mistakes than you ought to. Now, following someone elses advice is entirely different than conforming to a particular trading style.  If someone is new to the market, or if someone who is a bit more experienced  needs an extra pair for eyes or ideas, then it is  entirely fine for that individual to seek assistance. The more information you have, the better off you are - it's that simple.

 

To your question; Before arriving to the df, I first compute the mean, followed by s (squared). To compute the mean, I simply average all of the observations within a specified time frame(s) (at my choosing). These observations are derived from the different outcomes I create for the stock. For instance, I may deploy 5 - 10 different 'outcomes' of what NFLX stock could do over a specified time period, and then use those figures to compute the mean. Mind you that the outcomes I produce on this first stage are at random. From there, I then compute s (squared) to get the variance of the population from which the sample was taken. This will allow me to compute the standard errors for each observation and thus create a t-statistic. Since the degrees of freedoms in a t-distribution are free to vary, I always use the number of observations and subtract that from one to get the df. So if I projected or guesstimated 15 different scenarios for what NFLX stock could do (I have a software that allows me to do this; I don't actually compute each scenario), I then use that, minus 1, to get my df. Once I get a t-stat for each observation, I select those that yield the highest value and then assign a probability to each event (or outcome) based on what the stock did in the past. For instance, lets say one of my outcomes,  has a high t-stat value - let's say NFLX will trade up to $150. I then draw on past data and see how in how many outcomes did NFLX stock act equally if not similarly, to what that outcome projected. The more occurrences = the higher the probability of that event re-occurring. The market, at least from my point of view, is all about cycles. If you can spot a trend, you can spot a cycle. The key is to recognize that cycle and quantify it such that it gives you a close estimate of how likely it is for the same trend to re-emerge.

 

I hope this helped and if you still have questions or doubts as to how I arrive to these figures, feel free to comment and I'll do my best to explain without going into much detail.

 

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by NYC-Trader View Post

BigBull - Did you ever work at Patak?

 

Based on what you wrote below I don't quite follow your methodology. So based on a student T-distribution you need to determine degrees of freedom for the sample that is used in calculating your assigned probability. Since you use stocks like NFLX in your recommendations how can you assign a probability and df to how the stock will react in 2011 based on less than 10 years of data and only <3 years of beta-relevant data? 

 

I'm not trying to be mean but I don't fully understand your process. It seems a little black box-ish. Using NFLX as an example found on your website you made a closing trade in sept 2011 based on probability you derived from the stock being above 200 for less than 6 months. I would love to learn more as I have a background in statistics and masters degrees in multiple scientific disciplines and this probability assignment is something I have been working on for years.

 

Would love to discuss your strategy or whatever you are willing to share in relation to probability analysis,

 

 
 



 



 

post #166 of 441
Thread Starter 

Letter sent to subscribers. Thank you all for allowing me to provide the service for the 2 years!

 

 

Dear Subscriber,

 

After multiple attempts to attract new clientele and encourage current subscribers to renew their subscriptions, I regret to inform that I am forced to discontinue the service effective April 1st, 2012. While it pains me to shut down the service mainly because of the great network of trading partners and friends that I’ve come to mentor and influence over the last 2 years,  I regrettably was left with no other choice. I want each and everyone one of you to understand that arriving to this decision was not easy. I did all that I could to keep the service open, but due to a lack of commitment by a few individuals, I simply cannot devote time to a newsletter that will service less than 10 people.  

 

With that in mind, I want to personally thank a handful of individuals who have been with me since day one (when they joined) and have showed their appreciation for the word I provide day in and day out, not solely by renewing their subscriptions, but by helping me promote the website. Words cannot express my appreciation. While I understand that it is not going to be easy for some of you to part ways and venture into the financial world alone, please remember that I will continue to be readily available via email with any questions you may have. Now to be clear, I will not offer any advice on any stock nor will I provide an analysis of the market. However,  if you have questions regarding a set up or would like my opinion on how to set up a screener and what not, by all means contact me. In addition to this, I will extend a ‘special service’ to those interested. The service basically consists of managing your money at a fixed commission rate (15% of all realized gains). I assume no share in whatever loss may occur. Moreover, In addition, I will offer lessons or weekly seminars were I will coach you on how to trade and analyze the markets (i.e. we will review the week trades), plus provide you with a view of what you can expect to see in the markets. For those who want to possibly pursue this investment opportunity, please email me. I can only accept three people since I currently manage the money of three other friends (trading partners). While 2007 - 2010 were vey good years for us, 2011 - 2012 have been rather mute. That said, with patience and perseverance, I know that over time we’ll continue to build on gains.  

