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Chart of 1929 - 1933 stock market crash - Page 10

post #181 of 203
this looks like the 294 H&S to me as far as the dow goes. i hope not though.
post #182 of 203
The circumstances and technology may have been different, but the root of the issue is still the same. There was a bubble, and bubbles eventually pop. This bubble was larger and so far we've only seen round 1. I'd love to be wrong here, I like making money in bull markets as much as anyone else, but we're just recently finishing up the largest financial bubble the world has ever seen. Bubbles simply aren't sustainable.
post #183 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by simonyadig View Post
The circumstances and technology may have been different, but the root of the issue is still the same. There was a bubble, and bubbles eventually pop. This bubble was larger and so far we've only seen round 1. I'd love to be wrong here, I like making money in bull markets as much as anyone else, but we're just recently finishing up the largest financial bubble the world has ever seen. Bubbles simply aren't sustainable.
1929 and now is different... in 1929 it was a lot simpler..
post #184 of 203
I agree with Simon in principle, but I also feel that today's economy is controlled and manipulated to the point where the bubbles can be patched and reinflated for many years, even decades. My father predicted the 2008 crash way back in the 1970s, after the oil crisis in 1971. I remember him telling me many times that a big economic crash was inevitable and the current market was unsustainable. But who wants to spend another 30 years waiting to be right?
post #185 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by simonyadig View Post
The circumstances and technology may have been different, but the root of the issue is still the same. There was a bubble, and bubbles eventually pop. This bubble was larger and so far we've only seen round 1. I'd love to be wrong here, I like making money in bull markets as much as anyone else, but we're just recently finishing up the largest financial bubble the world has ever seen. Bubbles simply aren't sustainable.
No only are they not sustainable, they only become a bubble once you get a good amount of people buying into the bubble. We could debate as long as we want, the simple fact is there are troubled waters ahead. All that buy on the dips, has been just as good as the 3 card shuffler trick where he lets you win a few, get confident & then you lose the big bet.

Good luck to all in the markets.
post #186 of 203
I think we all need to look at the real problem out there.... emerald ash borrers.
But no really, China. China is a communist bubble and the rest of the world is taking into it. China is faking a huge economy by pumping lots of $$$ into themselves and then changing the exchange rate to make it look even better when americans buy into it. My friend just got back from china last weekend and she bought a $600 pageant dress for $80 custom tailored. The same style dress she was looking at in a store locally same fabric everything. Also made in china.
post #187 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by skwerl View Post
My father predicted the 2008 crash way back in the 1970s, after the oil crisis in 1971. I remember him telling me many times that a big economic crash was inevitable and the current market was unsustainable. But who wants to spend another 30 years waiting to be right?
Thats like saying "theres going to be another huge tsunami some time in the future"

it took his "prediction" 30+ years to come true, its just inevitable. there were many big downturns between 1970 and 2008 as well, why not count those.
(no disrespect to your father)
post #188 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by vdubman View Post
I think we all need to look at the real problem out there.... emerald ash borrers.
But no really, China. China is a communist bubble and the rest of the world is taking into it. China is faking a huge economy by pumping lots of $$$ into themselves and then changing the exchange rate to make it look even better when americans buy into it. My friend just got back from china last weekend and she bought a $600 pageant dress for $80 custom tailored. The same style dress she was looking at in a store locally same fabric everything. Also made in china.
The US is pumping a lot more money to its economy to make it looks better.
I am getting confused, who is the communist?
post #189 of 203
Exactly my point, Nick. I wasted many years waiting for the inevitable crash instead of making hay while the sun was shining.
post #190 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by skwerl View Post
Exactly my point, Nick. I wasted many years waiting for the inevitable crash instead of making hay while the sun was shining.
very true.
post #191 of 203

bump....had to do it for those who have never seen this thread....enjoy

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Good charts and commentary gentlemen!

Lets focus for a second on the chart patterns, ignoring the time scale, here are some charts showing how similar the current market has been to the 1929 crash.

I am not advocating that we crash as hard as we did in 1929, but if we are now consolidating, and if that consolidation fails to the downside, then its spooky!!!





 

post #192 of 203
Thread Starter 

Wow I forgot about this thread, thanks for bumping!

post #193 of 203

so simple, yet so useful.  is it safe to say no longer in consolidation stage?

post #194 of 203

When the economy is up, we use financial reports to invest. When the economy is down, we use charts to speculate.

post #195 of 203
Thread Starter 

Here is a good updated chart from dshort.com

 

1929crash.gif

post #196 of 203

I've been thinking about this thread lately.

 

I still expect another down-leg of the market; the last cyclical bear market in a secular bear market. I need to put some stops in to protect my positions.

 

After the third and last cyclical bear market in the secular bear market, it will be a secular bull market. Keep your powder dry.

 

And, thanks StockJock-e, for keeping this thread/theme going.

 

-Paul

post #197 of 203

Dow Jones Industrial chart from 1900 to present.

 

djia1900s.png

 

Kinda looks like the mother of all Head and Shoulders formation developing for the past 10 or so years. Just some food for thought.

post #198 of 203

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beaumont View Post

 

Kinda looks like the mother of all Head and Shoulders formation developing for the past 10 or so years. Just some food for thought.


street cred coming you way. thumbup.gif

 

yep, i think we're all watching that same h&s as you are. i know that i have talked about this on other threads here about a gazillion times. this ties in perfectly with my theory of 2012 being the beginning of the crash, followed by a painful next 3-5 years which i have a target of sub 4k (which would take the dow all the way back to the mean before the crazy run up started).

 

here is a better close up shot of that very head & shoulders using tos. this looks much cleaner.

 

72vyw7.png

 

i even made a projected chart of what this would look like in the next 3-5 years... lemme see if i can dig that up, i believe i had posted it over on the main indexes thread...

 

but, anyway, ya i think painful times ahead... will be interesting to see what happens. good job pointing that out.

post #199 of 203

With the high of May 2011, we made approx 77% retracement of the 07 high's.....in 1930, we made a 60% retracement, then the real crash happened.

 

Hopefully, this doesn't happen again.

 

Of course, back then it was the banks that lead us into that mess.....sound familiar?

 

1929.jpg

post #200 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post

bump....had to do it for those who have never seen this thread....enjoy

 



 


That's a crazy chart. I wonder if we are out of consolidation..... I'm thinking we will have another "Doink!" moment soon.

 

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