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CSTR - Coinstar Inc - Page 9

post #161 of 248
1/19/11 at 8:23am
Philadelphia. Blockbuster @ 10 miles (Total count: 10)



Redbox over yet another smaller area (Again, "of 50", so no telling how many there actually are):



I can do this all evening, but I think my point has been made.
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post #162 of 248
1/19/11 at 9:01am
new releases
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post #163 of 248
1/19/11 at 9:42am
Yes, streaming is the future...but how far into the future? 40% of homes in this country still don't have broadband. They can't stream at all. Less than half of all homes even have an HDTV right now, which is surprising to a lot of people.

And again, there's the net neutrality issue. Pretty soon, Comcast is going to be able to charge companies like Netflix exorbitant fees to stream movies to Comcast subscribers as Comcast and their ilk attempt to monopolize their own streaming offerings. That's going to stifle progress. And then there's the issue of all these companies offering internet with bandwidth caps. 25 gigs a month may sound like a lot, but let me tell you, you can use it up real fast (my average bandwidth consumption, for example, is almost 150 gigs a month).

As you say, the thumb drive thing is the next evolution, and it's already being tested. You'll be able to buy USB 3.0 drives, plug them into a Redbox machine, pick whatever movie you want, it'll download the thing to your thumb drive in about 10 seconds, and you'll have 3 days to take it home and plug it either directly into your TV or a Roku-like device to watch your movie. So that will be the end of the "out of stock" messages that plague Redbox machines when it comes to popular titles, as well as the limitation of how many discs you can shove into a kiosk.

And then you have Blockbuster....a company that has no public goodwill due to the decades of screwing over customers in their brick and mortar stores, that is presently in bankruptcy, that isn't even LISTED anymore, that probably won't emerge from bankruptcy, that hasn't even dented Gamefly's video game service or Netflix's delivery service in spite of having the benefit of stores AND shipping capabilities, that's tossed a few little kiosks here and there...and this is supposed to show up on a SWOT chart? I'm sorry, but I don't think so. This is the equivalent of overstock.com trying to challenge eBay in the auction space.
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post #164 of 248
1/19/11 at 2:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quintious View Post
1) I've been around a lot longer than you have. I'm classically a scalp player. And I've never been shy about copping to any losses I incur. It just happens that there aren't that many of them. Typically when I have more free time, I post not only "in", but in what quantity and at what price. I also post my outs. I've got a history of being right. My mood is fickle, as I follow the machines. You've got a history at trying to be a bit of a blowhard in your 1 month here.
2) Again, facts are facts. You can do a kiosk locator for the Blockbuster machines. There aren't that many of them. Go do a search in the 15 largest cities in the country. If putting up half a dozen in a city of 5 million people is "slowly eating away", then I guess slowly would be the operative word
3) You came on here prattling about how you walked into a Von's and found a machine, and that means they lost some huge contract. I pointed out Von's is owned entirely by Safeway, yet Safeway's have them, thus negating your point. Again, reality tends to bite you
4) Seeing 2 ads a month is "guerilla marketing"? Really? I'm going to see 3 ads for Taco Del Mar on my way back to work this evening.
5) Let's say they completely blanketed the airwaves with ads, though. How many people do you know who are going to drive 15 miles out of their way to get to a kiosk when there's another one from a different company 3 minutes away from their house? This is the same problem Best Buy ran into when they tried getting into the kiosk market last year. Nobody was using them, because they were inconvenient to get to.
6) You also try to be a technical trader (though I haven't been impressed with what I've seen compared to a great many others here). I'm purely a fundamentals guy. One of us has a history of being right on these fundamentals. One of us does not. I'll let you try and guess who is who.

You're also the only person alive I've seen who is trying to claim that BLOCKBUSTER, of all places, is doing absolutely *anything* to CSTR or NFLX. No other analysts, no other experts, no other traders, nothin'.

And you still haven't touched on the fact that Blockbuster has all their eggs in this one basket and is on the verge of liquidation, whereas Netflix, CSTR, etc. are not reliant on one revenue stream and have solid financials.

