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GMCR - Keurig Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc - Page 3

post #41 of 241
is it a good idea to get a spec call in case of a crazy realy due to the split? surely people priced it in?
post #42 of 241
I really like the odds playing GMCR long going into the split, we've got the earnings beatdown that created a big gap, what looks like a MA pattern with subsequent beatdown that has most likely finished up, a recent uptrend, and this is all going into the split. This should be a great play. I sold my shares a day later so have none now but it's on my short list for swing plays.
post #43 of 241
I wish options exp wasn't so close to the split day, but still might be able to grab some calls for a quick trade.
post #44 of 241
Those calls won't be as liquid post-split. Stock is a good play at 70.xx going into split, IMO. Might pick up some this evening. I believe shares reflect split at open tomorrow?
post #45 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post
Those calls won't be as liquid post-split. Stock is a good play at 70.xx going into split, IMO. Might pick up some this evening. I believe shares reflect split at open tomorrow?
yes, 3:1
post #46 of 241
My best trade yet...

In at $77.44 back on May 14th - out today at $30.81. Keep in mind there was a 3:1 split in there too...

post #47 of 241
stock got absolutely hammered afterhours after a report came out saying that the SEC was investigating their accounting practices... blood on the streets real soon
post #48 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post
stock got absolutely hammered afterhours after a report came out saying that the SEC was investigating their accounting practices... blood on the streets real soon

They've been roasted
post #49 of 241
Man, these guys are pushing K-cups and their INSANE margins (don't know for fact but it seems certain those are way high margin), they are all the rage... why would they even need to fudge anything? And burying the details in footnotes of footnotes on the 8K? Ouch.
post #50 of 241
Now if the error is immaterial, is this a buying opportunity or not? Did the company find the error and report it or was it found by the SEC? Seems from the wording that it was only one error made in 2007 which will not affect this years outcome or next. Am I reading that correct?

Quote:
Intercompany adjustment correction

In connection with the preparation of its financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter, the Company’s management discovered an immaterial accounting error relating to the margin percentage it had been using to eliminate the inter-company markup in its K-Cup inventory balance residing at its Keurig business unit. Management discovered that the gross margin percentage used to eliminate the inter-company markup resulted in a lower margin applied to the Keurig ending inventory balance effectively overstating consolidated inventory and understating cost of sales. Management determined that the accounting error arose during fiscal 2007 and analyzed the quantitative impact from that point forward to June 26, 2010.

As of June 26, 2010, there is a cumulative $7.6 million overstatement of pre-tax income. Net of tax, the cumulative error resulted in a $4.4 million overstatement of net income or a $0.03 cumulative impact on earnings per share.

After evaluating the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the error in accordance with applicable accounting literature, including Staff Accounting Bulletins published by the SEC, the Company, with the participation of the audit committee of the Board of Directors, has determined that the correction in the margin calculation represents a correction of an error in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification 250 Accounting Changes and Error Corrections, that the correction was not material to the fiscal years and the respective quarters ended 2007, 2008 and 2009 and that the Company anticipates that the correction will not be material to fiscal year 2010 and the respective quarters of fiscal 2010. As a result, the Company anticipates the cumulative amount of the accounting correction will be made in the quarter ended September 25, 2010.

The Company does not intend to provide further updates regarding the correction of this error or the Company’s results for fiscal year 2010 until its fiscal 2010 fourth quarter earnings release and conference call. Additional details regarding the correction of this error will be provided in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 25, 2010.

SEC inquiry

On September 20, 2010, the staff of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement informed the Company that it was conducting an inquiry and made a request for a voluntary production of documents and information. Based on the request, the Company believes the focus of the inquiry concerns certain revenue recognition practices and the Company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors. The Company, at the direction of the audit committee of the Company’s board of directors, is cooperating fully with the SEC staff’s inquiry.
post #51 of 241
it is usually never as good as it seems ie. dow 14000, or as bad, BP going bankrupt. straddle at the open if the IV isn't too high.
post #52 of 241
Thread Starter 
Oh man, ugly open for GMCR..

SEC investigations into how you recognize revenues is not a good thing for a stock thats been climbing like this :


chart.ashx?t=gmcr&ta=1&p=d&s=l
post #53 of 241
Thanks for pointing this out. Good short opp imo
post #54 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifesmystery View Post
Thanks for pointing this out. Good short opp imo
uhhh......watch for a dead cat bounce first. Watch the MAs closely, it's hitting the 50DMA and staying below that..for now. But the 200DMA is not that far at ~$28.58, so unless something else bad happens, it may hover between these two for a while.
post #55 of 241
Down 9% in the mid 28s today.....

Might still have ways to go...nice long term short.
post #56 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by pacman86 View Post
Might still have ways to go...nice long term short.
After looking at this 9 different ways, even though I'm 50-50ish on it, I think the drop's a bit overdone. They have not been charged, and neither have any findings been conclusive.

I took a tentative long position around the close yesterday.
post #57 of 241
Still 50-50 Kapone?
post #58 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximuxx View Post
Still 50-50 Kapone?
Oh, I got out like a bat out of hell at the open.
post #59 of 241
"Goldfarb Branham Law Firm Investigating Green Mountain Coffee Roasters for InvestorsLast update: 10/4/2010 4:31:00 PMDALLAS, Oct 04, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Goldfarb Branham LLP is investigating shareholder claims against officers and directors of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) due to the revelation that the Securities Exchange Commission was seeking documents regarding Green Mountain's accounting practices. Shareholders or anyone with knowledge of this SEC investigation are encouraged to contact the firm at 877-583-2855 or hlindley@goldfarbbranham.com. "Following the announcement of the SEC investigation, shares of the company fell from $37 to $27.47," securities lawyer Hamilton Lindley said. "A class action lawsuit has been filed over allegations of securities fraud which seeks to get investors paid back for their losses in Green Mountain stock." Goldfarb Branham LLP is investigating a derivative lawsuit against company officers and directors for allowing this to occur. Derivative lawsuits often lead to restored confidence in companies involved in financial scandal and a resulting increase in shareholder value. Concerned shareholders who still hold their shares are urged to contact attorney Hamilton Lindley at 877-583-2855 or hlindley@goldfarbbranham.com. SOURCE: Goldfarb Branham LLP "



Stock seems pretty low.Do you guys or girls see this going much lower?Its pretty much right at the 200 DMA right now.
post #60 of 241
I like GMCR AT $25-26 and will make a move around that value .. Otherwise Will wait for Sec news to see how this plays out!
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