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Gambler's Biotech thread - Page 18

post #341 of 2879
12/28/09 at 9:52pm
Hey Gambler what are your thoughts on UNIFF (UNILIFE MEDICAL SOLUTIONS) I would like to get your view. It is currently a pink sheet stock but that is because it originated as an Australian company. They are merging so it can be listed on the NASDAQ.

Basically what they are in the process of doing is opening up a factory in PA where they will be making retractable syringes unlike any of their competitors.

Quote:
Unilife Medical Solutions (ASX: UNI.AX) (OTC: UNIFF.PK) is emerging as a leading innovator in the medical device manufacturing space with a focus on safety syringes and business segments that include pre-filled syringes for pharmaceutical companies to deliver injectable medications, sharps safety devices for healthcare facilities, and contract manufacturing services.
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post #342 of 2879
12/28/09 at 10:18pm
Sounds a lot like Med Patent to me. Let me guess...it's not going to be the alternative in the medical world...it's going to be the standard?!

Just a little Boiler Room humor. But to be safe I would drive out to the office to make sure it's legit J/K

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed98 View Post
Hey Gambler what are your thoughts on UNIFF (UNILIFE MEDICAL SOLUTIONS) I would like to get your view. It is currently a pink sheet stock but that is because it originated as an Australian company. They are merging so it can be listed on the NASDAQ.

Basically what they are in the process of doing is opening up a factory in PA where they will be making retractable syringes unlike any of their competitors.
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post #343 of 2879
12/28/09 at 10:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoast_trader View Post
Sounds a lot like Med Patent to me. Let me guess...it's not going to be the alternative in the medical world...it's going to be the standard?!

Just a little Boiler Room humor. But to be safe I would drive out to the office to make sure it's legit J/K
of course it will be the standard. Someone I know is checking the company out in Australia and then visiting their new place in PA. I may take a ride out there in the summer and see for myself.
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post #344 of 2879
12/29/09 at 6:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by gambler2076 View Post
I can't comment from a regulatory standpoint, but I can say from a scientific standpoint that there is a big difference between proving something is "superior" and proving that something is "not inferior".

It is much, much easier to prove that something is "not inferior", as it means that a drug can be slightly less effective than the SOC (standard of care) but not significantly less effective than the SOC.

This was the case with HGSI back in march. When I saw the drug was "not inferior" to the SOC, but was dosed half as often, it was ludicrous that the street saw that the drug was like 1% less effective, and interpreted that as a failure, even though the point of the study was to show that the drug was non-inferior.

But of course the market punished HGSI down to like 50c, because they misinterpreted what "non-inferior" meant.

The problem is that the street can easily do this again... take a study that is just showing that a drug is "not inferior" and say "well, it is 1% less effective, let's crush the PPS"

of course at that point it would be the buy of a century, much as HGSI was.

So, sorry for not really answering your question, because I don't know the exact success rates. But if this is trying to show that a drug is non-inferior to the standard of care, I believe that that is much easier than showing it is superior.

g
Thanks a lot g. I wasn't really expecting you to know the exact success rates However I wouldn't put it past you.

As far as what you say above I see exactly what you are saying. With regards to the stock GNVC that I'm long biased on I think it meets this criteria. That is, the data from trials is not exceptional. They have no magic cure for pancreatic cancer, however I think compared to the standard of care out there right now this stock has the potential for approval and a drug that can improve on that standard of care and extend quality of life. I personally know how much of a death sentence pancreatic cancer can be. When I was only 14 my father succumbed to that disease. He went from a normal, healthy and active man to suddenly having 6 months to live. Only with the help of surgery to remove half of the pancreas and chemotherapy was he able to beat those 6 month odds. However barely a year had passed since his diagnosis and he passed away.
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post #345 of 2879
12/29/09 at 3:33pm
CHTP looks like it could have a nice run over the net few days. I'm thinking about an entry.

Even the paid bashers like you can't keep it down!
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post #346 of 2879
12/29/09 at 8:01pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gecko123 View Post
CHTP looks like it could have a nice run over the net few days. I'm thinking about an entry.

