BP - BP PLC (NYSE) - Page 121

Congratulations; great call on that!
I'm just trying to keep my head above water. I don't have the steel guts to short yet...perhaps I should try?

Why not buy puts instead of shorting?

With this economy, I make lots more money playing SHORTs than LONGs

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2208...ce=marketwatch

Why was this buried in the `other' news? Would have been nice to see it before I sunk my money into this dead fish this morning.

some brainstorming on the legal side tmrw

Haha, yeah.. and then there is 'Danielle' to ponder. When a storm gets that big that fast, all forecast bets are off.

Still short, waiting for $12 to cover before b/k





Gulf Oil Plume Is Not Breaking Down Fast, Research Says
By JUSTIN GILLIS and JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF
Published: August 19, 2010


New research confirms the existence of a huge plume of dispersed oil deep in the Gulf of Mexico and suggests that it has not broken down rapidly, raising the possibility that it might pose a threat to wildlife for months or even years.


The study, the most ambitious scientific paper to emerge so far from the Deepwater Horizon spill, casts some doubt on recent statements by the federal government that oil in the gulf appears to be dissipating at a brisk clip. However, the lead scientist in the research, Richard Camilli, cautioned that the samples were taken in June and circumstances could have changed in the last two months.

The paper, which is to appear in Friday's issue of the journal Science, adds to a welter of recent, and to some extent conflicting, scientific claims about the status of the gulf. While scientists generally agree that the risk of additional harm at the surface and near the shore has diminished since the well was capped a month ago, a sharp debate has arisen about the continuing risk from oil in the deep waters.

So far, scientific information about the gulf has emerged largely from government reports and statements issued by scientists. Many additional research papers are in the works, and it could be months before a clear scientific picture emerges.

The slow breakdown of deep oil that Dr. Camilli's group found had a silver lining: it meant that the bacteria trying to eat the oil did not appear to have consumed an excessive amount of oxygen in the vicinity of the spill, alleviating concerns that the oxygen might have declined so much that it threatened sea life. On this point, Dr. Camilli's research backs statements that the government has been making for weeks.

Dr. Camilli, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Mass., said the plume, at the time he studied it, was dissipating so slowly that it could still be in the gulf many months from now. Assuming that the physics of the plume are still similar to what his team saw in June, "it's going to persist for quite a while before it finally dissipates or dilutes away," he said.

Concentrations of hydrocarbons in the plume were generally low and declined gradually as the plume traveled through the gulf, although Dr. Camilli's team has not yet completed tests on how toxic the chemicals might be to sea life.

In a report on Aug. 4, a team of government and independent scientists organized by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimatedthat 74 percent of the oil from the leak had been captured directly from the wellhead; skimmed, burned, dispersed chemically or by natural processes; evaporated from the ocean surface; or dissolved into microscopic droplets.

The report found that the remaining 26 percent of the oil had mostly washed ashore or collected there, was buried in sand and sediment, or was still on or below the surface as sheen or tar balls.

While the government report expressed concern about the continuing impact of the spill, it was widely viewed as evidence that the risk of additional harm in the gulf was declining.

This week, scientists at the University of Georgia, who in May were among the first to report the existence of the large plume studied by Dr. Camilli's team, sharply challenged the government's assessment. They contended that the government had overestimated rates of evaporation and breakdown of the oil.

"The idea that 75 percent of the oil is gone and is of no further concern to the environment is just incorrect," said Samantha Joye, a professor of marine sciences at the University of Georgia. She has studied the spill extensively but has not yet published her results.

Responding to the criticism, Jane Lubchenco, the NOAA administrator, said the government stood by its calculations. "Some of those numbers we can measure directly," she said. "The others are the best estimates that are out there."

Dr. Lubchenco has noted repeatedly that some of the remaining oil existed in the form of undersea plumes and cautioned that this subsurface oil could pose a threat to marine life.

In another report this week, researchers from the University of South Florida said they had found oil droplets scattered in sediment along the gulf floor and in the water column, where they could pose a threat to some of the gulf's most important fisheries.

The dispersed oil appeared to be having a toxic effect on bacteria and on phytoplankton, a group of micro-organisms that serves as a vital food for fish and other marine life, the scientists said, although they cautioned that further testing was needed.

Dr. Camilli's paper tends to support the view that considerable oil may be lingering below the surface of the gulf. He said he was not especially surprised by the slow rate of breakdown, considering that the waters of the gulf are about 40 degrees Fahrenheit in the vicinity of the plume.

"In colder environments, microbes operate more slowly," Dr. Camilli said. "That's why we have refrigerators."

