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USMC's No BS DD - Page 4

post #61 of 72
1/13/10 at 3:39am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
ABK

Syynik, SORRY I WAS SO LATE.... First off, keep in mind this is F/A only. I know nothing technical about this company. This is very risky, but it has the possibility to payoff, but it's dangerous. Just looking at their Balance Sheet, a bankruptcy could happened, but again they may turn it around. Also, this company has received TARP funds. Their Balance Sheet is very shaky, but again the risk could payoff. Reviewing their filings, I noted that they have been in the process of getting new officers. I think a bankruptcy could be in the cards; however, they pulled a profit last quarter, so they may be out of the woods if they can keep it up!

THE F/A ON THIS WAS IS CAUTION, CAUTION, CAUTION; HOWEVER, IT CAN BE TRADED.

On December 8, 2009, Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (“Ambac”) received a notice from the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) that Ambac has fallen below the NYSE’s continued listing standard relating to the price of its common stock. The NYSE requires that the average closing price of a listed company’s common stock be above $1.00 per share over a consecutive 30 trading day period. As of December 8, 2009, the date of the NYSE notice, the 30 trading-day average closing price of Ambac’s common stock was $0.94 per share. ***Possible R/S candidate***


Included in the third quarter statutory results were the effects of commutations of four collateralized debt obligation of asset-backed securities (“CDO of ABS”) exposures completed with multiple counterparties. The CDO of ABS transactions, which have an aggregate of approximately $5,031 million notional outstanding as of September 30, 2009, were settled for cash payments of approximately $520 million. As a result of the commutation settlements, Ambac recorded positive adjustments to its aggregate impairment reserves as of September 30, 2009. The statutory financial results also included the impact from other significant non-recurring third quarter activity such as reinsurance recaptures amounting to $311 million, which had a positive effect on surplus, and the correction of an error in the prior quarter’s estimation of credit derivative impairments amounting to approximately $280 million, which had a negative effect on surplus.

Ambac also expects that it will receive approximately $440 million in tax refunds as a result of the recently passed “Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009” legislation which will allow Ambac to carryback 2008 and 2009 losses as far back as 2004. The tax refund will have a positive effect on AAC’s surplus in the fourth quarter 2009.
 and (Artificial profit in 4th quarter possible).

THE LAST FINANCIALS DO NOT LOOK GOOD; HOWEVER, THEY COULD TURN IT AROUND. THEY PULLED A PROFIT LAST QUARTER, WHICH IS GOOD!
I probably will get in this one for the 4th quarter earnings play.
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post #62 of 72
1/13/10 at 5:02am
BEAUTIFUL job, USMC, thank you-- It looks like (with the filing of a lawsuit) that ABK is doing everything it possibly can to avoid BK/dissolution. A definite lotto play, wouldn't you say?
Thanks again, great job!
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post #63 of 72
1/13/10 at 5:10am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by syynik View Post
BEAUTIFUL job, USMC, thank you-- It looks like (with the filing of a lawsuit) that ABK is doing everything it possibly can to avoid BK/dissolution. A definite lotto play, wouldn't you say?
Thanks again, great job!
It may be a lotto play. I may get in, but BK is a possibility!. However, they pulled a profit, and 4th quarter earnings may be GOOD with the tax credit.
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post #64 of 72
1/23/10 at 6:34am
Thread Starter 
DDSS

I received this message and thought I would share my thoughts on DDSS- not to sound pompus.............

Quote:
Originally Posted by ncsu
I earned a lot of respect for you in the HTDS forum a few months back. While I am new to trading, I have definetely learned what pumpers are and have no desire to be one or listen to one. Anyway, to get to the point of me sending this... I wanted to know your thoughts on DDSS. I know you aren't God or the next Nostradamus, but I was considering buying in and wanted your opinion. Do you mind sharing what your opinion on this one...or any other stock for that matter?

Thanks again for all your posts, you are an asset to HSM!

MY REPLY

OK- Here we go.......... Sorry I was late.

As you said, I cannot tell the future, so please make your own decision as I can't predict the future. I'm actually in DDSS right now, and, even though it may not be wise, I may hold through the decision. It’s probably best to just play the “run-up,” hype, which I initially planned, but based on my research, I do believe that approval is likely- but of course no guarantee (based on the initial rejecting for QA issues, which probably have been resolved).

Keep in mind, as a drug, this certainly IS NOT a blockbuster, but I’m playing the hype. DDSS’s applied drug is basically the reformation of an old, old, antidepressant. It’s NOT a new drug or even an SSRI (Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor- Prozac, Paxil, Zoloft, ect….. ). This proposed drug is a reformulation of Trazadone, which was formulated in the 50’s or 60’s if I recall correctly.

DDSS is a “legitimate” company; however, it certainly is not a Merk or Eli Lilly by any means. It’s not a Pink Sheet scam (like HTDS, LLBO, etc), but it is a dilutor. With that said, I believe they’re legit based on my research.

I initially planned on getting in around the 1.60’s or so, but to be honest, I kind of spaced it out and got in a little bit late- at least in my opinion. I believe my average is around 2 bucks right now.

I still believe it’s still a viable stock to get into NOW, but do some updated TA, as I have not. As I said, it may be best to sell before the decision, which is probably wise, but I MAY take the gamble and hold past the decision. If I hold and they get approval, I will not hold it long as it’s not a blockbuster drug.