Even the paid bashers like you can't keep it down!
I'm gonna have to double my efforts, then... maybe do some freelance charity basher work

With CHTP at 2.73 by 2.74 now I hope the new buyers today get punished big time... they are too bullish on the CHTP board, and nothing irks me as a contrarian more than people and their sentiment being right.

we'll see

g

p.s. don't worry, at least one of us will be laughing at the other
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post #347 of 2879
12/30/09 at 5:12am
Quote:
Originally Posted by gambler2076 View Post
I'm gonna have to double my efforts, then... maybe do some freelance charity basher work

With CHTP at 2.73 by 2.74 now I hope the new buyers today get punished big time... they are too bullish on the CHTP board, and nothing irks me as a contrarian more than people and their sentiment being right.

we'll see

g

p.s. don't worry, at least one of us will be laughing at the other
Gambler,

Your achilles heel may be that you leave yourself no room to hold great stocks. ie you not only throw out the baby with the bathwater, but the house, the wife, the dog...

And yes, your YTD returns trash mine.

That said, I'd love CHTP to go lower so I can get more shares. So bash away. Pisses me off that I got greedy and tried to time it. Fricking trading. I'm going to smash my thumb with a hammer every day it goes up another 5% while repeating over and over "dont trade the good ones, dont trade the good ones, dont trade the good ones."
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post #348 of 2879
12/30/09 at 5:36am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed98 View Post
Hey Gambler what are your thoughts on UNIFF (UNILIFE MEDICAL SOLUTIONS) I would like to get your view. It is currently a pink sheet stock but that is because it originated as an Australian company. They are merging so it can be listed on the NASDAQ.

Basically what they are in the process of doing is opening up a factory in PA where they will be making retractable syringes unlike any of their competitors.
I remember these guys. Back in the day when I had hot scans for key words like approval and FDA. They announced this device and I made a killing, pure luck. I think there is potential there for sure because like you said they are different.
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post #349 of 2879
12/30/09 at 2:05pm
Thread Starter 
CYCC should be interesting today... gap up on seemingly inconsequential news...

g
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post #350 of 2879
12/30/09 at 2:50pm
Thread Starter 
Sold my 105,000 shares of CYCC ,+~14K
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post #351 of 2879
12/30/09 at 3:57pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by glitters View Post
Gambler,

Your achilles heel may be that you leave yourself no room to hold great stocks. ie you not only throw out the baby with the bathwater, but the house, the wife, the dog...

And yes, your YTD returns trash mine.

That said, I'd love CHTP to go lower so I can get more shares. So bash away. Pisses me off that I got greedy and tried to time it. Fricking trading. I'm going to smash my thumb with a hammer every day it goes up another 5% while repeating over and over "dont trade the good ones, dont trade the good ones, dont trade the good ones."
So my point here is that, yes, you can buy and hold stocks. That is fine. But you know what, imo, you should never buy stocks when other people are buying.

Yeah, we all 'know' that CHTP will be approved, right? but that is 9 FREAKING MONTHS AWAY... there is a ton of time for this to pull back nicely, to a point when nobody cares about this stock, and it has drifted 8 pages down in the forum, and THEN you buy

In the meantime, there are some other awesome biotechs that I think have much more potential to get run up

SQNM, DDSS, CYCC, ANDS, ETRM, etc etc etc...

So why buy CHTP when it has runup and people on the yahoo MB are taunting me?

I will come back to laugh at their non-contrarian-ness when CHTP gets back to 2.25...

g
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post #352 of 2879
12/30/09 at 4:23pm
in ddss @2.03..not alot tho. i read something about possible dilution, but also something about getting funding
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post #353 of 2879
12/30/09 at 4:45pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post
in ddss @2.03..not alot tho. i read something about possible dilution, but also something about getting funding
Yeah I think DDSS will have a nice runup starting late Jan into the Feb 10th? date

long ETRM, running now

g
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post #354 of 2879
12/30/09 at 5:26pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by gambler2076 View Post
So my point here is that, yes, you can buy and hold stocks. That is fine. But you know what, imo, you should never buy stocks when other people are buying.

