SPU - SkyPeople Fruit Juice, Inc. - Page 2

Happy trading today

Holding at the end of the day because smart money's moving in

Waiting to see EOD action

Direct from the CEO

　　On the occasion of traditional Chinese New Year Festival, also on behalf of SkyPeople Juice Group Ltd. and its U.S. listed company (SkyPeople Fruit Juice, Inc.) (Collectively “SkyPeople”), I extend to you wonderful New Year wishes!

　　As a Leading Enterprise of Agricultural Industrialization and National Food Industry, the only Certified Hi-Tech Enterprise in food industry, Shaanxi Provincial Star Product Enterprise，Famous Brand Enterprise of Shaanxi province and China leading small-scope concentrate fruit juice company, SkyPeople take the responsibility to promote the China agricultural industrialization development, and continuing get improvement on Chinese high-quality concentrate fruit juice, high-end fruit juice drinks, fruits and vegetables and high value-added products in the industry.

　　In the past year, with the community's strong support, and the sincere cooperation from the whole group’s colleagues, SkyPeople has achieved an incredible success. When the adverse effects of the global financial crisis coming, SkyPeople still maintained the good growth, the plentiful product mix and the excellent product quality, which let the company make the excellent achievement in concentrate juice and beverage juice industry. In the same time, SkyPeope successfully listed in the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) in September 2009. We became the first China concentrated fruit juice production company listed in the United States Exchange (symbol: SPU). All these achievement demonstrate we have the dynamic driving force of development. We have successfully entered into the global capital markets and accelerating the company's globalization process.

　　Without help and support from all friends, we can not make these achievements.

　　SkyPeople is appreciate for Coca-Cola, Huiyuan, Lotte, Bright Dairy, Cargill , Rahal, Andre, Global Natural, Food Partner, JBH, EP's of Canada, M & S, Purkel Products’s support, and large number of global drink consumer’s contribution. Thanks to your trust and love, SkyPeople could insist on supervising its procedure from purchase, production, inspection, storage to transportation, in order to ensure to produce the first-class products.

　　SkyPeople sincerely appreciate all investor’s confidence and support from domestic to foreign. A mature company, which has the sense of social responsibility, always regards each success and performance as the driving force of improvement. SkyPeople and its U.S. listed company will further strengthen the corporate governance structure, the company's internal control system, the quality of the company itself, maintaining the rights of investors and promoting the interests of investors to maximum.

SkyPeople will take the advantage of its U.S. listed company, to speed up implementation of internationalization strategy, co-ordinating the use of international and domestic markets and resources; making more extensive and depth international cooperation to enhance our international competition ability, improve the reputation and market share in the international market.

　　SkyPeople will focus on high acid apple juice concentrate as leading product to broaden our international high-end juice market, to establish and improve international marketing system and network, to consolidate and extend our global client resources, and to expand enterprise scale. We also will take the advantages of our superior products like kiwi fruit, pear, mulberry, pomegranate juice concentrate and other small-scope concentrate fruit juice. We will also use the globe sales network and channels, fasten access to international markets to make high profits and a good brand image; and we will use “Hedetang” brand of juice beverage to fully access to China's emerging markets, and gradually establish and improve distribution channels and sales network which can help make mass production and sales; and we will take advantage of our fruits, vegetables and add high valued products by perfect industrial chain, from planting, deep-processing, beverage production to Marc recycle, in order to gain extra profit m
　　argins, and to ensure food safety and cleaner production.

　　As the leading enterprise in the agricultural industrialization, supported by China Government, SkyPeople sincerely appreciate Chinese government’s support in terms of long-term support and greatly help including policy preference, technology and industrial subsidy support ect. We are very thankful for the “Kiwi Deep Processing and Comprehensive Utilization Project” included in the “Key Industries and Technological Transformation of Revitalization plan” by the Chinese Government.

　　SkyPeople special thanks to all the global Chinese compatriots who cares of China agriculture industrialization. As always, your sincere concern urge SkyPeople to enhance the responsibility of us to develop China's agricultural industry and we will shoulder the leading enterprise’s obligation to take full social responsibility.

　　SkyPeople will take efforts to increase income for farmers, improve rural progress and make new contributions to a better and faster development of agriculture and farm produce processing industry . We will together with the global Chinese compatriots to improve the living standards of our compatriots and make a real effort.

　　At last, wish you all a Happy New Year and have a good health, happiness and good luck! We wish "investment in Shaanxi" program on phoenix net will be better and better.

Thanking Coca Cola?

Internationalization strategy...

I'm holding strong

This stock has large investors piling in this on random days on very high volume...

The big dogs are taking large positions and pushing this up each time they do, and the catalysts are not even out yet. Still time to get in, I'm adding more to my position closer to the $7 range...

Look at the action and volume from this morning...

Great buying opportunity off 50 day MA

A lot of these small cap chinese companies don't announce when they're going to announce earnings, and the fact that they're waiting is a good sign in my opinion

I'm fully leveraged on this idea so it's get rich or die trying... I feel confident

Holding through earnings release

Hate being in the red but the company hasn't changed...

