That is why we are all hear for. To learn from one another. Since I operate a stock trading website, I cannot share in detail what I think will happen in 2011 because it would be a disservice to my subscribers. However, in a few words, here are my thoughts of what will happen in 2011.
2011 will be characterized as a year were not much will happen in the way of returns. That is, the stock market will spend the entire year trading between S&P 1090 and S&P 1360. You will get cycles (such as the current one), were you will see market gyrate greatly, but other than that, I am expecting the S&P to end flat to slightly up for the year. To help you spot these market cycles, I am looking for the market to establish three major waves (i.e.cycles). The first cycle will take place between late February and mid April; the second cycle will take place between early June to mid August and the third and final wave/cycle will take place between mid October to early December. In cycles #1 + #2 you will see markets correct, while in cycle #3 you will see the market appreciate. As far as the DXY, I think the DXY will be range bound between 75 - 82 for the year, although I think the DXY will finish around 81 - 82 for the year. As far as bonds, I have the 30- year yield topping out at 4.75%, the 5-year note at 2.30% and the 2-year note at 0.8%.
It won't be until late 2012 that markets will correct dramatically. What exactly will drive this correction is still murky. Persistently high oil prices, a currency war or crisis, or rising yields are some of the factors that could potential serve as the catalyst to that correction.
I hope this helped somewhat.
Changing gars, Paul Farrel of MarketWatch expects markets to crash. I of course do not share thsi view. Instead (as I described above), I expect markets to correct by about 20% form their highs by the end of 2012. I am not calling for a crash, unless we have oil above $150 for a prolongued period of time or have a full blown currency crisis.
Excerpt taken from the article -
We want to believe they’re telling us the truth. Silly, huh? Both trapped in this eternal “dance of death” controlled by programs hidden deep in our brains, telling us what to do, telling us to ignore facts to the contrary — till it’s too late, till a new crisis crushes all of us. Phsychology offers us a powerful lesson: Our collective brain is destined to trigger a crash before Christmas 2011. Why? We’re gullible, keep searching for a truth-teller in a world of liars. And they’re so clever, we let them manipulate us into acting against our best interests.
In fact, behavioral science tells us that bankers and politicians are lying to us 93% of the time. It’s 13 times more likely Wall Street is telling you a lie than the truth. That’s why they win. Why we lose. Because our brains are preprogrammed to cooperate in their con game. Yes, we believe most of their lies.
One of America’s leading behavioral finance gurus, University of Chicago Prof. Richard Thaler, explains: “Think of the human brain as a personal computer with a very slow processor and a memory system that is small and unreliable.” Thaler even admits: “The PC I carry between my ears has more disk failures than I care to think about.” Easy to manipulate.
Link to the article - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-crash-2011-it-will-hit-by-christmas-2011-02-22
Originally Posted by tlee418
bigbull, what is your opinion on the market in 2011?
I learn a lot from your post, but I would love you to sum up a bit.