Yeah, we all 'know' that CHTP will be approved, right? but that is 9 FREAKING MONTHS AWAY... there is a ton of time for this to pull back nicely, to a point when nobody cares about this stock, and it has drifted 8 pages down in the forum, and THEN you buy

In the meantime, there are some other awesome biotechs that I think have much more potential to get run up

SQNM, DDSS, CYCC, ANDS, ETRM, etc etc etc...

So why buy CHTP when it has runup and people on the yahoo MB are taunting me?

I will come back to laugh at their non-contrarian-ness when CHTP gets back to 2.25...

g
Ok, you can scratch ETRM off the list... 3 minutes after I post the thing runs like 20%... lol

sold ETRM, flat

g
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post #355 of 2879
12/30/09 at 5:48pm
Thread Starter 
Some CYCC DD:

Good article on sapacitabine, comparing Gemcitabine and Ara-C. In Vitro, however.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...f/6603896a.pdf

Sap patent filing... good background info
http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/ja/ia.jsp?...4&DISPLAY=DESC

Seliciclib, article in TIPS

http://www.um.es/biomybiotec/web/Sem...0al%202007.pdf

Personally I am not so hopeful on Sel, which is only a first generation CDK Inhibitor... but moreso on Sap.

I am not going to post the other 5 articles I found... feel free to google yourself.

g
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post #356 of 2879
12/30/09 at 6:09pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gambler2076 View Post
In the meantime, there are some other awesome biotechs that I think have much more potential to get run up

SQNM, DDSS, CYCC, ANDS, ETRM, etc etc etc...
g
ETRM is a dog. May be a trader's darling with the wild swings. Not like you to call a dog "awesome."

DDSS has been running a month--doesnt seem to fit your contrarian side to buy now.

ANDS...last trial results not great. Means they will have to use a higher dose and live with the rash issue. You still like this one?

CYCC...big gap on the news today, great for those already in. Longer term...oncology sector ultra-high risk, low odds of success.

You see any near term catalysts on any of these?
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post #357 of 2879
12/30/09 at 6:14pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by glitters View Post
ETRM is a dog. May be a trader's darling with the wild swings. Not like you to call a dog "awesome."

DDSS has been running a month--doesnt seem to fit your contrarian side to buy now.

ANDS...last trial results not great. Means they will have to use a higher dose and live with the rash issue. You still like this one?

CYCC...big gap on the news today, great for those already in. Longer term...oncology sector ultra-high risk, low odds of success.

You see any near term catalysts on any of these?
How about you tell me what your near-term catalysts are on CHTP first?

g
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post #358 of 2879
12/30/09 at 6:15pm
Thread Starter 
Let me just add that I don't really care what the odds of success are for a drug... I care that people THINK that the drug will work, and that is all that matters... you say the word 'cancer' and momo comes pouring in.

"orthostatic hypotension?"

<crickets>
<chirp chirp>

g
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post #359 of 2879
12/30/09 at 6:19pm
Thread Starter 
What it really comes down to, is, do you want to buy a stock to make money? or are you buying because you think the stock is the greatest thing since sliced bread?

I learned a long time ago that the better you can judge people's hopes/fears/greed/panic the better trader you will be.

So, will CHTP be approved? PROBABLY... but the time to buy it is many months in the future, imo.

My goal in trading/buying stocks is to maximize the time value of my money, putting it to work in the best place that has the highest return. Period.

Tying up money for 6 months in a stock like CHTP does not fit with my goals.

However, if I see a stock like CYCC that has the potential to run up 300% on a PR (and I don't even consider todays news a real PR, but just was the tip of the iceberg) then I will buy that stock.

g
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post #360 of 2879
12/30/09 at 6:20pm
How long have you been following CYCC g. It's been one of my favorites this year. It doesn't take much to get a good 15-20% swing out of it.
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