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Rowdy's FDA Plays ... (and pinch plays, too)... - Page 9

post #161 of 678
Hey Rowdy, check out TSFG as a possible pincher play! Found it on Mitzer's thread and noticed a possible pinch for it.
post #162 of 678
Quote:
Originally Posted by 22rowdy View Post
There was a fundamentally-based, panic selling reaction to the Zicam news. Zicam accounted for 40% of sales last year, but the stock tanked by 72%.

It tanked at around $19.00; a 40% drop would have put the stock at around $11.40. Fundamentally, this was an over-reaction and I believe a price adjustment will happen over time. I imagine the least bit of good news will work wonders.

There will be lingering negativity surrounding Zicam, no doubt. However, I fail to see how the FDA will avoid sharing some of the blame for this incident, no matter how it turns out, which I see as a good thing for MTXX (in regards to proposed lawsuits).

Almost all pinchers will have fundamental issues, but the general principle is that these stocks became grossly over-sold over a period of time. A price correction from over-sold to neutral can be very profitable and that's the value of the pincher, imo.

Sure, MTXX closed up 18%, but it went from under 5.50 to 7.74 in one hour on the same day. That's pretty good.
Thanks for the explanation.
post #163 of 678
Thread Starter 

3 FDA play pullbacks happening right now

HGSI 2.72
BDSI 6.08
DDSS 2.61 (intraday)

If only I had more money...
post #164 of 678
Thread Starter 
Extreme FDA Calendar Trades: 18 Stocks Under $5
Posted by: Mike Havrilla in Untagged on Jul 03, 2009

http://biomedreports.com/blog/Extrem...s-Under-5.html

Extreme FDA Medical Device Trades: 7 Stocks Under $5
Posted by: Mike Havrilla in Untagged on Jul 05, 2009

http://biomedreports.com/blog/Extrem...s-Under-5.html

I'll be tearing through these this week; enjoy.

And bookmark this site if you haven't already; I check it daily.

http://biomedreports.com/blog.html
post #165 of 678
Thread Starter 

DYAX

I got a feeling this stock will be making new HODs pretty soon. Might close above that 200MA today for the first time since October; keep your eye on this one, boyz.
post #166 of 678
Thread Starter 

Pinchers for tomorrow and this week

I'm still trying to master getting in these as early as possible, so I'm looking at reversals and candlesticks:

Notable candlesticks from yesterday:
ANCI
BYOC
CTBK

Reversal potential:
CRBC
GSX

BLGM held a good bit of it's gains; let's see how these play out tomorrow and the rest of this week, GL.
post #167 of 678
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 22rowdy View Post
I got a feeling this stock will be making new HODs pretty soon. Might close above that 200MA today for the first time since October; keep your eye on this one, boyz.
DYAX...2.62 then...2.90 now...
post #168 of 678
stock-chart-str.aspx?id=DYMTF&ca=24062939






Looks like a nice bottom bounce maybe.
post #169 of 678
Here's a stockfetcher filter I made for the ADX triple pinch.

Price is above .001
Price is below 2
CMF(14) has been increasing for 2 days
MFI(7) is above MFI(14)

set{my_diff, PDI - MDI}
show stocks where my_diff > 0
and draw +DI
post #170 of 678
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtwichert View Post
Here's a stockfetcher filter I made for the ADX triple pinch.

Price is above .001
Price is below 2
CMF(14) has been increasing for 2 days
MFI(7) is above MFI(14)

set{my_diff, PDI - MDI}
show stocks where my_diff > 0
and draw +DI
Hmmm....wouldn't you want it to read:

show stocks where my_diff < 5 (or 10 or a small number) ?

I tried it and some of the returns aren't triple pinchers (some are). Try this, if you're interested (I added what I use):

Price is above .001
Price is below 2
CMF(14) has been increasing for 2 days
MFI(7) is above MFI(14)
ADX(14) is between 20 and 30
+DI(14) is between 20 and 30
-DI(14) is between 20 and 30

An average volume line is good, too. Your scan and mine both returned IMXC, which looks pretty dang good for a pinch move on the daily chart. Unfortunately, the intraday chart shows the move today and does not look so good in the short-term, but it's worth watching in case the volume comes in again tomorrow.

If you're interested in my opinion of your scan, I don't like to use "increasing" with an indicator; I only use that for increasing volume and it will severly limit your scan returns. I haven't scanned much with MFI but this is what I just tried:

Price is above .001
Price is below 2
MFI(7) crossed above 20
MFI(14) is below 20
ADX(14) is between 20 and 30
+DI(14) is between 20 and 30
-DI(14) is between 20 and 30

This returned GST, AMFI, AVU, VXGN, ITP (free version scan). AVU doesn't come up on stockcharts so it gets thrown out; ITP has low liquidity. AMFI is converging and not really a triple pinch, but it could form a DI bullish cross so I'll watch it. I'll check on these over the next few days and maybe we will can find a scan with nice returns. Thanks for your input and let me know how your scans (and tweaking of them) turn out.
post #171 of 678
COYN looking good.
post #172 of 678
Thread Starter 
I haven't had time for an educational update and I'm not sure when I will have the time, but I thought I'd ramble on for a bit.

Basically, I've got a goal and I'm behind schedule. To get back on schedule, I'm putting more capital into each trade. This increases overall risk so I'm playing some stocks on the major exchanges to mitigate this.

I'm closing out FRGY tomorrow which will leave 2 tiny positions in sub-penny stocks. They're freebies so I'll let them ride.

