GNK - Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. - Page 5

BDI is down today and more importantly the Cape index dropped substantially to $34,795. Doesn't look like a good day for the big shipping stocks today.

excel is still green in p/m

Yes, Excel only has 5 Capesize ships (out of 47 total fleet).

ya this shit needs to just go ahead and rebound

My portfolio is dieing everyday for like 10 days straight

BDI down again today, Cape rate is down to $32K per day. I have to keep reminding myself that this stock will be a winner when the economy recovers, the shippers can't make any money at these rates.

And I'm not repeating my horrible habit of trying to catch a falling knife. I'll wait until a bottom forms before adding to my position. My $21.10 buy was a great buy back in December but I'll wait to average down.

I didn't think GNK would reach 19.00 so quickly but it's here and I have no clue where this thing is going.

I haven't bought a share yet as I have been traveling on business and haven't had access to the internet during the day. From the 1 year chart, I thought the mid 19 area would be support, but now I don't have a clue to where this will go. The market pressure has really affected GNK, a lot more than I thought it would, so I'm a bit hesistant to enter before seeing some positive signs from GNK or the market.

With that said, I still think GNK is a good midterm hold at this level and wouldn't hesitate to buy in this area for a 6 month hold. Another bulker to look at in the $12 range is DSX. These two shippers aren't the EXMs or DRYS of the bulker industry and will ride out a downterm. Probably EXM and DRYS will too, but it's more of a certianty with GNK and DSX.

BDI seems to be due for more decline, but followers of the BDI can attest to the volatility of the index so that's not a certian either.

If this isn't the bottom, I think the bottom will be around 18.30 - 18.50 range. BUT right now, I do not see any reason for GNK to change its trend so the play may be to continue to sit on the sidelines.

WORD OF CAUTION: Playing the dry bulkers in a declining market is a huge risk. Feast or famine with the bulkers.

Absolutely. Based on comparing the charts against the index, I'd be looking for an upturn in the BDI before looking for an entry point.

GNK broke a major trendline from July which is what signaled many shorters and the rapid positive feedback loop of people being stopped out below the trendline and shorters seeing the signal to go short at the same time. The same thing occurs when a stock breaks out; shorters get stopped out and buyers are signaled to buy on the breakout which causes a positive feedback loop.

I ALMOST bought calls on the trendline support last week but I went with XOM instead. I'm down regardless, but GNK is down much more relative to XOM. That trendline was a major support and I did not feel it would have broke like it did.

You are right, Chris. Very surprised it broke like it did. Like a knife through hot butter. Is there something more to the GNK downtrend than what is currently known since it has been hit harder than the other dry bulkers? It's probably just downward pressure from the market, but you never know. GNK doesn't have the history of keeping shareholders in the dark so I think it's just market pressure at this point.

I think the real test is around the 18.70 area (give or take 20 cents or so), which happens to be the low of Sept '09, if I remember correctly. If that's broken relatively easily, then who the heck knows where the bottom will be. Either way, I will be prepared for wherever GNK or the market goes.

I'm not comfortable going long at this point. I also wouldn't open a short position at this level either. BUT I'd be much more inclined to go long as I think the majority of the move downward has occurred, but there could always be a bigger move down in the next few weeks. Maybe a long position with some put protection, but puts are probably pretty expensive right now so that's not a good play either.

OT: We'll see... There's a lot of fish in the sea at this point and no need to rush into any position. I'm just lucky enough to be all cash at this point and hope to capitalize on the oppurtunity.

BDI is down again. Cape rate is down to $30,100 per day. How low can they go?

No idea, But Im down 10,000$

Wow, GNK took off straight up in the last 15 minutes. I don't know what's up yet.

ya i know. could that been the end of red? back to 26-30?

I think I'd be looking for the BDI number first thing in the morning before buying in. Although it would have been nice to get in under $19 this morning.

BDI numbers are up already. Still dropping, but the rate of decline is slowing. Scary how close the Cape rate is to the Panamax and Supramax rates.

Oh yeah


Looking like we going back to the infamous highs. Wish I could get in this price. Im all wrapped up already though.

Come on $19.

Give me another chance. I won't be skeered this time.

Well, I went ahead and bought a little early @ 19.30, but still have some $$$ to average down if needed. Looking at the charts, the range looks to be 18s to 25 - 28 for the last 9 months (Feb/Mar being the exception). I think we are nearing the max. downside BASED ON THE CHARTS. I have loose stops and know GNK is the type of bulker you want your money in for a nice, profitable swing trade. My trade's success depends on an improving BDI and the overall market.

I have little long term concerns with buying GNK at this level, but will add more in the mid 17s if the market really gets nasty. Short term may be more downside so be careful and set your stops according to your strategy.

I got stopped out with DRYS earlier, instead of averaging down as I suggesting in the DRYS thread, and the beauty of GNK, as compared to DRYS, is that you don't have to watch GNK 24/7 as you do with DRYS.

Discloser: 2250 @ 19.30.

With about 2K more shares bought @ 17.5, as is my next buy (A BIG IF), my average will be around 18.50.

EDIT: Trading well below the 200MA of about 22.00, outside of the BB of 50/2 too.

BDI turned positive today, and the Cape index is back over $30K, so hopefully this is the beginning of another uptrend.

Looking forward to having the capital for those kinds of buys, Travis. I'll get there one day, as soon as I can break $10K. Still trying to make something out of nothing right now.

I'd like to see the capes around 40K.

The reason I post my buy amounts is that it allows me to use this site as a place to document my trades and allows me to review my mindset when making the decision. I've tried to study my rational without a buy a size and it doesn't give me a complete review. Sure, I could keep a notebook or a spreadsheet, but HSM affords me the oppurtunity to chat with others about my picks and theirs. It's not to brag because there's a lot of people here would could make me look even more small fry than what I really am.

You'll get there, just stay away from MPEL.