HotStockMarket › Forums › HSM Stock Forum › Stock Forums for NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX › SPG - Simon Property Group
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

SPG - Simon Property Group

post #1 of 28
12/18/08 at 5:31am
Thread Starter 
Simon Property Group, Inc. (Simon) is a real estate company in United States. Simon operates from five retail real estate platforms: regional malls, Premium Outlet Centers, The Mills, community/lifestyle centers and international properties. As of July 31, 2008, the Company owned or had an interest in 383 properties comprising 261 million square feet of gross leasable area in North America, Europe and Asia.

chart.ashx?t=spg&ta=1&p=d&s=l

Recent insider transactions: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=SPG
Reply
Reply

Featured Stories on HotStockMarket

Mark's Weekly Trading Log
Stonerangers forum
Educational videos for new investors!
post #2 of 28
12/18/08 at 5:48am
Thread Starter 
Look at insider transactions. Big dumping (oops.. I meant profit taking from the bagholders). Debt/equity > 5, P/E 35. Looks like it's being propped up since many real estate ETFs like URE, IYR, RWR, RWX are holding a big portion of SPG. When Bennie desperately announced the 0.75% rate cut to re-bubble it, suddenly the dividend was looking good, almost too good to be true. May retrace close to the neckline (see monthly). HELOC it to the moon
Reply
Reply
post #3 of 28
12/22/08 at 8:03am
Thread Starter 
Now it's commercial real estate bailout time

Developers Ask U.S. for Bailout as Massive Debt Looms
Dec 22, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1229...googlenews_wsj

Quote:
With a record amount of commercial real-estate debt coming due, some of the country's biggest property developers have become the latest to go hat-in-hand to the government for assistance.

They're warning policymakers that thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years -- with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off.

Unlike home loans, which borrowers repay after a set period of time, commercial mortgages usually are underwritten for five, seven or 10 years with big payments due at the end. At that point, they typically need to be refinanced. A borrower's inability to refinance could force it to give up the property to the lender.
....
....
While commercial real-estate developers restrained themselves during the boom years when it came to speculative development, property investors bid up the prices of office buildings, malls and other projects to record levels assuming rents and occupancies would keep rising. With cash flows now falling, a growing number of developers are having a tough time repaying their debt. In cases where owners need to sell buildings to satisfy loans, the current environment makes that difficult. A revitalized lending climate is necessary, they say, to keep them afloat.

What's not clear is how soon the crunch will come. The Real Estate Roundtable, a major industry trade group, predicts that more than $400 billion of commercial mortgages will come due through the end of 2009. Foresight Analytics estimates that $160 billion of commercial mortgages will mature next year.


Jeff DeBoer, president and chief executive officer of the Roundtable, says the group came up with its estimate by looking at the $3.4 trillion of commercial real-estate loans outstanding. It's not unusual for roughly 10% of the industry's debt to roll over every year, he says, referring to refinancings.

This year, some $141 billion worth of commercial real-estate debt owed by property owners and developers to lenders came due, according to Foresight Analytics. Most of that was refinanced or extended by existing lenders. The lion's share of those loans was made between five and 10 years ago. Despite the recent decline in property values, the underlying buildings were still worth well more than their mortgages and were generating sufficient cash to pay debt service.

But the delinquency rate on payments to mortgage lenders is rising, particularly for properties that were financed at the top of the market. Delinquencies on commercial mortgages jumped to 0.96% in November, up from 0.62% in September.

Some analysts predict the delinquency rate will leap to 2% by the end of next year. During the real-estate collapse of the early 1990s, the worst-performing commercial mortgages -- those that were made in 1986 -- sustained losses of about 10%.
Reply
Reply
post #4 of 28
12/22/08 at 8:09am
Thread Starter 
From Real Estate Roundtable weekly -

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CREDIT CRISIS

Must read - http://www.kintera.org/htmlcontent.asp?cid=86020

Letter to Henry Paulson:

http://www.rer.org/atf/cf/%7B42ee898...%20PAULSON.PDF

Quote:
We know and understand the commercial real estate market best and therefore we can shed
some light on the extent of the problem in our sector. In the midst of historically moderate vacancy
rates, low loan delinquency rates and an abundance of well-performing, cash-flowing properties,
credit available to commercial real estate is now in exceedingly short supply. For many borrowers,
it simply is not available. This is a problem that potentially will affect $6 trillion of commercial real
estate, which is financed in part through over $3 trillion of debt. Jobs, small businesses, retirement
savings, and local government tax revenues are all at stake.

