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Chart of 1929 - 1933 stock market crash

post #1 of 201
11/27/08 at 7:26pm
Thread Starter 
While the initial part of the 1929 chart looks exactly like the current Dow chart, the difference in 2008 is that we just tossed $2T at the problem. Lets see how closely the charts will correlate over the next three years!



Updated chart Feb 24th

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...49#post2375349

Updated May 6th , Black Swan post 166

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...91#post2466491
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post #2 of 201
11/27/08 at 7:30pm
^
LMAO!!!
LMAO!!!
LMAO!!!
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post #3 of 201
11/27/08 at 8:38pm
There is no comparison between then and now.
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post #4 of 201
11/27/08 at 8:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeryLowRoller View Post
There is no comparison between then and now.
agreed
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post #5 of 201
11/27/08 at 8:56pm
human emotion never changes....
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post #6 of 201
11/27/08 at 9:04pm
me believes were at 189.66 right now.
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post #7 of 201
11/27/08 at 9:13pm
^ i concur
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post #8 of 201
11/27/08 at 9:32pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeryLowRoller View Post
There is no comparison between then and now.
Every crash is different, but the chart pattern is pretty dead on so far:

On the left if 1929, on the right is the current Dow.

The difference this time around is we can learn from the lessons of the past, so going forward, the charts should be different if the bail outs are helping. If not, then refer to 1929.



What Im illustrating above is the similarity between the recent peak to the first big bounce in the Dow in the most recent plunge we just had, and in 1929. Its like looking in the mirror.
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post #9 of 201
11/27/08 at 9:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeryLowRoller View Post
There is no comparison between then and now.
Thanks for your opinion.
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post #10 of 201
11/27/08 at 9:51pm
It going to be alot more than 2T by the time its over.
More like 7T + they will end up sinking into it.. why not just start another country for that cost lol

nice chart tho.. very interesting..
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post #11 of 201
11/27/08 at 9:53pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjoke View Post
It going to be alot more than 2T by the time its over.
More like 7T + they will end up sinking into it.. why not just start another country for that cost lol

nice chart tho.. very interesting..
Agreed, this is going to cost a lot more than anybody expected.
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post #12 of 201
11/27/08 at 10:46pm
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post #13 of 201
11/27/08 at 10:54pm
Unions, greed, margins, stockholders...all of that is part of the problem
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post #14 of 201
11/27/08 at 11:48pm
sad part about is the fact that depsite this horrendous market meltdown, the US conintues to go down that same path.

boy is this a screwed wordl..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zixi View Post
1954 - USA Company XYX makes Widgets. They pay USA taxes and hire Americans to make products and parts to those products. 2000 - 2008 They move factory’s to Mexico to make products. They buy the parts for products from China. They staff product help/customer service lines in India. They move cooperation to Dubia to avoid USA taxes. Now they sell products and stock to Americans. How can that be sustained? That is system we have now.
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post #15 of 201
11/28/08 at 12:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter21 View Post
sad part about is the fact that depsite this horrendous market meltdown, the US conintues to go down that same path.

boy is this a screwed wordl..
Well what would you do, pay 15% more to keep your workforce in America where everyone thinks they're underpaid and under appreciated, and slacks off during the job because of it.......or to not pay 25% more and have your workforce overseas where people are glad to be working for you, stay late almost everyday if they need to, and are appreciative of how much you are paying them (even though it's less than the Americans)?

If you ask me, it's a smart business move....sure it sucks for the US, but great for the corporations...how many companies you think want to get the short end of the stick when they know they don't have to?
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post #16 of 201
11/28/08 at 12:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeryLowRoller View Post
There is no comparison between then and now.
Now is worse
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post #17 of 201
11/28/08 at 3:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
Every crash is different, but the chart pattern is pretty dead on so far:

On the left if 1929, on the right is the current Dow.

The difference this time around is we can learn from the lessons of the past, so going forward, the charts should be different if the bail outs are helping. If not, then refer to 1929.



What Im illustrating above is the similarity between the recent peak to the first big bounce in the Dow in the most recent plunge we just had, and in 1929. Its like looking in the mirror.
well, if we do similar comparison, at what point will this rally start to turn back in comparison to the 1929 chart.
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post #18 of 201
11/28/08 at 5:30pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nakata703 View Post
well, if we do similar comparison, at what point will this rally start to turn back in comparison to the 1929 chart.
In 1929, the market rallied from this extreme low +50% over 4 months. If that scenario holds here, that means the Dow should be rallying into March.

Again, no two crashes are the same, so we will not see the exact same pattern here.
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post #19 of 201
11/28/08 at 5:35pm
Yeah I have a feeling we still go higher, maybe back to 10k still. This market is going to fake a lot of people out. Shorting here is just too obvious.
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post #20 of 201
11/28/08 at 6:02pm
Thread Starter 
A possible scenario for a continuing rally is that retailers will say that they had a big week with record sales (not revenues), and gas prices are lower... they will find some excuse to try keep the market up.

On the other hand, former tech leaders AAPL and RIMM did not participate in this rally today, all the focus is on financials and GM. Once the buyers have are done, we may be out of leadership, and down we go.
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