I should start calling you Ross v. 2.0 . Knowledge 20 feet wide and half an inch deep.
I usually don't take time to debate with delusional idiots, but I'll humor you.

1 - Seven months is "alot longer" now? What, in the life of a 10 year old? What's next stupid generalization are you going to make, that post count makes you a genius?

2 - Do you have any understanding of business efficiency? When you start a business, you start small and grow. It'd be better to put one kiosk in every major city rather than overextend your capital and try to grow too quickly. After all, BB is a bankrupt company, so obviously they need to earn revenue from current kiosks before expanding to more.

3 - I made no mention of Von's and don't even know what the hell that is. Doesn't exist here on the east coast, so please get your facts straight before you rant like a lunatic.

4 - Seeing 2 ads in a month after not seeing any ads for damn near 2 years is guerilla marketing in my book. I thought BB was dead, now I've seen ads showing that they are coming back strong.

5 - If you had any reading comprehsion, you'd realize that BB gets new releases instantly while Redbox is 28 days late, the entire basis of my argument. Driving distance doesn't matter when the closer option doesn't have the movie you want now does it? Another great point there Sherlock.

6 - Once again, no clue where you got this? I'm a fundamentals guy as well who observes technicals. I also have a history of being "right", not that it should have any bearing on my argument. Right now I'm up about 15-20% over a span of 2 months, which is plenty good for a newbie like myself.

Also, I am an analyst by occupation, not a college student like you seem to presume. But hey if you want some other analysts that are negative on CSTR, here's some reads:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2468...-pocket-change

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2414...rce=qp_article

Enjoy your "massive massive" position
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post #165 of 248
1/20/11 at 1:08am
You're as much of an analyst as I am a bikini model. And for any analyst you find that's bearish on this one, you can just as easily find 3 who are not.

But that requires logical thinking, not something prone to someone who thinks seeing 2 ads in a month during the same type of broadcast means there's a marketing blitz. Saloo, dude.
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post #166 of 248
1/20/11 at 1:41am
I personally don't use redbox much. I try to but every time I go to one I look at the list and it is a bunch of stink. Along with 2 good movies. So selection to me stinks. Digging deeper I turn to people I know. Seems a lot of people feel the same. Hard to say but cstr doesn't attract me. I used this process as part of my decision when going long nflx in the 40's.

If bbi does have the advantage of no waiting period on new releases then you can say good bye to redbox.
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post #167 of 248
1/20/11 at 1:46am
Not for nothing, but why doesn't Redbox or BlockBuster Put multiple screens on these things?

Whenever I got to the grocery store I always see a queue of at least 5 or so people at these things.


Also, couldn't they have a quick return on these ala the library? So that you don't have to stand in line in order to return the movie? I understand how that could potentially have an effect on the bottom line (as you woulnd't be as tempted for repeat purchases) but don't you have to balance customer satisfaction?

-c
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post #168 of 248
1/20/11 at 2:23am
I'll throw my 2 cents in here since everyone is throwing there's out. My wife and I started the online deal with blockbuster where you could return movies by mail to the store and check out more movies in the store for no charge. I think we paid about $25 a month for 3 at a time. We had cable at the time and both finished up college and quit watching as many movies, So we took a look at netflix. 3 DVDs out at a time was like $18-$19 a month. Then they beefed up streaming and added a ton of tv shows and documentaries. We went down to 1 DVD a month for $9 and got rid of cable because there is so much to watch. Now we use the other $10 a month we are saving to hit up either redbox or BB kiosk. Normally use redbox, but for no reason other than being more of them. Now we did seek out BB this weekend because Redbox didn't have the A-team or the Social Network... 2 newer release, I believe. Point being I think there is space for many options. The only I'm probably not ditching is Netflix.
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post #169 of 248
1/20/11 at 4:27am
BB's 28 day advantage is not that big of an advantage anymore - http://www.fastcompany.com/1710430/a...-to-same-delay

Personally, I've used Redbox but have only paid once, and that's because of a late fee. There are so many free codes floating around that you don't even need to pay. And you can reuse those codes with a different CC. I subscribe to Netflix streaming + 1 DVD but the streaming content is so thin. So I've actually gone the route of renting movies through Zune on my Xbox for $3 (gasp). Yes, 3x as much a (normal) Redbox rental but when my kid is screaming for Toy Story 3, I'll drop the 3 bucks instead of having to pack up the kids, drive to the store, rent, and then eventually drive back out and return - that's if they even have it available. Ondemand streaming is awesome and is unstoppable.
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post #170 of 248
1/20/11 at 1:47pm
Hosen, great article, and that actually throws a wrench into the mix for sure. If BB is willing to forgo the 28 day competetive edge, then Redbox can probably withstand the onslaught.

