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Chart of 1929 - 1933 stock market crash - Page 8

post #141 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by i_am_so_siri View Post
it died down because a bunch of retail investorsw that are get rich quick mentality got into gold. when gold didnt fly they stopped going nuts on gold. they wanted instant big profits. i sold all my gold at 1000. i knew the retailers were getting too excited. also if inflation hits hard enough to get gold to 2000 per oz i have to say its pretty pathetic if the best return you can find is 100% on a move like that. we get enough inflation for 2000 gold and there will be other plays that will post much better than 100%.
Yeah, GDX or mining companies. A lot of mining companies were three, four, baggers over the last year. More from nadir to apex.

I also fail to see the fanatic worship of physical gold that I keep hearing about.
post #142 of 203
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...-History-.aspx

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...is-Coming.aspx

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...proaching.aspx

I highly recommend watching all three videos. The second one in particular addresses the inflation vs deflation argument.
post #143 of 203
Following up on 'simonyadig' and his thoughtful answer about why we aren't seeing inflation despite all the money that seems to be getting poured into the economy.

We experienced a severe deflationary event when all the banks and other investors lost so much money on bad mortgage backed securities. That money wasn't just lost, that money disappeared, and that was the hugely deflationary event. Paulson, Bernanke, and Geithner had to replace that lost money with more money for more reasons than just keeping the financial system afloat, they had to stop the deflation that was already going on.

So they kept the financial system alive, but, as simonyadig pointed out, the banks aren't lending the way they used to. I know this first hand because I just refinance my house, and the documentation standards went way, way up from the last time I got a mortgage. So, the banks are getting the money, but that money isn't flowing out to consumers in a way that will cause inflation. It seems like the only beneficiaries of this money are hedge funds and investment banks, which borrow the money at low rates, and use the money to play the markets, which has propped up prices in stocks and commodities.

We would be seeing even more deflation except the government, in a paradoxical way, has lowered its lending standards to banks; the government is allowing banks to carry bad assets on their books without forcing the usual reserve requirements. Banks, in turn, are holding onto defaulted mortgage properties much longer. We should have been seeing a flood of REO properties hitting the market. Instead, there's a steady but controllable supply of short-sale properties hitting the market.

Wages and employment are still under severe pressure. More and more employers are no longer providing health insurance. Vehicle prices are also under pressure. And property taxes are falling in many areas.

We're seeing deflation, but because gasoline and food prices haven't fallen, people don't yet recognize it.
post #144 of 203
Actually, property taxes in Florida have risen, as well as insurance, electricity, water, sewage, food, etc.
We've probably got one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, and prices of every thing just keep going up. It's not sustainable. One of the reasons is that for the 1st time in a long time, people are moving OUT of Florida insted of in.
post #145 of 203
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockvoyeur View Post
We experienced a severe deflationary event when all the banks and other investors lost so much money on bad mortgage backed securities. That money wasn't just lost, that money disappeared, and that was the hugely deflationary event. Paulson, Bernanke, and Geithner had to replace that lost money with more money for more reasons than just keeping the financial system afloat, they had to stop the deflation that was already going on.
You just managed to articulate something very complicated into a very simple sentence!
post #146 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
You just managed to articulate something very complicated into a very simple sentence!
are you currently trading this market?.
post #147 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by trendtrader89 View Post
are you currently trading this market?.
Just traded out of my long positions today. Good luck to all in the market!
post #148 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by qu4rk View Post
Just traded out of my long positions today. Good luck to all in the market!
I will be doing the same this and next month!
post #149 of 203
possible we could be consolidating around this area?
post #150 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by trendtrader89 View Post
possible we could be consolidating around this area?
That's definitely a possibility.
post #151 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockvoyeur View Post
Following up on 'simonyadig' and his thoughtful answer about why we aren't seeing inflation despite all the money that seems to be getting poured into the economy.

We experienced a severe deflationary event when all the banks and other investors lost so much money on bad mortgage backed securities. That money wasn't just lost, that money disappeared, and that was the hugely deflationary event. Paulson, Bernanke, and Geithner had to replace that lost money with more money for more reasons than just keeping the financial system afloat, they had to stop the deflation that was already going on.

So they kept the financial system alive, but, as simonyadig pointed out, the banks aren't lending the way they used to. I know this first hand because I just refinance my house, and the documentation standards went way, way up from the last time I got a mortgage. So, the banks are getting the money, but that money isn't flowing out to consumers in a way that will cause inflation. It seems like the only beneficiaries of this money are hedge funds and investment banks, which borrow the money at low rates, and use the money to play the markets, which has propped up prices in stocks and commodities.

We would be seeing even more deflation except the government, in a paradoxical way, has lowered its lending standards to banks; the government is allowing banks to carry bad assets on their books without forcing the usual reserve requirements. Banks, in turn, are holding onto defaulted mortgage properties much longer. We should have been seeing a flood of REO properties hitting the market. Instead, there's a steady but controllable supply of short-sale properties hitting the market.

Wages and employment are still under severe pressure. More and more employers are no longer providing health insurance. Vehicle prices are also under pressure. And property taxes are falling in many areas.

We're seeing deflation, but because gasoline and food prices haven't fallen, people don't yet recognize it.
In my opinion, the accounting system kind of allowed all this fluctuation to happen, Lehman and many other financial firms were so powerful they manipulated their B/S and I/S, repo105 as an example. Many others. What happens is that Lender A gives money to the bank, the bank then invests the money in another firm, and then the manipulation of Assets/Liabilities come into play, all this while all our capital is being slowly moved into China thus creating trade friction. And to keep Chinas economy pumping steam, they have to artificially hold the Yuan low, printing more reserves while holding foreign currency as collateral. However recently have been shifting some assets towards gold from the IMF fund.

Lots of thoughts that just ran through my head. Although no direct relevance to this thread but it does sorta explain the DEFLATION we're experiencing now.
post #152 of 203



whaddaya guys think? have we put in a top for the right shoulder yet? hmm...
post #153 of 203
Thread Starter 
Too early to tell IMO.

The markets still have some rally left in them, lots of free money being made on the low fed rates.
post #154 of 203
Also the right shoulder, if being formed, will not turn on a dime most likely. It has to establish the right should just like the left was.
post #155 of 203
"The trend is your friend",

"Trade the trend",

etc.

It's still up, that's all I need to know.
post #156 of 203
head and shoulder ????? no way the U.S stock market can't and will not go to level of 1985-1990 ( chart above ) .....instead it will start a great uptrend and 7500 PTS is the support for the dow......
post #157 of 203
Very nice chart, i noticed since i started investing that the hardest part is not picking stocks its not second guessing yourself no matter how the market performs, i guess with time people manage to become better at this, but in the end we are still human.
post #158 of 203
Quote:
Originally Posted by 22rowdy View Post
"The trend is your friend",

"Trade the trend",

etc.

It's still up, that's all I need to know.
Spot on.
post #159 of 203
I have heard that we are in the third cyclical bull market withing a secular bear market. The last drop is supposed to be a doozy. But then the markets should start another secular bull market.

I just don't want to get wiped out in any 'correction' so I can have something to invest when the new secular bull market starts.
post #160 of 203
Technical chart patterns are less accurate when comparing larger time frames.
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