Gambler's Biotech thread - Page 19

The point of my somewhat long-winded post is that stocks undergo gyrations of hope/fear, popularity, and disgust... And, sure, CHTP may be a buy in 9 months, but the problem is, if you didn't already buy it at 2.20, that this recent runup is confirming your fundamental analysis that you should buy the stock. Why not buy the stock when it runs back to 2.20?

Because you think, of course, it will never do that. Possible. Certainly, but more times than not, I find that the pendulum swings back to the side of fear and you can make a nice contrarian buy.

But time will tell.

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Been in it a week or so, held through being down to 0.90, but sold today.

Yes, I believe it has the potential to be a 4-bagger this coming year.

that being said, I think there is a decent chance it could take out 1.00 again, in the next week or so.

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PIP is ridiculous today... was watching at 2.1... oh well. 2.72 now

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Well how about we make a gentleman's bet...

I say that CYCC is a much better trader stock, and will hit 2$ sometime in the next 6 months. CHTP I think may hit 3, but is just as likely to hit 2.50, imo.

Of course I think CYCC will hit 1.01 first...

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So, yes, I do believe you can beat the S&P by buying CHTP now.

Sure.
But you need to walk away from the computer for 9 months. But you would have alot more free time.

Like I said, I think like a trader. I don't care about a sure thing 9 months from now, unless I see catalysts to have the stock run up in the near term. With CHTP, I don't.

Neither with NBIX at 2.80's now... the time to buy was in the low 2's. Yes, I was wrong in that I didn't hold at that point.

However, I don't buy your argument that tax loss selling makes CHTP better now... You could make the same argument for SQNM.

DDSS has the Feb 10th (?) date, and people are saying that is a sure thing too. You should check it out.

So my point, as a trader is that that will almost certainly runup in late Jan, and I intend to buy my tickets for that ride.

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I'd really like CYCC to punch through this 1.12 support... I just don't know if it will...

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So, as I said, I don't care about a drug being approved. I believe the time to buy a bio stock is in the RUNUP into the phase 3 decision. There seems to be a reproducible bias to the upside/hope etc etc which can make a bio stock run up hundreds of percent in that time.

Until the cruel hand of the FDA smacks them around and denies them of course

So I have modified my strategy to buy bio stocks in that hope phase, in order to capture the runup, with little risk.

Others have played the runup to the FDA decision quite well in this forum, but of course you need to get out before the actual decision. Will there be a runup into the CHTP decision? almost certainly. Is approval guaranteed? Of course not. So I would advocate buying CHTP at some point in about 6 months, as I feel that you should be able to capture a good amount of the runup at that point.

So why is CYCC a good candidate for a 300% runup? Well, as you saw today, on a non-PR, it ran up a good 50% (premarket, then came back down)

If it was a substantive PR, we would probably have seen a SNSS type runup that would have eclipsed 100%.

Once again, I am not buying CYCC because I care that it's CDK inhibitors are ever going to treat cancer. I am buying because when you take a company that deals with "cancer" and has a 25M market cap, and is going to have a phase 3 drug, these minimal float type plays are prime candidates to run up 200-300% in a single day on a good PR. Because they are prime momo-candidates.

CHTP is not that type of play. And I don't even think it has a guaranteed FDA approval... heck, DDSS is more 'guaranteed' imo, and it is happening in early Feb.

Which is why I think you have fallen in love with a good company (yes) but one that is far, far away from the finish line.

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And if you are wrong, not only have you lost money, but you lost the chance to make money (opportunity cost) for a year.

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Only because I think the odds of DDSS running from Jan 25 until Feb 7 or so is much much higher, no matter what the pps is at that time.

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Sure. I think that CHTP is almost a sure thing. At least sure enough that there will almost certainly be a runup to the FDA decision. However, I would like to see a specific date come out for the FDA decision (it may, later next year) as it would allow traders to try to buy in for the runup (i.e. synchronize their buying) and would probably be a positive.

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So, ETRM had at one point run up to 0.71 today... Well over 40% from yesterday.

The point I am making that, may not be clear here, is that it doesn't matter if a stock is the best thing since sliced bread, or a turd.

What matters, as a trader, is that the sentiment is overly negative or overly positive FOR THAT STOCK.

yes, I am not arguing that ETRM is 'awesome' in the same way as AAPL is 'awesome'.

What I was arguing (and apparently was proven correct) was that, yes, ETRM was a TURD, but people had overly crushed the stock down below where it should have been, and hence it was overdue for a runup. So it was relatively 'awesome' meaning that it was overdue for a rally. Which happened.

But now that it happened, I will scratch it off the list of 'awesome' or should I say, 'relatively awesome' stocks.

For example, for SQNM everyone thinks that there will be fraud. Well, of course, that is why the stock is 4 and not 24. Heck, the stock got as low as 2.50 something.... and when it was 3, I had felt that it was 'relatively awesome' meaning that it was overdue for a huge runup. And guess what, that happened, to the tune of 30-40%.

My whole biotech philosophy is to find these types of situations, where the fear or disgust or panic takes the stock to levels that they should not be at. In order to do that, I have to judge the sentiment, and predict when I think the sentiment is going to change. You can buy stocks that are absolute turds (ETRM) and make money on them, you just have to be able to estimate when you think that sentiment will change, even the whisper of a good rumor can make them run up massively.

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