For weeks, BP, the company that owned the out-of-control well, disputed claims from scientists that a huge plume of dispersed oil droplets had formed in the gulf, with its chief executive at the time, Tony Hayward, declaring at one point, "There aren't any plumes." (BP subsequently acknowledged the existence of dispersed oil and pledged $500 million for research on the environment of the gulf.)

NOAA, while initially skeptical, ultimately confirmed the existence of such plumes. The new paper appears to dispel any lingering doubt, providing detailed evidence that one major plume and at least one minor plume existed and contained large quantities of hydrocarbons, albeit dispersed into tiny droplets.

Dr. Camilli's team measured the main plume at roughly 3,600 feet below the surface; it extended for more than 20 miles southwest of the well. It was more than a mile wide in places and 600 feet thick, traveling at about four miles a day.

At the time his team studied it in June, the plume appeared to have narrowed from measurements reported early in the spill by a team that included Dr. Joye and Vernon Asper, a marine scientist from the University of Southern Mississippi, but Dr. Camilli's results otherwise matched their report.

The slow breakdown of the plume, if verified by additional research, suggests that scientists may find themselves tracking the toxic compounds from BP's well and trying to discern their impact on sea life for a long time.

"I expect the hydrocarbon imprint of the BP discharge will be detectable in the marine environment for the rest of my life," Ian MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University, told Congress in prepared testimony on Thursday. "The oil is not gone and is not going away anytime soon."

i am still confident within 2 or 3 months bp will be back at 50-55 dollars a share

As they are selling off assets to pay their ever growing bills???

ok there is some cons to BP but they still have a real legit business that makes a TON of money throughout the world, maybe i was a little optimistic in saying 2 or 3 months, but i still see this thing going 50+ at some point a year from now

I was actually a big bull on BP anywhere below the 30 level. I sold everything almost a month ago around the 37 level and looking to get back in. I agree, my price target fundamentally is around 45, but I've been a little concerned with all the assets BP has been selling off. I don't think investors are seeing the long term effect this will have on their WACC and Cash Flows.

BP fell below support at 35.50, but filled the gap at 34 making a nice trading range. I suspect BP will remain in this range until the market finds support and oil trends upwards. I don't like BP above 40, but I'm a buyer around these levels. BP has a great balance sheet and if this was any other company I wouldn't be so confident. I think you'll be kicking your feet not picking BP up around these levels to hold long term. Look at their cash flows, revenue, profit margins, and growth. I don't think it will, but I'd love to get BP around 30 again.

On the TA side, I'm a buyer if BP can break above 35.50 and I'll pick up more if it can break above 36.

Still short some @ 41. I'm holding out until hurricane season passes- the next two months will be telling, either way. BP/ gov. is full of shit about the oil being gone. It is deep below, and I'm betting that it will rear its ugly head sooner rather than later.

I wish I had sold at 41 and shorted.
I went to cuba last week and this stock plummeted 3 dollars on me =(
But still up seeing as I bought in at 29 =)

Agreed. My Target price to sell this was around 45. I think BP still has strong fundamentals. But I dont think it will exceed 45. I however am still holding.

Katrina was a late August storm. We are only getting to 'E' on the list this year so far. How is that cleanup in the marshland going? I heard that BP is mostly gone now that the press left. I took profit today.

I like it short over 38, go to it!!

Surf's coming, Earl may come straight through the state and cross over to the gulf; happens a lot.

Selling I think
37 has been a high for awhile

Updated Charts. Unfortunately, my capital was tied in other stocks on the break. But I've freed some up now and will be a buyer on Monday.

BP - Daily



The stock is showing strong momentum and the gap held as expected. I still like the stock fundamentally and I see it breaking through to the 40 range. I think the stock will continue to trade sideways for awhile until we get confirmation on expenses and fines.

Looks like it broke through the trendline on Friday.

Lol, I guess that's a sign of addiction. I completely forgot Monday was labor day. Maybe its because I still have school...what kind of country do we live in

BP is stepping up asset sales 33% from $30B to $40B.. XOM is beginning to drool but is waiting for the 'penalty price' to be determined, especially if BP is found grossly negligent they would be a much cheaper takeover target. But otoh, if XOM waits too long and BP gets off light the pps may increase exponentially. I'm just glad I covered my 41's last week.

I missed my August takeover prediction @ 12.00 by A LOT Never expected you guys to be wanting to own this pos over $20

So if I may, let's go for September, takeover @ 12.00 by end of month! Hurricane season is only getting warmed up, the congress is going to get these fines and charges levied asap to help with mid-term elections back home, and there is a butt-load of oil lurking somewhere in the gulf of Mexico... waiting to get stirred up