Though interestingly enough, your article had another great link in it about BB's 20 million guerrilla marketing campaign:

http://www.fastcompany.com/1704688/b...age-advertises

Just wanted to point that out to our buddy Quin, because apparently 20 millions dollars to a bankrupt company means nothing to him. That's not a huge marketing campaign or anything...
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post #171 of 248
1/20/11 at 8:06pm
Picked up some Feb 42.50 calls for cheap, small position. Just a spec play off the recent drop and NFLX saying they are not going to do dvd's anymore. Think it will recover some before Feb OPEX.
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post #172 of 248
1/25/11 at 5:07pm
13 Week Low..... whats everyone thinking.....?
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post #173 of 248
1/25/11 at 8:53pm
Still holding on this...been watching this closely. Waiting for the Q4 earnings to come out next week. I wonder how much it will keep dropping before it rebounds..it needs some good news to keep this stock from dropping.
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post #174 of 248
1/26/11 at 12:44am
Got out of my calls yesterday for a small loss for no other reason than i'm not around to be able to watch my trades due to work so wanted to make my portfolio smaller. Seems like a big miss is priced into earnings to me so this should head up on earnings release even with a miss at this point. If it's a small miss theres alot of potential to the upside. Seems like a relatively safe gamble to hold this through earnings to me.
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post #175 of 248
1/26/11 at 7:35pm
im still watching.... just trying find the right entry, if i decide to buy in
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post #176 of 248
1/26/11 at 7:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by BLOWRY1911 View Post
im still watching.... just trying find the right entry, if i decide to buy in
wait until the break out, buy into strength.
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post #177 of 248
1/26/11 at 10:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by tlee418 View Post
wait until the break out, buy into strength.
thats the better call^^^ wont potentially make as much, but its less risky!
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post #178 of 248
1/28/11 at 4:00am
About the Lawsuit

Coinstar and certain of its Officers are charged with making a series of materially false and misleading statements related to the Company's business and operations in violation of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

In particular, the lawsuit alleges that Coinstar failed to disclose during the Class Period a series of adverse factors which were negatively impacting its business and which would cause it to report declining financial results, well below the market expectations defendants had set with shareholders, including: (1) declining sales as customers purchased fewer DVDs per purchase, and as poor inventory management and controls resulted in the Company removing material amounts of old inventory early in 4Q; (2) lower sales of more expensive “Blue-ray” DVDs and poor title selection was resulting in lower overall sales; (3) the 28-day delay movie studios imposed on Coinstar was adversely affecting the Company – well before 4Q:10; (4) competition from online video streaming providers such as Netflix was adversely impacting the Company more acutely than it led on.

On January 13, 2011, when defendants reported results for the fourth quarter and full year 2010, shareholders first learned that the Company would earn as little as $.65 per share for the quarter on revenues of only $391 million, and not the analysts consensus estimate of $.84 per share, on revenue of $427 million. These disclosures had an immediate impact on the price of Coinstar stock, which declined almost 30% in the single trading day, or almost $15.50 per share, down to $41.50 from the prior day’s close of almost $57.00 per share.
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post #179 of 248
1/28/11 at 4:09am
Its fairly valued now,the 57 was inflated due to the false reporting IMO
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post #180 of 248
1/28/11 at 5:22am
Imo, I dont think its gonna have any significant drop anymore..it will still fluctuate daily however..all the news about the earnings and lawsuits have already impacted cstr dramatically. Now lets hope for the recovery to begin soon after the actual earnings are out next week. In the meantime..take your position guys!
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