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CSTR - Coinstar Inc - Page 6

post #101 of 248
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post
i think alot of those shorts have already been squeezed. the easy move is done, no point in trying to short or long the hard part. there are better plays out there.
I don't think they have been squeezed quite yet. The short interest only declined by 480k shares from Sept and that number was done on the Oct. 15th. New numbers were to come out yesterday, so we will see how they did. But to go back to why I don't think they are covered yet is because the volume hasn't been there for them to cover. Yesterdays vol was 11 mil, but not all of those were short covering, I would bet not even 1/3 was short covering. It would stand to reason that the real short covering will occur when the 52 wk high gets cracked and probably not until $60 is broken through then.
post #102 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Journeyman98 View Post
I don't think they have been squeezed quite yet. The short interest only declined by 480k shares from Sept and that number was done on the Oct. 15th. New numbers were to come out yesterday, so we will see how they did. But to go back to why I don't think they are covered yet is because the volume hasn't been there for them to cover. Yesterdays vol was 11 mil, but not all of those were short covering, I would bet not even 1/3 was short covering. It would stand to reason that the real short covering will occur when the 52 wk high gets cracked and probably not until $60 is broken through then.
oh yea there are still alot of shorts on CSTR no doubt and I agree with your premise that when the 52wk gets taken out that the rest of the herd will cover (i also believe that CSTR will retest/break its 52wk high). What i was alluding to was that its not easy to go long or short a stock which gapped and ran up 12 pts (almost a 25% increase). The risk isn't worth the reward imo.
post #103 of 248
Thread Starter 
well it did break the 52 wk high and break $60, but didn't put enough pressure on the shorts to cover. They fought back today, but it still managed a green close.

Stupid random drug test today made me miss the pop to $60. Why do they want me to pee in a cup at 9:30 am? Don't they know I have stocks to watch,
post #104 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Journeyman98 View Post
well it did break the 52 wk high and break $60, but didn't put enough pressure on the shorts to cover. They fought back today, but it still managed a green close.

Stupid random drug test today made me miss the pop to $60. Why do they want me to pee in a cup at 9:30 am? Don't they know I have stocks to watch,
i would fail.
post #105 of 248
Thread Starter 
CSTR is building up for a break out, imo. I can't post a chart, but it appears that a Bullish earnings Flag pattern or an ascending triangle is forming on the daily chart. It's closing in and a break of $62.32 (and falling) would confirm the pattern. A break of $60.10 (and rising) would show a failure.

If it breaks the top, then I predict a move to $71. A break of the lower and a move to test the open price on the gap day of $55.

Time frame that I think it will occur is 1-2 weeks and more along the lines of 1 week.
post #106 of 248
Thread Starter 
Break out to the upside.
post #107 of 248
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Journeyman98 View Post
Break out to the upside.
a little premature. It did make a new 52 wk high on that little squeeze, but has since pulled back to open price.
post #108 of 248
Thread Starter 

Good selloff with the market and has found support. Was down a little over 3% to 57.45, and has now bounced back to green. Let's see if it holds till close and if so, a very bullish candle
post #109 of 248
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Journeyman98 View Post

Good selloff with the market and has found support. Was down a little over 3% to 57.45, and has now bounced back to green. Let's see if it holds till close and if so, a very bullish candle
Today is confirming yesterday's morning star pattern. Bullish reversal.

post #110 of 248
Thread Starter 
New 52wk high today with the market taking a crap.
post #111 of 248
Thread Starter 
Price target raised to $80 by DA Davidson from $65 w/ buy rating.

up 2.87% to $65.93
post #112 of 248
I'm opening a massive...massive position with these guys. The 1st quarter is when they are finally going to be integrating Coinstar in Bellevue and Redbox in Chicago, which will increase their ability to churn out those rental boxes at a much higher rate. They've worked out partnerships with most of the major players for commission-free gift card sales on their coin counting machines, which I expect to be successful.

