CHTP - Chelsea Therapeutics - Page 11

I've given lots of notice to help out fellow HSMers and reciprocate for some of the help I've received here. While I'm very comfortable in my biotech knowledge base, there are many here who understand finance vastly better than myself and I've appreciated their insights on non-biotech matters.

Anyway. Its not too late. Consider tiered buying, getting in now and jumping all over any retracement. AF and Biomedreports have both mentioned CHTP this week, but thats a minor reason behind the move. Barring a double dip, this is a VERY safe play, even with an entry point at 4 dollars..or 5 dollars.

Everything is relative. I should have said "very safe play for a microcap biotech."

I will hold through the 301 results and sleep like a baby the night before.

I jumped in at 3.96 which was high to start with. Only a small position. If it gets through the next two levels of resistance then I'll think about adding to average up a bit. If it does make a nice run before the decision I'll be playing it safe and selling most, if not all into the run. It's all about capital preservation for me right now, had a crappy week last week.

_I_ did not say that about CHTP last Sept nor was I holding CHTP last Sept. The current situation is vastly different than last September and shows a profound lack of understanding to suggest otherwise. It is a mistake to lump all drug trials and biotech stocks together and assume they have equal risk.

To those relatively new to biotechs, I would suggest those of you with the ability to do so, choose biotech plays by closely studying trial designs, preliminary data and the literature to identify those with the highest probability of success. Takes effort. Nothings free.

Once you have that down you'll also be in a much stronger position to play the technicals if thats your style. Everyone needs an edge. This type of approach can get you out ahead of the herd, and help you avoid being Feuerstein/Biomedreports sheeple. The billion dollar hedge funds etc hire science Ph.Ds to do biotech stock analysis. Why? Because it makes them money. Fundamentals do matter.

Can you lose money on CHTP? Absolutely. Not a sure thing. So diversify and minimize your risk of Gambler's infamous black swan events.

Full disclosure: I'm long CHTP. Have traded in and out over the last few months, but always had a core holding. I'm up over 75% on CHTP and hope the percentage goes much higher than that before we are done. Up around 200% on my biotechs since April. Still learning. Still tweaking.

By the way, this forum has been sleepy for months with nary a post. You'll make more money when you are in a stock BEFORE its volume goes up 15x.

The posts I've gotten the most out of on HSM are those that explain some of their rationale. I'm in CHTP because of fundamentals. But I also use the technicals. For me, using both together is better than relying only on one. One reason I gave a heads up about a week ago on CHTP was the technicals. Hopefully at least some of you got in. If you are still learning, might be worthwhile to go back and look at the CHTP charts. The big red candle on Aug 11 messed things up a bit, but you should have factored in that the red candle was not stock specific, but the market tanked that day--horrible day. Secondly, for a biotech microcap CHTP didn't get slammed that bad--not as bad as some blue chips. Thirdly, CHTP is/has been rising while the market is declining. Fourthly, not so much technicals, but that this price action would force some funds off the sidelines was highly predictable.

Looking great today!

Yes. Some people are waiting for a pullback to get in. Some shorting. Of course results are near that are highly likely to be favorable and take the stock to 7-11 dollars. Low number in a bad market, high number in a bull market. I would not be shocked if there was a retracement. But would not be shocked if there is no retracement. Further complicating the issue is that CHTP could go way way beyond 11 bucks when one takes into account the pipeline beyond NOH.

CHTP

I was a bit worried about this one after that candle 4 days ago with the long upper wick and the gap down the next day but it seems to have recovered nicely with the FDA news this morning.

Another thing to keep in mind is that CHTP is awaiting news on their phase 3 trial, for droxidopa which is due next month.

Here's a link to an article from BioMedReports that sums up both events:

http://biomedreports.com/articles/mo...s-fda-nod.html

This one's made a nice recovery today after that pullback. A close over 4 will give it a nice bullish engulfing candle.

What a close yesterday 4.07 and 50k share buy at the end. Steady ask hitting all day.

Expecting this will test those resistance points you have on your previous chart again Drew. Looking forward to the Phase 3 Results. Could send this thing Sky high.

You're not going to hold through the decision are you?.....anything can happen with these FDA plays man. If you're up, I would get out, but that's just me....

Agreed, the safe play is to get out before the decision, or hold some freebies. Hope everyone makes some money on this one. Had a real strong close yesterday with some big orders right at EOD.

I always bail out when I get a reasonable profit. Never ever let my profits slip away.

This from BMR today

Still performing well in anticipation of key data and other news, shares of Chelsea Therapeutics International, Ltd. (Nasdaq:CHTP) have been drifting higher since we told our subscribers about developments and upcoming catalysts on August 20th, 2010.

In late June, the Company successfully reached its target enrollment of 150 patients in its Northera(TM) (Droxidopa) pivotal Phase III Study 301 for the treatment of symptomatic, neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (NOH). Results from the trial are expected sometime this month (September 2010) and the full registration program is on track to initiate a new drug application (NDA) in the first half of 2011.

Yesterday, the stock was listed by SmartTrend as one of the ones to watch as it is "one of the best performing low-priced stocks."

Shares of Chelsea Therapeutics International are currently trading at around $4.19-- well above their 50-day moving average (MA) of $3.16 and above their 200-day MA of $3.10.

In our initial report, we told subscribers that there are additional factors to conside, including the fact that the FDA is killing competitors to CHTP’s lead drug candidate, Northera. If approved, Northera will have a substantially larger market to fill and some analysts have projected the market size for their drug to be around $200-300M.

Playing the run-ups is a good strategy for many biotechs. It would not be wise to hold a majority of them through binary events.

Sometimes though you have to accept more risk to achieve the biggest reward, but the trick is choosing your spots carefully.

There is also money to be made from the predictability of the biotech traders.

GLTA. Only time will tell what the right approach was.

i always bail before a panel vote or an fda decision is about to come down. i gambled once on the vvus panel and will NOT be making that mistake again. except for maybe the ARNA panel....