 

Setting that aside, I want to make sure all of you understand that whatever subscriptions are left after MArch 31st, I will reimburse the money that is left in your subscription, should you choose. If you want a partial refund (this will be computed based on the dollar amount you payed in your last subscription divided by 366 days), email me and I will reimburse you that money by the first week of April. If you choose not receive a reimbursement, then there is no need to email me.

 

Hopefully you’ll come out of this as a more experienced trader that is able to create, manipulate, and analyze data in a more efficient and proactive manner.  Please use all the tools that I’ve developed, researched, and created to build on more complex models (like the one’s Ive created). Do not be discouraged if you at any point finds yourself sequestered by the market. Go back to the newsletters I’ve written and find relative pieces of information that you can use to help you navigate the markets. If that doesn’t work, email me and I’ll try ot help at the best of my ability.

 

Note: I will continue the distribution of newsletters until the last day of March (i.e. for another month). If you have an expiring subscription soon and would like to take advantage of this final month, then subscribe by March 1st for a mont (just $30 for the stock trading service and $50 for the stock & option trading service) and I will continue to provide you with the newsletters. also, I will make sure to let you all know when and at what price to close a trade should we still have a trade open (stock or option) by the final days of March. I will not leave you stranded, that I promise.  

 

Once again, thank you for allowing me to build this fantastic project of mine. It was always a dream of mine to create a website were I could help direct new and experienced traders in the right direction in this new world market we live in. While its sad to see this happen, I know we will all reconvene at some point in time.

 

If you have ay questions, feel free to email me and I’d be glad to help.

 

 

 

post #167 of 441

bump.. just checked out the site.

 

50 bucks a month now compared to when u started.  Still 1 trade pays for all that so no biggy..

I like the record of trades you posted there.

no professional email address?   i dont really like the design but maybe u lack many options as u created it for free with that service.

just some constructive criticism.  Despite that, Bigbull knows his shit. and making money is more important than beautifying a website right..

 

I dont have paypal..no other payment option?  

post #168 of 441
Thread Starter 

I am likely to re-open the site over the next few days (some where around mid April). I've emailed a few of my former guests (clients) to see how many would sign up again for the service, and so far 3 have said they would. If I can get at least 10 people to start with, I'll re-open the site. Anything less than that, and I'll likely won't. Of those of you who signed up at some point or another, or those new that would like to see what the service is all about, I would like to know how many would want to join. The pricing will be similar:

 

1 month - $29.99

3 month - $79.99 

etc

 

However, I will be making a couple of changes to the service.

 

First, instead of sending 'Daily Newsletters' Monday - Friday that gives you a taste at what caught my eye in the days trade, I'll be sending out a simple and easy to follow 1-page trade notifications detailing the (new) trade with an added in-depth explanation of why I chose the trade, and what my expectations are. At the end of the week, I'll be sending a detailed and in-depth weekly report that will cover every market, citing my expectations and items to watch for (usually 3 - 5 pages). As always, I will keep sending updated portfolios each day of the week.

 

Second, I will only recommend stock and a few FOREX trades; no option or futures trades will be recommended. If you're mainly an option trader, you can always choose your own strategy based on the outlook and trade parameters I have (and set) for each stock, or you can contact me at anytime to exchange possible trade ideas.

 

As I redesign the website and work on other perks, I will add anyting else that I see fit. I will keep you posted. 

post #169 of 441
Thread Starter 

I'm looking at different vendors and payment sources. I'll let you know soon. As for the website design, I am no artists and the website is merely a vessel to help transfer new guests to the actual service (which consists of emails). I'll be redesigning the site over time, but come this summer, I'll have a a better looking site thanks to my wonderful sister - a terrific web designer. 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crankndapot View Post

bump.. just checked out the site.

 

50 bucks a month now compared to when u started.  Still 1 trade pays for all that so no biggy..

I like the record of trades you posted there.

no professional email address?   i dont really like the design but maybe u lack many options as u created it for free with that service.

just some constructive criticism.  Despite that, Bigbull knows his shit. and making money is more important than beautifying a website right..

 

I dont have paypal..no other payment option?  

post #170 of 441
Thread Starter 

I just finished (with some help) redesigning the website. It’s nothing fancy, but I feel like it’s a bit more welcoming than the previous layout.

