SVM - Silvercorp Metals Inc - Page 24

I decided to stop trading SVM. I just don't understand it anymore.

I think people are hedging their positions by selling the miners and just buying silver itself. It makes sense if it is true. The price action in all miners across the board does not add up when correlated to the physical holdings.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cles4157 

disapointing to say the least.  The only thing I can think is that funds are buying silver contracts, but shorting the minors as a hedge.  If this is the case, and silver falls do they increase their shorts on the minors?  FCX is popping, but I believe that is off of earnings.

Ahh, didn't read this before posting. Exactly what I suspect as well! The falling out of miners will be much greater than SLV itself when the selling does begin.

SVM would be a very stupid short . Their earnings coming up in MAY will blow analysts consensus away by more than 100%, really as the consensus is .11 a share for Q 4. I dont know what they are smoking but must be some powerful sh*t.

Even a grade 2 student could get this equation right.

If SVM produces 1.52 million ozs of silver at 20$ silver and earns .18 , what will they earn the next Q when they produce 1.6 Million ozs at 30$ average. Big hint here , the  answer is not .11

$14? are you kidding me?

No position yet, but every morning I wake up to see silver hitting new highs, I quickly check SVM expecting a move higher... but its still lagging the metal!

And of course SVM heads down, go figure , but wtf do i know. These analysts are obviously much smarter.

The silver market is once again in the spotlight Monday, overshadowing big brother gold, as prices are posting very strong gains that have pushed prices to near $50.00 an ounce. May Comex silver futures hit a 31-year high of $49.82 in overnight trading, up 5%.

Here is the reuters profile on SVM. I am saying they earn .30 at least in Q 4 , lets see who is closer.

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=SVM.N

WOW what a blowoff in silver , no wonder silver producers getting slammed. OH WAIT silver is in the green again.  HMMM lots of lemmings jumped off the cliff today. Big shake by the LME as they threw everything they had at the paper silver futures . It took silver down over 9% from the high but the LME closed now and silver rebounding.

Seems all they did really was shake sheeple out of the very profitable silver producers.

SIlver at  just over 47$, now SVM last Q had an average of 20$ per oz silver for sales, how does the future look at 47$??

These are markets which are neither logical or sensible. It is a terrific buying op on these select silver producers like SVM.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mouserman 

WOW what a blowoff in silver , no wonder silver producers getting slammed. OH WAIT silver is in the green again.

If your silver is down, just turn off your computer and come back 2hrs later. Everything will be back to normal

About it huh , SJ. I note that nearly every session the paper silver price hits it low while the LME is trading. Normally has a big bounce back up after.

Now at 47.75 up over a dollar from  the thurs close on the comex. Like i say , no  wonder the great ultra profitable silver plays are getting sold , wowo wowow what a blowoff top ,only up a buck.

Looking at the daily chart on SVM, if it closes near the highs today, that is another bottoming tail in this range which is potentially very bullish.

My big problem here remains that SVM is not trading in sync with the metal like it was. Anybody who is trading longer term time frames should not be worrying as much, but in the short term, I need to see SVM matching the moves in silver 1:1, which it is still not doing.

Silver bouncing back to almost the highs, SVM not even close to the 14.40 morning highs.

/es is testing the 1331 area.  Nice run so far.  

Yes from a TA standpoint SVM not reacting really bullishly. I also recall the pullback under 10$ in SVM not so long ago and i loaded up ahead of earnings. The market was not reacting in logical or sensible manner, and that is not unusual.  However when earnings were reported and SVM beat consensus by a considerable margin, it had a 50% runup which i enjoyed. Altho the longterm fundamentals for SVM didnt change i sold , for the gain ( right after the date of record for the divvy) expecting a pullback in the silver price. THAT didnt happen and even tho silver continually hits new record highs ( today is no different), SVM did back off. I have been buying under 14$.

IS SVM less of a buy at 47$ silver than it was at 27$? Hard to imagine anyone with common sense thinking SVM is a sell here.

SVM will blow away earnings estimates by an even bigger margin that the last Q. WIll the market sell  on that news? Not normally.

There's some really hefty support at 13.50, and I want to buy some calls here as well, but a break of that level would be lethal. There has to be some hedge funds or large guys hedging their positions with miner shorts. It'd explain everything. Who knows, maybe they'll cover their shorts into earnings too. The decoupling with silver itself makes no other sense.

This is a buying op on this pullback. Not just because SVM will blow out earnings consensus by 100% or better, but because silver is not going back 20$ and they are going to grow very quickly in the nearterm. BYP set to come online sometime in the current Q, and altho it is going to be small production for now ( 400tonnes per day) it is going to grow to 1000 tpd within a year. The initial orebody they are accessing has 7gpt AU ( 338$ per tonne value) average grade and will cost 25$ a tonne to extract. There is also very rich lead and zinc associated which will be brought online later. This is going to add to current profits and revenues from the YING Mine, which is also seeing an increase in production. I find it startling that analysts are using last years EPS and silver prices to estimate earnings for SILVERCORP.  It makes it easy for us to make money on their shortsightedness. SVM will earn between .25 and .30 a share in the 4th Q 2011 , just ended MArch 31, vs analysts consensus of .11.

This current Q ( 1st Q 2012 for SVM) will see even better earnings with higher average metal prices and the BYP gold mine starting up, altho i dont think we will see actual gold sales til Q2. Still you should look forward and not backwards when estimating earnings.

bought a boat load today. svm will beat analysts' estimated earnings. check out this article below:

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/silver-miners-poised-to-post-surging-revenues-this-earnings-season-nyse-svm-1506268.htm

Bought more today as well.  Averaged down a bit :(    Looks like I will just have to hold this for a bit. Wish the divy was bigger.

Quote:

Originally Posted by StockJock-e 

I will blindly buy SVM in the 13.50 range if it hits that price this week.

 SJ, Are you buying more tommorow? 

IMO, you guys are crazy trying to catch this knife! It doesn't go up when silver reaches 30 year highs, and it goes down twice as hard when silver falls. If you have to be in any silver trade, just get SLV. It's too difficult trying to figure out the miners, and it's equally frustrating watching the commodity itself make astronomical highs as the miner bringing it to fruition slumps.

I actually bought this today.Went on gut feeling and put in a lowball bid (13.25) and got filled.Could be a mistake but we will see tommorrow or in the next few days.I`m usually a more educated buyer but I went with this on a whim.Very unlike me but it has worked out well with other positions in the past.I hope this aint one of those morning after decisions.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by REI_Chris 

IMO, you guys are crazy trying to catch this knife! It doesn't go up when silver reaches 30 year highs, and it goes down twice as hard when silver falls. If you have to be in any silver trade, just get SLV. It's too difficult trying to figure out the miners, and it's equally frustrating watching the commodity itself make astronomical highs as the miner bringing it to fruition slumps.