Together, banks and the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market represent
75% of all outstanding commercial real estate loans. Banks report an historic level of tightening of
credit standards. The banking system itself appears to be contracting as it books significant losses,
consolidates in the midst of turmoil, and raises capital levels to the full extent expected by
shareholders, boards of directors and regulators. The CMBS market has ceased to function with
respect to new loans and existing loans trade at highly excessive spreads, telegraphing systemic
dysfunction.
Yes, I put this in SPG because SPG is the leader. Too lazy to create a thread fro VNO, BXP, and all the other junks. Insiders selling can be used as a hint
Reply
Reply
post #5 of 28
2/15/09 at 11:29pm
Big, big leg down coming soon. Maybe before the end of the month or beginning of March...but it's coming. That big red candle from Friday might be the start of it. Shorting this puppy all the way down
Reply
Reply
post #6 of 28
2/16/09 at 12:02am
Hello,

i want to buy this company as they look strong and will survive the mess, why are they dropping?
Reply
Reply
post #7 of 28
2/16/09 at 12:36am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stock Lover View Post
Hello,

i want to buy this company as they look strong and will survive the mess, why are they dropping?
more private businesses and retail stores close down. No lease, no income for Simon. I agree to short, but when/what can we expect the bottom to be?
Reply
Reply
post #8 of 28
2/16/09 at 1:28am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stock Lover View Post
Hello,

i want to buy this company as they look strong and will survive the mess, why are they dropping?
What makes this look strong? I'm not bashing you, but I'm just curious what you see in this ticker with all of the current events going on around it. I'd have to agree with another leg down coming very soon. The commercial real estate mess hasn't BEGUN to hit yet.
Reply
Reply
post #9 of 28
2/16/09 at 2:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoast_trader View Post
Big, big leg down coming soon. Maybe before the end of the month or beginning of March...but it's coming. That big red candle from Friday might be the start of it. Shorting this puppy all the way down
Thank you for the heads up looks like my favorite short play right now.
Reply
Reply
post #10 of 28
2/16/09 at 6:18pm
Thread Starter 
This graph is also important. http://www.markit.com/information/pr...ry_graphs.html

You may want to google CMBX.

Next stop SPG $37, may bounce to $41-43 first (not guaranteed), but next stop $26 is the first target. Look at SPG's "brother" - GGP chart.

IYR next target is $21. The bulls may try to double bottom it at $24. Careful playing SRS, the leveraged 2x compounding could crush you on a reversal. Better short IYR directly than play SRS.

Most of the big REIT insiders have been selling since last year. The remaining will sell again on any bounce.
Reply
Reply
post #11 of 28
2/16/09 at 6:27pm
Good read
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...&type=business
Reply
Reply
post #12 of 28
2/17/09 at 12:52am
I think that article relates to General Growth Properties and their problems...

This article focused on Simon
Simon Property Group Q4 FFO rises, tops consensus; declares dividend

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/TopSt...=Top%20Stories
Reply
Reply
post #13 of 28
2/17/09 at 3:47am
Personally I wouldn't be looking to go long in the REITs just yet...


I want to see what happpens with GGP, if 200 malls suddenly hit the market then these retail REITs are in big trouble...
Reply
Reply
post #14 of 28
2/17/09 at 4:23am
I understand SPG is a leader in industry. However several charts have led me to believe this is a good short candidate. The first is the market in general, which looks like a bear flag with RSI confirming right into it's downtrend. Also the VIX shows a bull flag with a mini bull flag pressed against resistance which shows breakout may be imminent.



Second, would be the chart of SPG compared to industry leader QQQQ. I also compared SPG to other short candidates and it (SPG) appears to be the weakest of the bunch. What really sold me is the ADX is pointed up in these charts with plenty of room to run.

Compare SPG to the short of your choice and please show me a reason why I should not be short this stock!



Reply
Reply
post #15 of 28
2/17/09 at 4:32am
Really nice charts! Good observation on those flags. Perfect contender for a short.
Reply
Reply
post #16 of 28
2/17/09 at 4:51am
O.k. this is just a rumor that I heard, but rumor has it that General Growth Properties (GGP) will possibly be selling some malls to Simon Properties Group (SPG). Possibly as soon as this week.
Reply
Reply
post #17 of 28
2/17/09 at 5:05am
Thread Starter 
It is a really good short candidate, as I previously said on page 1, target is $25. By the way, they're paying the dividend with stock... and that translates to .....

Not only the technical is pointing to the downside, but also insiders have been selling big time. But as always, tight stop
Reply
Reply
post #18 of 28
2/17/09 at 7:25am
Thread Starter 
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=SPG
Reply
Reply
post #19 of 28
2/25/09 at 2:52am
spg has a pretty reliable trend in place, to trade (short) when it hits the line (above)

besides of course the numerous speeches and tons of economic data.

SPG is at a very key t/a point here. reversal on friday was right ontop of a trend channell support line.

However now it at basically rsi resistance.

point: IF it breaks the hourly rsi resistance, i "think" it's going back to to 42-43 (i think i put 41 on the 60 min chart, but it might even touch the trendline at 43 actually)..."might"....

IF it stalls here...i think it might be toast. But we should produce the move either way.


Reply
Reply
post #20 of 28
3/6/09 at 7:49pm
Everyone still short? I'm hearing that Simon might have to close down a Mall here on the NorthShore in MA.

Their survival is in jeopardy in this environment
Reply
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home

Featured Stories on HotStockMarket

Mark's Weekly Trading Log
Stonerangers forum
Educational videos for new investors!
HotStockMarket › Forums › HSM Stock Forum › Stock Forums for NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX › SPG - Simon Property Group