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Rowdy's FDA Plays ... (and pinch plays, too)...

post #1 of 678
Thread Starter 
*Update* June 7, '09
Alright, I'm adjusting my thread. Simply put, I can't compete with the experience of traders like simon, kevin, ec, and too many others here on HSM to list. If I tried really hard, I'd be hard pressed to top their picks with other picks of my own. Besides, I have no desire to waste time doing that; I'm perfectly happy looking at the stocks that reliable members alert on this forum and filtering them through my own research.

Since that realization, I've been wondering how I can make a better contribution here. The answer came pretty easily to me after FGOCE made me 50% last Monday. It was a "pincher" and I've spent quite a bit of time lately exploring this type of play. Excluding myself, I haven't seen it mentioned here at all, to my recollection. So that's where I'm taking this thread. I'll be exploring pincher plays that I come across, in addition to those mentioned on other forums by traders with a lot more experience than myself.

I've also made a decision on the criteria of the stocks I will play. Breakouts/continuation, pinchers, uptrending, and FDA plays. That's it. No PR-anticipating or illiquid wastes-of-time allowed, no matter if they're sub-penny, penny, or NYSE stocks. For that matter, I will only discuss pinchers and FDA plays in this thread. Look at the other members for breakouts and uptrenders, that's what I do.


Well, I've spent a ridiculous amount of time these past 2 weeks trying to figure out if I can come up with a heavily TA-biased trading system that fits my lifestyle. When I say TA-baised, I mean the only Fundamental research I will be doing on these stocks is scanning PR headers with, perhaps, an occasional click-on-a-link, in order to avoid obvious red flags.

I can't update this thread during market hours nor can I access real-time quotes at work due to restrictions on government computers; I will embrace these factors instead of fighting against them and, did I mention I don't have a choice?

That being said, these picks are not for day trading. My eventual goal is to be able to make swing/weekly picks, but, for right now, I'm still fine-tuning the set-ups and triggers so I can't give a specific time-frame on these picks. Weeks, not months is what I'm hoping for.

I won't bore you with the detailed criteria of these picks because this system, quite frankly, might not work. To summarize, I'm looking for prices that have strayed from their moving averages and should rebound back towards them. This concept is not new; it's popular, simple, tried, tested, and true.

Anyone will tell you MA's are lagging indicators and particularly useful in an uptrending market, which is where we will all be at in a matter of time (hence the testing). As this market recovers, I'd like to be done with experimentation so I can move on to application (making $$$).

I'm experimenting with my money; I should warn you not to experiment with yours, but you probably wouldn't listen. Since, we're both here, let's at least try to learn from each other. GL.

All valuable input is appreciated. I'd especially like to hear from simon, eastcoast, kevin, etc. (you know who you are) and TYIA.
post #2 of 678
Thread Starter 
Please do not buy these picks off of my "say-so". This is a test. I will not be actually buying every "Buy" pick. Charts might not be included because I stare at them enough as it is...

Current Holdings/ Entry Price/ Date
EBHI /.39 / 16 Apr 09
DSUP /.29/ 16 Apr 09

Current Watchlist
SIX
ENSL
XOMA
TMM
AAU
BWTR

Oh yeah, currently looking at pps between .01 and 1, no pinks. No shorting nonsense, too. Here's to hoping this is not a total disaster. If you don't like a pick, please tell my why. Thanks.
post #3 of 678
Thread Starter 
Ah yes, when the DOW gains >1%, it makes us all look smarter than we really are.

I edited the second post because BWTR did not actually trigger so it was moved to the watchlist. EBHI has not actually triggered either, but I like that stock and expect it trigger soon so I'm rolling the dice on that one. In summary, my only real trigger thus far is DSUP.

DSUP had a nice day at 2X the average volume and was up 15% at one point.

XOMA is very close to a buy and was up 12.5% late in the day before the sellers whacked it back down. Still on the watchlist.

