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CSTR - Coinstar Inc - Page 7

post #121 of 248
Quint, do you still have that "massive... massive" position?
post #122 of 248
NCR maybe something worth looking at if you like the space. Not a pure play though because NCR makes allot of other machines like ATMs and such.

http://www.ncr.com/index.jsp?lang=EN

By the way, ATMs are one of the most germ infested things out there in the public so make sure you wash your hands before eating after using an ATM. I'm just saying....

NCR, which owns and operates about 8,000 Blockbuster Express kiosks in the United States and Canada, announced Tuesday that it reached an agreement with two movie studios to offer new releases in the self-service rental stands.

Three studios -- 20th Century Fox, Universal and Warner Bros. -- let Blockbuster rent their new releases the same day the movies go on sale, but do not allow Netflix, redbox or other unconventional renters access to the films for 28 days.

http://www.ajc.com/business/ncrs-blo...to-768756.html

NCR, which licenses the Blockbuster name for its kiosks but otherwise has no relation to the company, is starting a test with Fox and Universal through Jan. 17 in four cities -- including Atlanta -- to offer new titles for $2.99 a night. Older movies are available for $1 a night, and after 28 days, the newer movies will be available at the same price.
post #123 of 248
heed the warning NFLX holders...
post #124 of 248
I would hate to have owned this today but would love to have shorted it.
post #125 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by HIHH View Post
Quint, do you still have that "massive... massive" position?
No, I ducked out yesterday on the upswing because I decided I wanted to go with January 2012 options instead of holding the equity. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good I guess. Though now that it's taken such a huge hit, I'm looking at it again as an actual equity.
post #126 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by mxdave View Post
I would hate to have owned this today but would love to have shorted it.
I looked at the closing price of this stock's PUT options just to torture myself. One could have turned $500 into over $20k quite easily. This one will be on my list from now on. It should be quite volitile in the upcoming sessions. With the new volume coming into the market, I can see this one going crazy one way or the other. That's before it finds it's channel of course.
post #127 of 248
Wow, that has big hurt written all over it.
Hypothetically, $4k would have got you about 400 - $50 put contracts.
ToS simulated trade at current price AH makes that a $256k profit.
There has to be a buyer tmrw morning when you sell the puts right?
post #128 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by mogarbage View Post
Wow, that has big hurt written all over it.
Hypothetically, $4k would have got you about 400 - $50 put contracts.
ToS simulated trade at current price AH makes that a $256k profit.
There has to be a buyer tmrw morning when you sell the puts right?
Epic backtest fail IMNSHO. Big money will write those puts all day every day and you'll be broke before you hit that one big score.
post #129 of 248
that's exactly what i thought. ive been in a few pharmaceuticals and before they got halted and i got my order entered, it went from a $10 premium down to under a buck once halt was lifted.

but that's the beauty of backtesting simulations, fantasy land meets lotto lol
post #130 of 248
my brother's in this. looks like he'll be down big. too bad he didnt listen to me when i told him to sell this a few days ago
post #131 of 248
i wonder where bottom is.......
i could use a profit. any one looking to hope in soon? or waiting?
post #132 of 248
Oh well, I missed the boat downstream for this one.

May be it is not too late to buy puts for next week?
post #133 of 248
25% down?
what's the news,
haven't follow CSTR for quite a few months.
post #134 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by BLOWRY1911 View Post
i wonder where bottom is.......
i could use a profit. any one looking to hope in soon? or waiting?
Pre-market I gobbled up as much as I could for 41.80-42.25. Then I had to go to work. Found time today to grab some January 2012 $50 calls @ 5.30 and 5.60. I think I have 20 of them now. I know that the calls themselves signify a significant holding, but it doesn't really feel like it - and apparently my limited knowledge of options didn't include the knowledge that it's not always easy to pick up options at a price point you like if the company isn't hugely popular like Apple. It's one of those "easier said than done" things when one goes "Ima buy some options", it seems.

Anyhow, that 25% drop in the stock price is ludicrous, in my opinion. I mean really, the company is supposedly worth 1/4 less because some DVD's they have to wait 2 weeks to put in their machines? Doesn't reconcile to me.

