Ultimate Short List - Page 3

^^^I don't have the balls to root against NFLX but that chart is inviting after Friday. Hopefully it can drop to @ least 130 and maybe 120.

Okay peoples, with the futures down its update time. Some people are saying this is because everyone suddenly remembered Europe's debt crisis or the Australian election (wtf) but plain and simple a pullback is due because a pullback is expected. No one wants to hold positions after a rally in this climate so we have to expect to lose some profits after a few days of gains.

My watchlist got wiped up after that big rally so everything on the watchlist is new. before ThinkOrSwim shut down for maintenance last night before I could complete my DD but here are the main watchlist plays for today. I'm leaning towards doing less of more so that I go with the highest probability plays. So instead of trying to watch 10-15 stocks a day I am going to watch 10-15 stocks a week.

Notably, I started checking out some industry ETFs and the XHB looked so damn inviting that I delved into there for some new plays with the top 10 holdings or so. XLF looked weak too but I never got to it

DHI - Housing stock nearing resistance @ 11.40. Overbought in regards to Slow Stochastics. I will not buy this stock until it goes below 11 PPS which is 10 cents away.

MHK: On the daily, you can run a channel with 43 as the bottom and 50 as the top starting from October 2009. You have a little rally outside of the channel for the March-Jun but I still like the pattern enough to use it. Stock closed on a bearish doji after a failed test of 50 PPS on Friday. It hit its resistance AND had a bearish candlestick AND is oversold on the slow stochastics. I like my odds with this. It still has momentum according to MACD so be aware of that before entering any play.

FSIN: Entered this play last week. Take a look at the 3 month daily. Then add the 20 and 50 MAs. Based on this the stock is in a strongly trending bearish stock. Every time the stock tries to break the 50MA it gets wiped out. If you prefer another look, look at a daily chart going back a year. The stock is at the top of a downward sloping trendline and looking to head lower imo. 8.5-8.55 is resistance if you look at the 30 min chart for about 20 days or so.

Hey fellas. Here are my plays if the market turns south. Emphasis on the IF:




CELL
Stock has been downtrending hard for the last handful of trading days. Close to being oversold on the Slow Stochastics indicator but it has previously been embedded (stuck in oversold/overbought territory) for an extended period of time anyways so not looking into that too much. OBV shows no one is interested long term in owning the stock as well.

GRS
Things look good for a short on the Weekly and the Daily. At the top of a downward trendline on the Weekly and bouncing of regular resistance on the Daily. Has to break through 6.7 with volume on the hourly for me to feel confident in taking a position with low risk high reward potential. Everything is drifting lower after the bearish divergence on OBV and RSI.

ISIL
Semiconductors are in trouble and this looks like the best opportunity to exploit that. The stock is encountering heavy selling on Friday, and is teetering at a crucial support level. MACD is decreasing in bullish strength and it is still not oversold on the SS indicator either. Once it breaks $10 pps, the next real resistance according to the weekly chart is around $8.

NOVL
Similar to ISIL. Stock fell really hard on Friday and is currently on the edge of a cliff with its last solid support around this area. OBV shows no one interested in the stock really for the past month. MACD is juuuuust turning bearish which is a good sign, but the Slow Stochastics is already in oversold territory, although not by much.

WAG
At the top of its trendline. If the retail industry reports negative stats before the open on Tuesday, I expect this stock to sell off quickly. Looking at this either as a play going into Monday’s close or first thing Tuesday morning. Managed to get above 29 pps for two days the last few days before it sold off and moved back lower. Sold off decently at the end of day for Friday. Slow Stochastics is oversold, RSI is showing a bit of strength. Everything else is kinda neutral looking. Weakly trending bearish looking stock.

BAC
My play for a move lower in the financial sector. Although WFC takes a close second. Bank of America's stock is in serious trouble in general. Currently at the top of its trendline and looks ripe for a move lower.