On a side note, one might notice that these stocks are in a downtrend. Well most people already know that MA's are a good indicator in an uptrend, even if they are a lagging indicator. The real test is making a system work in a downtrend so I'm trying to master this area first. It's a lot easier to make money in an uptrending market or stock so I'm not too concerned with that aspect for the time being.
post #4 of 678
Thread Starter 

Fantastic Friday

Unfortunately, I had to fly today and could not even look at the market while it was open. That is another major challenge I just have to deal with. The fact that some triggers went off today sucks, but that's to be expected. We'll look at the brightside, it was an exciting day for my evolving system. Let's get to it:

DSUP triggered yesterday and then craps out a slighty seller-biased doji today. The good news is the volume doubled for the second day in a row. The bad news is only one side will win (bulls or bears) and I can't predict which side that will be. Disciplined stop loss and finger-crossing, imo.

EBHI triggered today as I suspected it would; it also formed a dragonfly doji in the process. Looking really good.

XOMA triggered at the open and ended up +12%. Missing better entry points are the breaks of the game; I won't actually play this here, but if I did, I'd look for a good entry on Monday and I expect more upside from there. 1.7m in volume today or about 2.5X the average might have jump started some momentum and my guess is that it has.

TMM triggered today but I'm skeptical. This is one of the poorer setups and a +10-15% gain is about as far as I would go, after which, I wouldn't look back.

BWTR's trigger went off around midday and went up almost 10% from there to close. I'm not worried about a mediocre entry here because this pick has some serious potential.

ENSL triggered late yesterday and I somehow missed it. It's up 25% on it's highest volume in 3 months and I refuse to chase it at this point. I might have missed out and that will happen; we'll keep an eye on it just for kicks.

SIX gets further demolished today on lingering bankruptcy PR's. This is actually good for a pick on our watchlist because the further the fall, the higher the rebound. I will jump in on a trigger or hint of reversal here.

That's it for now. It was the most eventful of the last 3 days and next week could be fun. I hate to say it, but I need the DOW to decline a bit to test this system out more effectively.

17 Apr Update:

Test Positions
BWTR @ .44
DSUP @ .29
XOMA @ .46
EBHI @ .39
TMM @ .70

Test Watchlist
ENSL
SIX
AAU

Realistic expectations mean I can't expect all these picks to be gainers, much less all big gainers. Bad picks are fine if I exercise discipline. I'm only looking at stocks from $.10 to $1 right now and it's a lot of work. It seems overwhelming to consider filtering through all stocks above $.10, but, at the same time, there's much more potential there, too. Maybe some day... GL.
post #5 of 678
Thread Starter 
Here's some new additions that I'd consider playing Monday; watchlist is approaching 30 and I don't even want to look a computer screen tomorrow. PM me if you want the whole list.

ARNA
EPIX
GBM
GM
HTCH

GL this week.
post #6 of 678
Thread Starter 
Before I go over the results, there are a few things to note. The picks I don't play are good for back-testing. Also, I'm not looking for big gains in a downtrend without a reversal signal; I don't want to buck the trend, just take small profits without considering shorting.

Well, I'm a good news kinda guy so let's start there:

BWTR ran from .41 to .58; I'd have been out at .53 and it is removed.

XOMA was up 20% at one point but I think it has more room; we'll see.

ENSL ran to +30% after I missed the trigger and has since fallen. That's why we don't chase; removed.

SIX (now SIXF) got re-listed on the OTC:BB and opened yesterday at .13. It triggered the same day and I'll "pretend" to play it here.

And the bad:

AAU had an active Monday but never triggered. Removed.

EBHI triggered and looked like it could reverse. Wrong. Stopped out at .31 or -20%.

TMM was headed for +10%...I thought. I would have gotten out there and it didn't happen. Out at .29 or -20%.