I've got 40% in DDSS and the other 60% I will divide between 2 trades. I will try to flip YRCW tomorrow or Thursday before I put 30% percent into ELY (a daily pincher, btw). ELY has earnings on the July 30th and I'm shooting for +40 to 50% by then. The other 30% is going into AMD, another earnings anticipation play. I will not hold this entire position through earnings, only freebies or a small portion assuming a gain.

I'm playing DDSS by ear, with a backup swing trade of HGSI. If those go south, it just means more AMD or ELY.

I haven't determined my next FDA play, but BIEL might be worth some change. I like the chart pattern, the consolidation, the anticipation, and more than one expected news date in the near future. GL.
post #173 of 678
Still using the pincher play method Rowdy? Never heard of before but saw the video on ihub, seems pretty interesting. How has it been working out for you?
post #174 of 678
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed98 View Post
Still using the pincher play method Rowdy? Never heard of before but saw the video on ihub, seems pretty interesting. How has it been working out for you?
It's like almost any strategy in that it works well in very liquid stocks. Generally speaking, a weekly pincher has a greater return and is more reliable than a daily pincher, and the same goes for a daily pincher compared to an intraday pincher.

I'm not convinced it's reliable enough for OTC:BB and Pinksheet stocks on anything higher than an intraday time frame, which is probably a good thing. I will jump into just about any extreme intraday pinch (otc's and pink's included) because the criteria make that stock grossly oversold over a matter of days and it has nowhere to go but up. You just have to figure out how far "up" that is, which has be difficult.

I've been doing well with the streaming TOS charts and pinchers. I made a killing on YRCW just last week. If you play around with this, it's imperative that you adjust the time frame on the indicators to smooth/filter the buy signals. A 1 minute chart with ADX, +DI, and -DI all at 14 will generate way too many signals.

That's probably more info than you were looking for, but let me put it like this, I only use ADX, PPO, and MFI on every chart I look at nowadays. It works.
post #175 of 678
One thing I've noticed Rowdy is a lot of these things are fast runners but then fast fallers just as quick. COYN for example ran up to .46 and then the very next day was back down to almost the point from which it first ran. What is your exit strategy? I know you've shed a little light on this topic, but I'd be interested to see what else you had running through the ol' cerebrum there. Perhaps it would be prudent to set psychological stop limits for oneself upon entering each pincher, i.e. sell after two days or sell if it hits "x" price. Just thinking out loud a bit here.
post #176 of 678
Rowdy

I know you said you have 40% in DDSS and you'll play it by ear. Are you starting to get a bad feeling on this one? Myself i'm wondering why with three days to go this thing is still going south and not at least holding steady.
post #177 of 678
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedStick View Post
One thing I've noticed Rowdy is a lot of these things are fast runners but then fast fallers just as quick. COYN for example ran up to .46 and then the very next day was back down to almost the point from which it first ran. What is your exit strategy? I know you've shed a little light on this topic, but I'd be interested to see what else you had running through the ol' cerebrum there. Perhaps it would be prudent to set psychological stop limits for oneself upon entering each pincher, i.e. sell after two days or sell if it hits "x" price. Just thinking out loud a bit here.
I play the pinchers just like every other stock. I either use a target date and a stop order or a target price (sell order) and a mental (psychological) stop. Target dates are usually fundamentally-driven and target prices are usually based on support/resistance.

The only time exception to either of those rules is "letting freebies ride" and I usually have a price target for those, too, at minimum. Even with target dates I almost always have a target price where I take some off of the table. You must always be flexible with your targets and never give up an inch on your stop; the plan is much more important than the setup.

Quote:
Originally Posted by road_reclaimer View Post
Rowdy

I know you said you have 40% in DDSS and you'll play it by ear. Are you starting to get a bad feeling on this one? Myself i'm wondering why with three days to go this thing is still going south and not at least holding steady.
I don't worry over FDA plays or any other play, for that matter. The only thing that could even be construed as "worrying" is when I worry over a particular plan for that trade. In that case, when I haven't nailed down every detail of an entry, an exit, and a time frame, I don't enter the trade. And I won't enter until I have plan that I won't second guess. With DDSS, my stop was 2.20 and it hasn't hit. I will get out tomorrow if the chance is there, Friday at the latest. I will take what's there and would like leave a small position on the table for a possible approval. That's all there is to it.
post #178 of 678
Thread Starter 

Upcoming FDA Plays

I'm looking at ACCP right here, expecting news from the conference at the end of this month. The dip seems to be ending and I like the support in the 1.80's. The more I look at this pharma, the more I'm inclined to start trading it and accumulate a long position.

I'm also trying to nail down expected news on these:

AEZS
LIXT
SUPG
YMI (this is a good one, fellas; super solid fundamentals, might go long here, too)

I'll let you know what I find out (and expect the same from you )...
post #179 of 678
Thread Starter 

More FDA Plays, weeeeeee!!!

I just went bonkers updating threads with news and dates from biomedreports.com.

Search my posts or search these tickers on the forum:

SPPI
ACCP
BMRN
TRGY
CADX
EXAS
BIEL

If I can beat the FDA response on SPPI; that's probably what I will try to do. A response run and then done...for about 45 days on that one, at least. BIEL has potential news soon but it's way too risky for a large position; I might throw some change at it, but not very much. GL.
post #180 of 678
Thank you for the updates Rowdy. Seems like the most of the big players are mum lately.
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