Chart of 1929 - 1933 stock market crash - Page 2

You're right. Meet ya at the bread line bro, I haven't eaten in like 3 weeks.

China is not a 1st world country. Noone in the US, UK, Australia or Japan would stampede over a 'mere' 7% growth rate. OMG, the horror.

very interesting. After reading a little bit about the market crash of 1929, i find that there are some disturbing similarities. I initially thought it would be a totally different circumstance given it happened close to 80 years ago.

I do wonder though, when was options trading implemented

outsourcing is the worst thing.. ok it might benefit one or two countries now, but wait in 50 yrs when they are developed and it goes somewhere else.

You going to say the same thing then? Its smart move for the fat cats, if you have to pay more to be loyal and do business here you should, or be taxed heavily for importing goods.

Thats the problem.. everyone wants to make money off american but nit pay their fair end in ensuring the country benefits also.
I dont know about the lazy american outlook in general..but i stay late and work 120 - 140 hrs per 2 weeks.

Its the people who expect something which are the problem, and the companies that try and trim the fat, when its needed.

Also were not oppressed (yet) nor have the poverty or social issues other developing countries have, overall we have earned the rights we have here in terms of protection of your work rights and pay.. if a company moves off shore, they should be required to keep a % amount within the uitied states, or they can fill for business and such somewhere else and pay tarrifs.
just my thoughts...

otherwise this will be a reality sooner or later.

I'm sorry but you're living in the past. Do you think these companies really care of the US? Outsourcing is the worst thing for companies to do to America, but one of the best things for the company as long as the employees they employ are fluent in English (to ensure no loss of business). I don't see how you say it's the worst thing without even indicating who it is worse for. I'm not sure how old you are, but if/when you get into a business environment where you are a decision maker, you'll realize that one of the best things for you to do is outsource off-shore...if the current laws for such still apply.

Markets will rise due to hyper-inflation. Just like home values are about to explode also for the same reason. It may take 6 months to a year to kick in but thats my opinion.

Is there any way to make any sort of guess on how much 7 Trillion will cause in inflation over the next 5 years?

Maybe if we could figure out how much total money the U.S. had in 1928 versus 1933 and compare that to the inflation over that 5 year period?? Would end up being a wild guess I'm sure..

I'm betting it's going to get way worse than 90% of Americans can imagine. 7 Trillion is more money than most think thats for sure.

We need a long term wager website. I'd like to bet on a gallon of milk being over $20 within 3 years LOL..

Credit, Consumerism, etc

Extrinsic value is keeping the American economy alive.

I find this all amusing, because in the last few YEARS, anyone who reads a newspaper in a high growth city during the housing bubble should've read a few stories about how the conditions were exactly like the land boom of 1929 Florida, and what was to happen. The numbers lined up exactly the same.
Although I don't remember what the numbers were, but it appears to have been true.

I spend all my nights wondering what I should do with my employee stock purchasing plan. I figure I can have:
A) Even as the market goes down, maybe in 4-10 years we'll go up. buying at an 80% discount is a nice sale, and for a long term hold, maybe I can get a house out of this?
B) It will become worthless. We're going to be nationalized, or our pathetic policy will crash the dollar, and my job is overseas. That' two scenarios actually
C) They're going to force fannie/freddie like regulations on us, which will create us to go bust like them, or the auto industry maybe too. Because we weren't allowed to run our own business, since some political hack whose never had a real job thinks he/she can do better!

What a dilemma. It sucks that I'm a gambler, and 15-20 bucks for a stock that was 80 a year or two ago for a product that people will always need(unless we're nationalized) seems like a nice gamble. Even if my jobgoes to India(again!), hopefully those shares will have some value in a bunch of years!

The world is a Global Market. If one corporation outsources, immediately it's competitors must ensue or fall directly to the wayside and out of the competition. Don't blame this on corporations for doing what they have to do to remain competitive, blame it on America for making it too easy and too beneficial for those corporations to outsource. You talk about corporate fatcats, but what about the fatcats in DC? If I was a CEO, I'm going to exercise to the fullest extent all of my power, within the law, to keep my doors open and to remain in business.

You can use a multiplier effect formula assuming all of the money is reinvested and not hoarded. Currently, it seems that the money the banks have received is not being lent and thus we're not seeing any kind of ripple effect.

I agree that house prices will rise - so I'm holding both of mine (currently underwater). Hyperinflation means it will cost more dollars to buy resources to build new houses, even though the commodity prices have fallen. Hyperinflation is good for houses.

But why is hyperinflation going to make markets rise? More dollars, each worth less money, means a company has to use more dollars to pay people an equivalent salary, pay more for resources, and lowers the profit margin.

While this makes a house more expensive, it also makes goods sold by companies more expensive, but doesn't mean their profit margin is going to rise at all - hence why would the stock market rise?

I wanted to bump this thread and see if one of you chart gurus could create an overlay of the current dow and the dow of 1929-1933? Looks like it's still holding as fairly similar. I'm wondering when the bottom is going to fall out from under this current bear rally.

Is there some way to do an overlay? And include the chart movements from the last month?

The original comparison you did was great, and in fact a Google search led me to this thread which is how I found this forum, but it is now a month old.

I posted this somewhere earlier, but this is the place for it:

1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927


2. "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928


3. "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928


4. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929


5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929


6. "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929


7. "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929


8. "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929


9. "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929


10. "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

11. "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930


12. "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930


13. "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930


14. "... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930


15. "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930


16. "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930


17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930


18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930


19. "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931


20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

this is a good collection of charts of the numerous bear markets since 1950. there is a chart showing of all of them in one timeframe and then an individual chart for each seperate occasion. the patterns are very interesting, i think you guys will like them

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-b...process-2009-4