DSUP looked good last week, closed Friday on a doji, dropped a terrific Chapter 11 PR on Sunday, and opened Monday at .065! This why I don't recommend TA-only trading, but I'm not concerned with that because this is a test. I'm only scanning PR's for backtesting, meaning an unexpected move that was PR-driven will be noted but not considered in the results.

Test Positions
SIXF @ .17
XOMA @ .45

One has to consider yesterday's DOW plummet and, while I did hope for a small decline, it's hard to test a system on extreme days. However, I'm not happy with the results, thus far, and will be fine-tuning the scanning criteria before I add more stocks to the test. I will probably put more emphasis on volume and possible reversal to see if that weeds out some losers. Hopefully, I will have a new list this week.
post #7 of 678
Thread Starter 

Quick update

AAU might be running; I'll have to take a closer look and see why I had it removed.

Still watching SIXF and XOMA.

New additions to watch: EVSO, NPSP, AIRN, CVBTE. gl.
post #8 of 678
Thread Starter 

Off-topic Pondering

Alright, this is a post to remind me (and perhaps you, too) what happens to nice people when they get greedy.

My wife loves Deal or No Deal and we just watched a very nice, albeit large (read overweight), man walk away with the $1 case. Granted, he did win $10k as a side bonus, but that's hardly any consolation...

The amazing part is that with 3 cases left, there were 2 ONE MILLION DOLLAR cases left and 1 ONE DOLLAR CASE. At this point, the rotund fellow has a 66% chance of winning ONE MILLION DOLLARS. The banker offers him $600k+ and he doesn't take it; that's fine, I wouldn't have either. The risk/reward was in his favor.

The next case he opens is 1 of the 2 remaining ONE MILLION DOLLAR cases. He now has a 50/50 chance of walking away with either ONE MILLION DOLLARS or ONE DOLLAR. The banker offers him $400k+ and his mother attempts to talk some sense into him while I am trying to communicate with him, telepathically through the TV, the concept of an EXIT STRATEGY.

Yeah, so our hero doesn't take the deal and opens his case, which contains the $1 sign. I have no idea where they get people for this show, but I've yet to see someone who doesn't weird me out in some way. With 3 cases to go, he played the odds and I would have, too. With 2 cases to go, the odds didn't just play him; they owned him like an overpaid domina matrix. Sure, he could've won a mil; all that matters is he didn't.

If this is not a perfect analogy for getting greedy in the stock market, I'm not sure what is. Don't get greedy; have an exit strategy and stick to it. Take your profits before Howie Mandel beats you to it.

Hopefully, the next time I'm trying to over-analyze the risk/reward scenario of an investment, I'll remind myself about the nice fat guy that got whipped by the odds and weebled away with $1 instead of $400k. I do not want to be that guy.
post #9 of 678
ok Rowdy, since you seem to be doing a heck of a lot of research, are you actually finding stocks that are paying off?
post #10 of 678
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by drumlawyer View Post
ok Rowdy, since you seem to be doing a heck of a lot of research, are you actually finding stocks that are paying off?
Nope, at least not in the context of this thread. But I'm trying to find something I can use that doesn't require me to keep tabs on every swing or short-term trade all hours of the day.

If you have the time to do intra-day DD, you should follow eastcoasttrader's thread very closely. kevin612's heads up thread and simon's breakout II thread are also excellent, while catering more towards swing/weekly trades. simon (aka simonyadig) explains his trades in much more detail on http://itradepennystocks.com and I visit his site daily. Always do your own DD, but these guys have excellent scanning techniques and a proven track record. TOMMYGUN and Rob have nice threads, too.

This is more of a journal for me while I try what works and what doesn't. If I ever remove the (Test In Progress) in the thread title, that would be a good sign to check back. GL.
post #11 of 678
Thread Starter 
Alright, I took a little different approach for scans and basically removed the MA altogether. The bad news is I might need to edit the thread title... The good news is I came across some stocks in my scans that some other respectable members have already mentioned, in particular ICO and VVTV (this was on simon's watchlist not long ago).