I hope you don’t mind, but I’m going to post this on my DD Thread. I’ll post when and if I get out.

Good Luck and Thxxxxxxxxxx
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post #65 of 72
1/24/10 at 8:58am
Hey I'm going to bed but I thought I would ask, where do you get your fundamental sheet info? That shows the assets/liabilities etc.Thanks! keep up the work btw!
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post #66 of 72
1/24/10 at 9:17am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by beehivesjoe View Post
Hey I'm going to bed but I thought I would ask, where do you get your fundamental sheet info? That shows the assets/liabilities etc.Thanks! keep up the work btw!
I just look at their financials, which you can get off the SEC site (10Q's, 10K's, and 8K's etc), but they can be found on other sites. To do FA you really only to look at their financials (balance sheets, income statements, statement of cash flows, etc). There are many other tools.
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post #67 of 72
1/24/10 at 9:28am
Thread Starter 
I had an F/A request for BBI (BlockBuster Video) last week, but I was busy so it's late.

First off, obviously any moron knows from the on-set, without any F/A on BBI can see problems. The current situation is obviously reflected on the charts (TA), as well- we know this. But for overnight holders of BBI, it's important to do F/A to see where they're presently.

I'm issuing a Bankruptcy Alert Watch , but most of the world already knows this, but I'll reiterate it. Their financials are awful. Their losses have improved from 2008, but their revenues have continued to decline.

You might be able to trade this, but expect a Chapter 7 or 11 filing soon. If they can avoid it, and gain market share from Netflix, there might be hope.



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post #68 of 72
1/25/10 at 5:37pm
Thread Starter 
Just found this.

Who's Closing Stores in 2010
By Tom Van Riper, Forbes.com
.The worst seems to be over, but retailing is still a tough business. These companies closed a lot of stores in 2009, and are likely to be closing more this year

Blockbuster
2009 store closures: 300

Outlook: Part of a two-year plan to close 960 stores, about 13 percent of Blockbuster's 7,100 locations in the Americas. The company is trying to reformulate with kiosks and on-demand services that focus on hot new releases, but experts say the costs associated with the transformation will be too expensive to pull off without a bankruptcy. Shares have plunged from $10 to under a dollar a share since 2005.
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post #69 of 72
1/26/10 at 4:56am
From Barron's:


Blockbuster: At The Point Of No Return?

By Eric Savitz

Blockbuster (BBI) appears to be at the beginning of the end.

The video store company’s shares are getting crushed after it warned late yesterday that Q4 results were far worse than expected.

The company said it now expects to report 2009 adjusted EBITDA of $190 million to $205 million, down from previous guidance of $270 million to $290 million. That’s despite efforts to boost advertising and increase store inventories. The weak results have triggered fresh concerns that the company’s troubles may simply be deep to ever overcome.

Janney Capital analyst Tony Wible, who has been one of the few bulls on the stock, today cut his rating to Neutral from Buy, setting a target price of 75 cents. “The miss clearly disappointing, but is more alarming given the underlying improvements in copy depth, title quality and the expected improvement in comps as BBI closed large numbers of under-performing stores,” he writes, adding that it now appears in-store rental comps actually got worse in Q4. He notes that the lower guidance will weight on management credibility, and keep investors skeptical about restructuring efforts.

BMO Capital analyst Jeffrey Logsdon, who has a Market Perform rating on the shares, cautions that “management is running thin on options to rebuild its business.”

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who already had a Neutral rating on the shares, cut his target in half to 75 cents from $1.50. Pachter thinks the company is losing share to both Netflix and Redbox at an accelerating rate. Given the news, he writes, “we must question how long the company can continue as a going concern given its rapidly deteriorating performance.”

BBI today is down 24.1 cents, or 33%, to 48.9 cents.

* «
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post #70 of 72
1/28/10 at 11:16pm
Hey USMC,

Got a request for you. I'm looking at CBAI as a lotto play to hold long term. I have a couple that I'm long on, and wanted to add this one. Obviously because of the low cost investment. Plus from what I've learned, they seem to be real, solid, and have growth potential.

So what I'm looking for is if they are shady in any way. Also would like to know if they look like they may have a debt problem, or are they financially sound?

Take your time, and thanks!
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post #71 of 72
1/28/10 at 11:37pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curt D View Post
Hey USMC,

Got a request for you. I'm looking at CBAI as a lotto play to hold long term. I have a couple that I'm long on, and wanted to add this one. Obviously because of the low cost investment. Plus from what I've learned, they seem to be real, solid, and have growth potential.

So what I'm looking for is if they are shady in any way. Also would like to know if they look like they may have a debt problem, or are they financially sound?

Take your time, and thanks!
CBAI right? I'll do some updated numbers. From the past, I know they're a legit company; however, they like to dilute. Also, their OS is around 4.5 billion if I recall correctly, so a R/S is possible. I'll get some updated info.
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post #72 of 72
1/28/10 at 11:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC View Post
CBAI right? I'll do some updated numbers. From the past, I know they're a legit company; however, they like to dilute. Also, their OS is around 4.5 billion if I recall correctly, so a R/S is possible. I'll get some updated info.
Thanks for the quick response. I remember they put out some PR's recently saying they wouldn't be doing anymore diluting. Now that you mention it, the R/S is what was worrying me at the time. If they did it to to get listed on the Nasdaq, I wouldn't mind, but generally an R/S is a death nail for an OTC company.

Thanks again for your time.
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