With that said, I want to welcome everyone to the newly redesigned and revamped site (service). The re-launch is on Monday, April 15th, 2013. So far, I have 7 people interested. It would be nice to see at least 3 more people join the group before the launch. If you or anyone you know needs some help with the markets, please refer them to the site. IF there any questions, email me, PM me or write me a message here. For all other questions, please refer to the site. A 30-day FREE subscription plan is offered.  

post #171 of 441
Thread Starter 

Two more people signed up for the service - Rui and Daniel. That’s 9, I need one more to make it 10! Do it. A 30 day FREE trial is offered. The first trade set up will be sent Monday – April 15th, 2013. The new redesigned, reinvented and revamped site – smartstocks.org 

post #172 of 441
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post

Two more people signed up for the service - Rui and Daniel. That’s 9, I need one more to make it 10! Do it. A 30 day FREE trial is offered. The first trade set up will be sent Monday – April 15th, 2013. The new redesigned, reinvented and revamped site – smartstocks.org 

 

I'm interested in the trial period to see how your service has changed. :)

post #173 of 441
Thread Starter 

I've sent you a PM thumbup.gif

I'll be checking out TraderBase too.

I encourage more people to join. There is nothing to lose by taking a 30 day FREE trial. With MC and other guest just subscribing (to the FREE trial), I know we could build on some gains even at these market highs. With the possible re-introduction of volatility, there is plenty of money to be made on both ends. 

 

 

Originally Posted by MC View Post

 

I'm interested in the trial period to see how your service has changed. :)

post #174 of 441
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post

I've sent you a PM thumbup.gif

I'll be checking out TraderBase too.

I encourage more people to join. There is nothing to lose by taking a 30 day FREE trial. With MC and other guest just subscribing (to the FREE trial), I know we could build on some gains even at these market highs. With the possible re-introduction of volatility, there is plenty of money to be made on both ends. 

 

 

 

TradersBase is going to be stagnant for quite some time if not full hiatus. Chris was my poster, me being the web guy and part time contributor. Chris graduated and moved on to an analyst job and I am full time IT so I rarely get to post let alone follow the market myself. That's what appeals to me here, you always did a thorough job scanning back in the day. :)

post #175 of 441
Quote:
Originally Posted by MC View Post
 

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
 

...maybe I am just an idiot but....why don't you two team up....

post #176 of 441
Thread Starter 

All sectors down small for the exception of utilities, which apparently sets recurring 52-week highs every single day, and for hard commodities (gold, silver, platinum, nickel, etc) which are down anywhere between 3% - 5%. Safe heavens - USD and treasuries are getting a boost.   

 

What astounds me the most is that if you take a look other markets from around the world, you’ll notice that almost every single South American and Asian bourse are down for the year, with Europe being relatively flat, yet the US and Japan are the only two markets to be up. Not even Canada is up for the year for heavens sake.  Either there is a monumental shift in business investment (which there is, but that alone does not entirely explain the shift of capital), or there is a widely distorted price fixture that the market is clearly overestimating.  For all we know, capital markets is just one giant pit were funds are allocated from fund to fund, sector to sector and market to market. Obviously, the US and Japan have attracted the worlds capital. The question remains – how far are people willing to bid assets higher in these two markets, if economic prospects remain the same, if not worse than the rest of the world? Will capital continue to indefinitely flock into US and Japanese capital markets because both central banks remain very accommodative? If so, then why hasn’t Europe performed up to par if the ECB is also a participant in debt origination, and at what point is justifiable and worth the risk?  Will there be a shift in months ahead, were these underperforming market catch up while the other two consolidate their gains? These are questions that I believe need to be answered if you want to be in this market. 

 

For data and my views on what I expect, subscribe to the service!

post #177 of 441
Thread Starter 

Sounds like a possible plan. I'll talk to Mike in the next few weeks to see what we can arrange. I don't know if now is the time, but surely down the line. Thank OldFart.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post

 

 

...maybe I am just an idiot but....why don't you two team up....

post #178 of 441
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post

 

 

...maybe I am just an idiot but....why don't you two team up....

 

great idea...

post #179 of 441
Thread Starter 

I encourage more people to sign up. its FREE for 30 days. Lots of great value and insights in a concise and easy to follow format.

post #180 of 441
Thread Starter 

Since the re-launch 2 weeks ago, we’ve closed three trades – 1 winner, 2 losers. In aggregate, the losers total 7.9% in losses and the winner 20.8% in gains. On average, the gain per trade is 3%+. If we normalize these returns over a 12-month time horizon, the portfolio can virtually return 65%+ in a year. Since this is a merely a projection of returns (on a common scale) and does not include all risks, it’s safe to say that the portfolio could possibly return anywhere between 42% to 87% in any given year (+/- 1 standard deviation).

 

If anyone that is subscribed to the service can attest to these results, I’d appreciate it.

 

30-day FREE trial is offered. From there it’s only 30/month. 

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