For now, I'm watching EGT this week. Earnings call on May 14 and setup nicely for a move; nice volume Friday, too. I'll try to add some others tonight if I can.

This is still a test, don't buy these, please!!!
post #12 of 678
we may not see eye to eye on EESO, but, you are welcome to come and give your opinions on the picks we have in our watchlist at my thread... put aside our differences on EESO and give your serious take on the picks, after all, we are all after the same thing... gains, no?
post #13 of 678
Quote:
Originally Posted by 22rowdy View Post
Nope, at least not in the context of this thread. But I'm trying to find something I can use that doesn't require me to keep tabs on every swing or short-term trade all hours of the day.

If you have the time to do intra-day DD, you should follow eastcoasttrader's thread very closely. kevin612's heads up thread and simon's breakout II thread are also excellent, while catering more towards swing/weekly trades. simon (aka simonyadig) explains his trades in much more detail on http://itradepennystocks.com and I visit his site daily. Always do your own DD, but these guys have excellent scanning techniques and a proven track record. TOMMYGUN and Rob have nice threads, too.

This is more of a journal for me while I try what works and what doesn't. If I ever remove the (Test In Progress) in the thread title, that would be a good sign to check back. GL.
thanks -- it is truely guys like you that are helping the common man! And I WILL keep monitoring
post #14 of 678
Thread Starter 
I'm mostly looking to avoid penny stocks these days, except for a select few. That being said, I came across this tonight and will be actually be buying a small position.

NMKT

I like this chart, and a delayed audited 10K is expected soon with anticipated record revenues for 2008; this following record revenues in 2007. It's rare to find audited financials in a penny and with some nice TA indicators, I'm pulling the trigger tomorrow.

ODP came up on the scans and Cramer just mentioned it Friday. Seems like a no-brainer, so I'm buying; let's see how it all works out. gl.
post #15 of 678
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 22rowdy View Post
ODP came up on the scans and Cramer just mentioned it Friday. Seems like a no-brainer, so I'm buying; let's see how it all works out. gl.
How sad is it when you have to quote yourself?...

1st Q '09 earnings are Tuesday and I'd be buying with unsettled funds that won't settle until Wednesday. After their last 10K and Quarterly results...no thanks. Sorry, Cramer.
post #16 of 678

ODP

just a note - because you identified it, I did some D/D, and bought. THANK YOU! for the 411 - I was all positive and made profits
post #17 of 678
Thread Starter 

SSW

I'm having a real hard time convincing myself to not go for a daytrade on SSW tomorrow. Tons of peeps bailed because they slashed this year's dividend even though they were profit-positive for the quarter.

Just a head's up.

I did get in ODP, on an unsettled-funds gamble and got some NMKT, as well. If I have time, I'll update later.
post #18 of 678
Thanks 22rowdy,

will be following your blog and learning!
post #19 of 678
Thread Starter 
I haven't had time to do a lot with this thread lately, so for the time being, I'll just be putting links to the stock threads that I'm looking at, after I update them.

I did change the thread title, to reflect the changes in the way I'm doing things. Simply put, I was using Moving Averages in an attempt to catch stocks as they bottomed out, in order to find an optimal entry point. Unfortunately, this has proved to be "not as reliable as I prefer." It could work, but there are better proven and much more reliable methods.

I made a killing this week on continuation moves. Some might call these breakouts or reversal confirmations; the wordage is not important as long as the idea is the same. It's much easier to catch a continuation move than it is to catch a reversal. I'll try to attempt a meager explanation below:



There are other indicators you need to use but that's the general idea. I got in MESA at .12 and sold 75% of my position at .20. I've already locked in a small profit and have 25% of my position left to see if the trend continues (with zero risk). If it breaks below my entry point, I sell.

More later.
post #20 of 678
Thread Starter 
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