This reminds me an awful lot of last year when AMZN and NFLX took gigantic dives out of the blue based on "unexpected weakness", and then shot back up like a cannon when people got their fool heads back on straight (I seem to recall buying a bunch of AMZN @ $100 a share when it plummeted from $120 in one day, and then a load of NFLX when it dropped from 117 to 90 in a day - people said I was crazy back then, too. On a related note, haven't seen Ross here since I've gotten some free time and can post again).

I appreciate the sentiment of moving to streaming movies, but the reality is a very small subset of the population does it, and until companies like Comcast do away with their monthly bandwidth caps and the underlying infrastructure is improved throughout the country (not going to happen anytime soon), it will be a niche thing.

Nonetheless, I'm glad my ignorance about the difficulty of acquiring options essentially saved me from myself :P. Both 2 days ago when I released my position in the equity only to learn I couldn't buy options after hours and had to wait a day, and then again yesterday when I learned that just because I want to buy something, doesn't mean someone is willing to sell it to me.
post #135 of 248
I may long CSTR again when it hit 40.

25% drop is just too much.
post #136 of 248
Lol, lowered guidance and 25% down. This is some crazy stuff.
post #137 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonebone View Post
Also, blockbuster is coming back with the "why wait 28 days" guerrilla marketing campaign which is going to directly eat at Netflix and Redbox. Also, blockbuster is already well on the way to entering the kiosk market, providing Redbox's first competition.

I'm staying far away from this one.
^ From January 3rd... and the reason CSTR didn't meet analyst projections is because the "waiting 28 days for new releases" apparently had more of an impact than they thought. WELL NO DUH! Idiots...

But at 25% off, it does make it a bit more attractive to me. I'm still pessimistic about this stock though. Blockbuster is coming back with a vengence, and if they have kiosks with new releases on day 1 instead of day 29, you can kiss redbox goodbye.
post #138 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonebone View Post
^ From January 3rd... and the reason CSTR didn't meet analyst projections is because the "waiting 28 days for new releases" apparently had more of an impact than they thought. WELL NO DUH! Idiots...

But at 25% off, it does make it a bit more attractive to me. I'm still pessimistic about this stock though. Blockbuster is coming back with a vengence, and if they have kiosks with new releases on day 1 instead of day 29, you can kiss redbox goodbye.

It has absolutely 0 to do with Blockbuster. Seen a Blockbuster ad lately? I cant recall the last time I saw one. I've only ever seen one of their kiosks, and it wasn't in a good location - it was IN a Blockbuster Video store. I just did a search on their "find a kiosk" site, and there are a grand total of 5 in the greater Seattle area, most of which are more than 15 miles from my home, and only two of which are located in densely packed areas. They seem to have an agreement with Rite-Aid, because that's where most of them seem to be located. A fitting partnership if you ask me, since Rite-Aid is basically a dead fish to CVS and Walgreen's, as well. Meanwhile, I can list no less than 30 places I can reach in less than half an hour that have a Redbox. Blockbuster isn't even going to emerge from bankruptcy, in all probability. They're following the same trend as Movie Gallery/Hollywood Video. Then there's the issue that sometime next year, Redbox will be unveiling their new service where you can plug a thumb drive into one of their kiosks and download the movie right from the thing, then take it home and watch it.

Best article I've seen with regards to Coinstar here is over at CNN:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/14/technology/thebuzz/

Revenue up 38%. Same store sales up 12.5%. These are numbers just about any company would be envious of. They are great numbers. So tell me how Blockbuster supposedly ate their lunch. They just didn't match up to the ridiculous expectations that everybody has put on the company's growth for the quarter. The bar was set really, really high. This company fell victim to the same problem Solarwinds ran into last year: Their growth has been so torrid and so enormous for so long that it basically required absolutely perfect execution to continue on pace, and the hold on new releases created a monkey wrench. That they didn't meet an extremely high bar just means that they didn't meet an extremely high bar. The numbers are still great. I liked them at 55 because I figure the stock is going to 70. I absolutely LOVE them at 42.
post #139 of 248
just added some before close, we'll see were it goes
post #140 of 248
well that could hurt


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