That's it for now. I tried to limit my plays to 5 optimum, high probability but six for now today. More tech stocks in the list for this week but that sector looks weak imo. There is a financial stock and a retail stock in there as well because those are two indudstries i think will be volatile this week.

DDR was on the initially on the list but I checked its recent news and it got upgraded last week so I am going to stay away and err on the side of caution. I change my opinion on stock more than I change my underwear so choose your on entries and exits coz there is no telling whether i will stick to the few i post here if things dont line up like I want to or look better than I expected sooner than I expected

Oh and go me! I am in 2nd place so far with my two short picks for the September Big Board contest so far. Woot!

True. I want to give it the time of day but I have a rule against playing stock that are giving me any kind signal that I would kick myself later on for ignoring. I still don't have a grip on stock and their reactions to upgrades so I just drop em off my personal watchlist for the time being. I might miss out on some runners that way but whatever.

Looking at the chart, the consolidation at a resistance level is something I would normally attribute to the bears slowly wrestling control from the bulls, but with the context of a recent upgrade, it is too ambiguous for my liking.

In my limited experiences, recently upgraded stocks seem to reverse and move higher in tandem with the market, with no strong support levels necessary to warrant a sudden change in sentiment. SBGI from earlier in this thread comes to mind. Very volatile and unpredictable.

If it breaks down below 11, I might reevaluate it and still hop in for a quick but good 8-10% gain riding it down to 10 pps but I am unlikely to touch it until then. I'll stick to buying strength and selling weakness where it is more obvious for now. Good luck charulz

Update
CELL
Bucking the trend hard. Wants to run by the look of things. I'm not watching anymore this til it breaks hard with volume in a major way.

GRS
Strange play. Sometimes it seems to rally with the SPY (S&P ETF), but most times with GLD (Gold ETF). Based on the expected move lower in the market and Gold reaching record highs, I expect this mining company to be a runner. Bullish on this now.

ISIL
With acquisition rumors for the ISIL in the beaten up Semiconductors industry, it is too risky in this M&A-happy environment.

NOVL
Similar to ISIL. Reports are it is due to be acquired in the near future. Off the list.

The rest are still in play and here are some that have caught my eye.


Additions
KWK: Downgraded just as it started fading away from the top of its trading channel. Nothing is guaranteed but I have this as a high probability move to at LEAST the bottom of its trading channel around $11.

MTG: Broke away from the top of the channel with momentum so far today.

Hey charulz. You been at this longer than me, what makes an MTG or DDR stand out for you while the others fade into oblivion? I think I might be missing something that can be tightened up a little.

I draw trendlines too charulz, but I am a little too lenient with mines at times

No new updates on my end because the market is in rally mode. I have been looking @ ISIL when the semis (SMH) are lagging the market and the market turns lower. Just a quick short but nothing serious or worth holding long term. The market is too bullish for any decent shorts to hold so far.

I do have an eye on most of the holdings in the homebuilder's ETF with neutral - bearish charts because I think the confidence that sector has seen of late will evaporate quickly on bad news or once the market as a whole turns lower.

Also I am gonna look at the Nasdaq for short opportunities because a pullback is long overdue but I have not looked specifically at any stock other than the big name plays like AAPL, NFLX, PCLN, EXPE, etc

Anything on your end charulz?

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Here is what looks to be a great short going into the New Year. It's RSI has been above 80 since the 9th of December.

still moving up at this point

looks choppy in that 23.5-25 level on the weekly timeframe. Lots of support from 2006-2008 can turn into potential resistance now

great time to bring back the thread. When the market decides to retrace, crappy stocks are gonna fall 2x as fast

i am interested to know if anyone thinks SHLD should be added to a short list.

 

i am disappointed they shot up after earnings, a move that still has me confused.  i wanted to short them after earnings and watched as it took off

You're disappointed? Ha, let me define disappointment. I'm holding Mar 46 @8.35.

 

 

 

Thanks for the reminders Charulz. I played them long and now I need to put them on the short list. It can't go on forever.