Did a lot of people get in on this right before close when it was around .145? It shot up .022 in extended hours...
CBIS - Cannabis Science - Page 52
That's kind of obvious, though, isn't it? I'm not trying to offend, but no demand over .17 seems like something that can be observed after the fact, not something that can be used to actively trade the stock during the day.
No offense taken. I was just offering a simple explanation of supply/demand that is often overlooked.
It can be seen in real time using volume by price.
There is probably some trade here in the very short or very long term, but I don't see it.
The company is basically insolvent now. Current assets/current liabilities (6/2108) in 2011 is astonishing.
While they appear to have Intellectual Property assets I think this doesn't really exist. The cannabis derived molecule is no longer covered on any patent. The formulation can be protected but that really is quite insignificant as big pharma has teams of people who can develop different and probably better formulations. This is why most nutriceuticals are never formally tested in FDA-approved clinical trials. The company that pays for the trial is not the one that will likely benefit.
Add to that, the cost of IND just to file. ~100k, and all the work and support you are talking about 200k easily. This is before any clinical work is done. You need to bring on a clinical team (the company only has a couple employees now) and pay hospitals, doctors and the patients to be involved. That is likely to be about 1/4 the market cap of the company. Just for a small phase I study. Phase I is just safety so they won't even know if it works until they get into phase II.
So my thoughts are they will likely have an additional equity offering very soon (they have 352M of authorized 800M shares), take out additional debt or partner with big pharma (and lose most of their value). I can see a near doubling of shares within the next 6 months. Be careful of preferred shares on this company. They are using this like debt.
Just wanted to warn everyone here about what I see.
Just goes to show that I need to get up at 4am to watch the market. It's hard trading early hours here in Hawaii due to a 6 hour difference. I carelessly was playing this without a stop in place otherwise my profits would have been protected at .17¢ this morning. I'm hoping this thing runs back up to the .16¢ then I will dump half of my shares and then if it goes below .15¢ I will exit completely. Otherwise I will exit completely if it goes below .12¢.
They wiped out all the stops yesterday and scared off the all weak longs, now there are not many to sell and just taking it back up so easily.
However, that low volume concerns me a bit at 0.16 level there was huge traded volume and some of that supply can come in once it reach that level.
But, if MMs bid it up quickly through 0.16 and 0.17 level, then most of that supply will hold and watch for 0.24 level, any hesitation at those levels can bring relatively high volume of supply and push down the price
Raging bull, hope you bought them back at 0.145 level, I still think it is a good idea to hold it over the weekend and see what happens on Monday and Tuesday. Obviously, it already sold off and documentary discussion over the weekend can bring new investors on Monday but certainly wont hurt.
Market makers here are showing willingness to mark it higher and more often than not, they will succeed.
Edited by Philosuffer - 4/4/12 at 9:52am
Pretty strong support and absorption at 0.15 level, look at the time and sales, the support becomes obvious.
Around 0.153 someone placed an ask for 255k shares (last column in the pic below) and it dropped back to 0.1501 but then MMs started accepting the volume there and even a block of 169k were bought at 0.1505, signalling support.
Whoever owns that 255k shares, wants an exit. Placed bids at 0.153, then .1525, then .151 after that withdrawn. Again placed it at 0.152.
I thought this would demonstrate how to use time and sales to analyze the behavior to the new traders.
I know one can say how do you know it is the same person but usual volume is around 20 to 40k. The fact that 255k chased the bid down shows that the person is desperate to get out and looking for exit.
Knowing this, I think MM will hold it down till the person sells or even push it down below 15 for a minute to scare him further into selling at the bid.
This is the reason, I typically dont place a bid to buy or sell and wait in the system. MM can see your bid and play around it. Your buy bid will be hit only if it is going much lower and your sell ask will be filled only if it is going higher. I will buy at the ask and sell at the bid prices without giving a chance for them see my order much ahead of time. Of course, even if you place an order to buy at the bid price, algos can see that bid milli seconds ahead and play around it but the manipulation would be much smaller.
Same logic applies to stop orders as well. MMs can see your stop orders and bring the price down to trigger them. Even if one cannot see the stop orders, it is pretty commonsense that people place stops and a quick drop below will wipe those stops and then can climb back up. Easy technique. I recommend using mental stops if you are actively trading. In my opinion, most of the time those stops will make people exit at the low points.
Edited by Philosuffer - 4/4/12 at 10:52am
185k bid at 0.15 and 5k ask at 0.151.
Anyone waiting to get long, this would be a good time to get on board.
All sellers were nearly flushed out and not much selling activity at this price level. Low volume coupled with high bid is a precursor for the price spike.
I think it is coming very soon. The downside risk is minimal for the next 4 days with pretty nice upward potential.