Chart of 1929 - 1933 stock market crash - Page 10

this looks like the 294 H&S to me as far as the dow goes. i hope not though.

The circumstances and technology may have been different, but the root of the issue is still the same. There was a bubble, and bubbles eventually pop. This bubble was larger and so far we've only seen round 1. I'd love to be wrong here, I like making money in bull markets as much as anyone else, but we're just recently finishing up the largest financial bubble the world has ever seen. Bubbles simply aren't sustainable.

1929 and now is different... in 1929 it was a lot simpler..

I agree with Simon in principle, but I also feel that today's economy is controlled and manipulated to the point where the bubbles can be patched and reinflated for many years, even decades. My father predicted the 2008 crash way back in the 1970s, after the oil crisis in 1971. I remember him telling me many times that a big economic crash was inevitable and the current market was unsustainable. But who wants to spend another 30 years waiting to be right?

No only are they not sustainable, they only become a bubble once you get a good amount of people buying into the bubble. We could debate as long as we want, the simple fact is there are troubled waters ahead. All that buy on the dips, has been just as good as the 3 card shuffler trick where he lets you win a few, get confident & then you lose the big bet.

Good luck to all in the markets.

I think we all need to look at the real problem out there.... emerald ash borrers.
But no really, China. China is a communist bubble and the rest of the world is taking into it. China is faking a huge economy by pumping lots of $$$ into themselves and then changing the exchange rate to make it look even better when americans buy into it. My friend just got back from china last weekend and she bought a $600 pageant dress for $80 custom tailored. The same style dress she was looking at in a store locally same fabric everything. Also made in china.

Thats like saying "theres going to be another huge tsunami some time in the future"

it took his "prediction" 30+ years to come true, its just inevitable. there were many big downturns between 1970 and 2008 as well, why not count those.
(no disrespect to your father)

The US is pumping a lot more money to its economy to make it looks better.
I am getting confused, who is the communist?

Exactly my point, Nick. I wasted many years waiting for the inevitable crash instead of making hay while the sun was shining.

very true.

bump....had to do it for those who have never seen this thread....enjoy

 

 

so simple, yet so useful.  is it safe to say no longer in consolidation stage?

When the economy is up, we use financial reports to invest. When the economy is down, we use charts to speculate.

I've been thinking about this thread lately.

 

I still expect another down-leg of the market; the last cyclical bear market in a secular bear market. I need to put some stops in to protect my positions.

 

After the third and last cyclical bear market in the secular bear market, it will be a secular bull market. Keep your powder dry.

 

And, thanks StockJock-e, for keeping this thread/theme going.

 

-Paul

Dow Jones Industrial chart from 1900 to present.

 

 

Kinda looks like the mother of all Head and Shoulders formation developing for the past 10 or so years. Just some food for thought.

 

street cred coming you way. 

 

yep, i think we're all watching that same h&s as you are. i know that i have talked about this on other threads here about a gazillion times. this ties in perfectly with my theory of 2012 being the beginning of the crash, followed by a painful next 3-5 years which i have a target of sub 4k (which would take the dow all the way back to the mean before the crazy run up started).

 

here is a better close up shot of that very head & shoulders using tos. this looks much cleaner.

 

 

i even made a projected chart of what this would look like in the next 3-5 years... lemme see if i can dig that up, i believe i had posted it over on the main indexes thread...

 

but, anyway, ya i think painful times ahead... will be interesting to see what happens. good job pointing that out.

With the high of May 2011, we made approx 77% retracement of the 07 high's.....in 1930, we made a 60% retracement, then the real crash happened.

 

Hopefully, this doesn't happen again.

 

Of course, back then it was the banks that lead us into that mess.....sound familiar?

 

That's a crazy chart. I wonder if we are out of consolidation..... I'm thinking we will have another "Doink!" moment soon.