SVM - Silvercorp Metals Inc - Page 23

I am in with a few calls based on the double bottom-ish in the intraday chart. Broke out of its resistance and now retesting it as support.

Took a little profit at 14.60, but still hoping to see a little dip to reload more.

Strong open with silver pushing higher, I guess it consolidated and is now ready to move? Hope the same is true for svm, other silver stocks have been on the move past couple of days.  Looking for svm to follow! Damn beast is getting too fat.

I'm concerned about the relatively poor performance over the last week compared to silver. We have silver pushing past record highs but SVM is still almost $2 shy of last week's high.

Price squeezed by the descending triangle. Can break to downside and I will be exiting. But the bullish divergence in the 1min chart favors upside. Lets see how this plays out.

 

Take a look at the even worse performance of SWC!

 

It looks like SVM and more so SWC were overbought relative to silver. Its pretty interesting seeing silver move higher, yet these fast movers actually stall out and even go the opposite direction!

 

 

picked up 20 May 16 calls for .40

Hope I won't regret this...SVM: please fly after opex....please...

I had an order for 13.95 for most of the week that didn't fill. This afternoon I raised my bid to 14.15 and it filled after closing.

I noticed that the SVM chart looks very similar to several big shipping stocks over the last couple weeks. Compare it to DSX and GNK. I'm sorry to see it decouple from silver now that silver has broken $43. Maybe it will follow upward next week.

I think we start seeing the correlation get back to where it was by next week. The only problem I see is if silver gets another pull back and SVM sells off more.

 

Ideally if we see silver go down and SVM actually hold this range, that would be the perfect signal to go long.

 

It appears to me that a pullback in silver is priced in already, even tho it hasnt happened.IN FACT another new 31 year high.  Comments from Goldman Sachs seem to have had an effect and i guess the reality is that some of the biggest gains the past year have come in some of these silver producers , so people are taking profits.

I  suspect the fourth Q numbers for SVM will be a surprise again to the analysts, who seem to have troubles with their calculators, and the announcement of the BYP gold mine coming online this summer, will be another catalyst to send svm higher in the longterm. SVM will report their yearend in MAY

I have no issue at all with buying here and holding.  But i dont listen to GS, bs . They have proven they dont have their clients best interests at heart.
 

 

GS says one thing but does another.

 

Im pretty sure they tell their clients to do "A", but then the biggest of the clients get a personal phone call and are told to actually do "B".

Unfortunately , GS makes up the bigger part of the US Federal reserve,( which should be a crime in itself)  and will get a slap on the wrist.

Panel scrutinizes Goldman Sachs' tactics:
A Senate panel that investigated Goldman Sachs Group's dealings before the global financial crisis alleges the firm misled investors and then lawmakers. The panel's findings were sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department. "We recently issued the results of a comprehensive examination of our business standards and practices and committed to making significant changes that will strengthen relationships with clients, improve transparency and disclosure and enhance standards for the review, approval and suitability of complex instruments," a Goldman spokesman said

 

My 13.50 target is just 10c away!

 

There is no way Im touching it though, Im too chicken today, this is not acting very well in relation to silver.

Damnit SVM, dont make me regret not buying that 13.55 today

lol

Silver is still rocking but SVM has fallen off the boat. Why has this completely decoupled from silver prices?

The selling in selected silver producers was not confined to Silvercorp, most of the very best sold down as well, after Goldman's comments downgrading commodities. I suspect SVM will have a very enjoyable bounce from this valley.

With silver continually rising I'm really tempted to re-enter here. Still not sure whats up with the miners lately though. Could it be investors waiting on the sidelines for the first of the earnings reports to come out?

disapointing to say the least.  The only thing I can think is that funds are buying silver contracts, but shorting the minors as a hedge.  If this is the case, and silver falls do they increase their shorts on the minors?  FCX is popping, but I believe that is off of earnings.

Well i added back a some of my svm here again today. I see their yearend report is due around may 10 or so, and that should propel them higher, or at least one would hope so. I also received my divvy today from the SVM that i held at divvy date, was a nice little bonus to  add the gains i made trading it.

Silver on fire and ANother new high.

Found these comments from Turd Ferguson interesting.

Lastly, I've been getting a lot of inquiries about the horrific underperformance of some/most of the mining shares. Keep in mind, there are three main issues affecting share performance currently:

1) ETFs. ETNs and closed-end funds siphon investment dollars that would traditionally have been flowing into the miners.

2) The "ratio trade" employed by hedge funds whereby they sell the shares of the hedged miners and use the proceeds to purchase paper metal contracts on the Comex. Eloquently described here by Trader Dan:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/hui-gold-ratio-gld-and-ratio-spread.html

3) Equity analyst limitations. This is important. Eric Sprott touches upon this is his latest  but let me expand upon this. At a sell-side firm (retail, private client or investment management firm), analysts all have individual areas of expertise. In making their forecasts for equities that they cover, they get feedback from other analysts that specialize in other areas. For example, the analyst that covers a  multi-national company like GE may know everything about that company's growth prospects but his opinion will be enhanced or tempered by the opinion of his company's "global economist". Global macroeconomic forecasting is not the expertise of the GE analyst so he will defer to the global economist when implementing growth forecasts into his earnings projections.
The same thing happens with mining stock analysts. The analyst may love SLW and all that they do. But if his firm has a "commodity specialist" who forecasts year-end commodity prices and this fool has a 2011 price target for silver of $30, then the analyst has to use the $30 price as his number for projecting earnings per share numbers. So silver can go to $45 and you and I know that SLW will make a boatload of extra money this year but until the "firm" changes its price targets, the EPS forecasts will stay the same and money will not flow into the stock.