Here's the theory:

Analyst should start covering SPU soon, based on valuation its a no brainer to cover them

"$19-21 Million in Revenue for 2010!!!"
Revenue of 92-102 million

Current market cap is 105Million

We might get some coverage before they report, but analysts want to see them file their first real 10k. It's like in sports, the draft doesn't happen until after the combine

Theory hasn't changed, neither has the company, its only gotten cheaper. I ignored technicals because I figured, earnings can come out any day now and that'll change the trading range. Either way, still holding....

Their 10-k

Annual report, they have until the end of march

The Long Case for SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SEEKING ALPHA ARTICLE)

SkyPeople Fruit Juice (SPU) is an unknown, yet, exciting juice, beverage and fruit products producer in China. The company was recently listed on the AMEX exchange a few months ago and the story has begun to get discovered by an institutional base of shareholders. SPU has an experienced and polished management team in place. In the past three years, management has doubled its revenues from $29.3 Million in 2007 to an expected $58-$60 Million in 2009. With an improved industry outlook, record sales and earnings, and a capacity ramp-up underway that will lessen the company’s seasonality, we feel that SkyPeople has hit an important inflection point.

We are bullish on SPU for a number of reasons. For those looking to get in on a long-term secular trend, the concentrate juice market has started growing once again worldwide. This market has big growth potential in China and SkyPeople is poised to grab market share from its more entrenched competitors in the coming years. Due to its ability to access important raw materials and because of its low-cost manufacturing operation, SPU has inherent advantages over its bigger competitors.

In early January, we had a chance to meet with management. We came away from our meeting impressed with their presentation and their long-term vision for the company. To top matters off, their fruit juices were also quite tasty.

SkyPeople will soon be issuing its year-end numbers for 2009. While no exact date has been set, it would not surprise us to see SPU release their earnings ahead of their presentation at the Roth conference in two weeks. SPU has already issued very bullish guidance. In particular, Q4 numbers will be quite “juicy.” Q4 revenues should climb over 80% year-over-year to $35 Million. Earnings are expected to climb 35% to $.45 in Q4 vs. last year’s $.33.


Two things should be noted with regard to the company’s numbers. First of all, there is a high degree of seasonality attached to the company’s business. Q4 is by far the company’s strongest quarter. In and of itself, this is a very good reason to be entering the stock ahead of numbers. Secondly, 2009’s numbers would look even better were it not for the company’s IPO last year. Due to a higher share count, the company’s year-over-year growth does not look as dynamic as it actually is.

In the coming months, a move to the Nasdaq exchange could act as an additional catalyst for the stock. Late last year, SPU hired well-esteemed IR firm HC International to present their story to institutional investors. More recently, the company hired well-regarded accounting firm BDO to audit their numbers. Both moves position Skypeople for a successful move to the Nasdaq and point to a motivated management team with a vested interest in a higher stock price. It should be noted that management owns 68% of SPU’s total share count.

Turning to the stock, SPU trades in a somewhat unruly fashion. Until an institutional shareholder base is established, unknown growth companies at inflection points will typically trade in a more volatile fashion than more established stocks. SPU seems to fit this profile.

As in any stock, however, there are risks. In our view, here are the four things to consider:


1. An aggressive tightening cycle by China monetary policy makers could compress SPU’s P/E this year.


2. There is also variability in the company’s core business due to big fluctuations in juice concentrate prices.

3. The company’s seasonality could deter some big investors from entering the name.

4. SPU may not be able to gain expected market share due to the highly competitive nature of the concentrated juice market.

Notwithstanding these risks, we feel that the risk/reward is very good with the stock trading near $7. After all, SPU is growing 20-30% a year and the stock is still only trading for 8X 2010. With a seasoned management team in place and a clear vision of growth for 2010, SkyPeople seems poised for a very strong 2010.


SPU Stop Loss: $5.85

Disclosure: Long SPU

Update: Sky People Fruit Juice did not present at the Roth Conference because of "pending business negotiations in China" according to their IR firm.

Settled down with very little volume recently...

If I had a life I'd bet it on this right now

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On November 3, 2009, the Company completed a public offering of 2,700,000 shares of Common Stock at a public offering price of $3.00 per share, pursuant to a Registration Statement on Form S-1 declared effective by the SEC. The shares of Common Stock sold in the public offering were issued upon exercise of warrants issued to the Investors pursuant to an Exchange Agreement dated as of May 28, 2009.
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They already completed the secondary. its in your own quote and the 10-K

They just confirmed guidance so I don't think they should have a problem meeting expectations. They are investing heavily in increasing capacity and I fear that they will need some sort of financing based on their working capital and balance sheet. BUT Their financing needs will put them in the spotlight for investment banks and they'll probably get more attention now if you are a believer in the old mantra of exchanging analyst activity for investment banking deals.

Still they managed to increase capacity at a very low cost and could be a strategic target.

Their was strength in Chinese sales but weakness in exports which still an untapped market and lots of room for expansion.

As for not attending the Roth Conference, it was due to pending business negotiations in China, now that 10-K is filed I think they will be more active in an investor relations campaign. After the quiet period (the few weeks before earnings are released) companies like this will hold road shows and conference calls with institutional investors

Which brings me to my next point, now that their first real yearly report is out, tomorrows move depends on analyst activity, at these valuations I can see more banks coming out with recomendations and more notes about the company.

Look for activity tomorrow....