But most importantly (and this hasn't been released to the public yet), they've worked out a deal with Starbucks by which they will soon be rolling out machines nationwide that automatically dispense a full line of fresh ground-to-order Starbucks drinks, much like the Redboxes do DVD's. They tried this back in 2007, but couldn't get the machines to work. Apparently the kinks have been worked out. While I'm no fan of Starbucks coffee, just about every other person on the planet is, and a bunch of machines where you pump in 4 bucks and it spits out a latte just like if you had waited in line for a barista to do it is going to be huge. Not sure when they're going to announce it, but this stock is going to fly.
post #113 of 248
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quintious View Post
I'm opening a massive...massive position with these guys. The 1st quarter is when they are finally going to be integrating Coinstar in Bellevue and Redbox in Chicago, which will increase their ability to churn out those rental boxes at a much higher rate. They've worked out partnerships with most of the major players for commission-free gift card sales on their coin counting machines, which I expect to be successful.

But most importantly (and this hasn't been released to the public yet), they've worked out a deal with Starbucks by which they will soon be rolling out machines nationwide that automatically dispense a full line of fresh ground-to-order Starbucks drinks, much like the Redboxes do DVD's. They tried this back in 2007, but couldn't get the machines to work. Apparently the kinks have been worked out. While I'm no fan of Starbucks coffee, just about every other person on the planet is, and a bunch of machines where you pump in 4 bucks and it spits out a latte just like if you had waited in line for a barista to do it is going to be huge. Not sure when they're going to announce it, but this stock is going to fly.

If you are trading on knowledge that is not currently available to the public is that not insider trading?

Also, they should name the new kiosks STARBOXES, and have them look just like a starbucks coffee cup. ( I want royalties if they do that, )
post #114 of 248
Also, blockbuster is coming back with the "why wait 28 days" guerrilla marketing campaign which is going to directly eat at Netflix and Redbox. Also, blockbuster is already well on the way to entering the kiosk market, providing Redbox's first competition.

I'm staying far away from this one.
post #115 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Journeyman98 View Post
If you are trading on knowledge that is not currently available to the public is that not insider trading?

Also, they should name the new kiosks STARBOXES, and have them look just like a starbucks coffee cup. ( I want royalties if they do that, )
It's not insider trading when all you have to do is find your way into their facility in Bellevue and see one on display in their break room which all the employees are using :P.

Quote:
Also, blockbuster is coming back with the "why wait 28 days" guerrilla marketing campaign which is going to directly eat at Netflix and Redbox. Also, blockbuster is already well on the way to entering the kiosk market, providing Redbox's first competition.

I'm staying far away from this one.
Blockbuster has had its rent by mail program for a while, and it's done nothing to Netflix. Redbox already had a piece of competition - it was called "the cube". It was big and blue and did the same thing Redbox did. I haven't seen one in ages. Coinstar has leveraged its existing agreements with various corporations, as well as forged new ones with places like 7-11 into what amounts to a monopoly in the field. Not concerned about that at all. There's also the fact that Coinstar is starting 2 new ways to watch movies - they're starting a streaming thing akin to Netflix (which I don't expect to be that huge) and a second way of acquiring movies which I'm not certain I can talk about.
post #116 of 248
For the record, I opened my position with these guys yesterday on a rather fortuitous dip by which this equity was down a chunk while the rest of the market was going bonkers, then watched it rally to join up with the rest of the market as the day wore on. Just for a change of flavor, I even bought a number of April $55 calls, which are up about 13% over the last 24 hours. I'll be adding to it (on the equity side, not the options side) on opportunity dips from here on out.
post #117 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quintious View Post
For the record, I opened my position with these guys yesterday on a rather fortuitous dip by which this equity was down a chunk while the rest of the market was going bonkers, then watched it rally to join up with the rest of the market as the day wore on. Just for a change of flavor, I even bought a number of April $55 calls, which are up about 13% over the last 24 hours. I'll be adding to it (on the equity side, not the options side) on opportunity dips from here on out.
I got in today, I am a little worried about it testing the gap and droping to 45.
post #118 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by antishatter View Post
I got in today, I am a little worried about it testing the gap and droping to 45.
Sorry guys, I liked this stock too but they are revising down next quarters guidance prior to release and the stock is currently halted and will likely take a sizable hit.
post #119 of 248
FFFUUUUU I just averaged down so its not as bad. Gaining back some in AH
post #120 of 248
Revised 4Q estimates... LOL just screwed alot of ppl prior to erns.
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