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The coming commodity bubble '2009-2011' - Page 6

post #101 of 206
I read that book you had suggest before by the way, "TA and Stock Market Profits, The Real Bible". I learned a ton from that, great TA book, will probably need to read it again though, was a little hard to follow. Finding myself to be more interested in the general picture of things though, opposed to just straight TA, as straight TA sort of bores me, but I guess its probably what most traders make their living off of.
post #102 of 206
Thread Starter 
I'm sorry but I dont know of book that speaks about the similarities and differences between them. If your interested in knowing more about bonds and how they can help you look at the bigger economic/market picture take a look at:

"The strategic bond Investor: Strategies and Tools to unlock the Power of the bond market" by Anthony Crescenzi.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds View Post
I actually meant more broad. Am looking for something that can show me correlation between the currency markets, and the equity markets in general? I don't even know if something like this exists, but I figure since I am learning currency, I could try to kill 2 birds with 1 stone. Also that part of bonds being a leading indicator, that sounds interesting too, would like to learn about that also. I don't know really, anything that can teach me some new things related to this sort of stuff, I don't exactly know where I'm going with this, so I hope you have some idea
post #103 of 206
Ty, ill check that out
post #104 of 206
Thread Starter 
Let the mania begin. Yesterdays action by the Federal Reserve sealed the continuing death spiral in equity(USD denominated) prices for the next decade. Chairman Bernanke played his last hand yesterday by trying to once again pump more money(debt) into the system to try restore credit flow. If this does not work, it is virtually impossible for the U.S to come out of the hole(other measures will have to be taken then).

Commodites are the only safe heaven. Treasuries are close to going bust. Once the dollar falls of the cliff(1-2 years), you are going to get confirmation of this treasury bubble that has help soothe part of the bigger derivative bubble that is going bust.

Protect your paper assets even if their related to commodity related names with TIPS.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
You can buy Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) directly from the U.S. Treasury or through a bank, broker, or dealer. TIPS are issued in terms of 5, 10, and 20 years, and are offered in multiples of $100.
post #105 of 206
Gold and oil in the last 24 hours is a decent indication of where commodities are going. Someone on CNBC said this morning "I don't know what's going on with Gold and Oil prices" and I almost fell out of my seat. Nobody wants to say "printing more money to fix this mess is a bad idea," or at least not on TV if you have 'affiliations.'
post #106 of 206
Thread Starter 
Bump

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
I took the time to show you and others some reference points that I am looking for on each of these names. Like I said before and I'll say it again, I am in most but not all of the names shown above. You want to build core positions now and trade around that position all year long.

REMEMBER, LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE. TRADE AROUND THOSE LEVELS.

Below I am posting levels that you should consider buying in and levels you should be considering selling out of. You'll have to delve deeper into the precise price of each trade.

Do not expect any of these stocks to reach any of these upper resistance levels this year(2009). These are all 5-10 year price ranges(dependable on exogenous variables).

$20>BTU<$42
$13>ACI<$36
$9>MEE<$39
$14>WLT<$40
$24>CNX<$61
$14>ANR<$43
$36>NUE<$57
$24>CLF<$55
$22>MT<$57
$22>ATI<$65
$22>FCX<$70
$10>RIO<$21
$70>RTP<$280
$21>GDX<52-week high
$71>GLD<52-week high
$9>SLV<52- week high
$64>POT<$151
$28>MOS<$82
$54>MON<$103
$35>SLB<$73
$24>BHI<$64
$41>RIG<$82
$26>USO<$64
$18>NOV<$49
$70>XOM<$95

Happy new year and good luck in 2009 to all
post #107 of 206
A lot of those stocks are still at or below their buy levels.... do you still think these are worth getting into right now?

ACI
NUE
CLF
MT
ATI
XOM
post #108 of 206
Pisoni on CNBC introducing an interviewee, asking him why he thinks commodities are a good play in the near future. He asked the guy like his guest was a mutant. Unreal.
post #109 of 206
Do we have an official commodity stock thread? Cause we need one, unless this is becoming one
post #110 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristopherS View Post
A lot of those stocks are still at or below their buy levels.... do you still think these are worth getting into right now?

ACI
NUE
CLF
MT
ATI
XOM
I know CLF well. Bought at the last dip to 12, sold yesterday at 15. Will buy again but waiting till next week to see what happens. CLF(Cliff's mining) is doing well and word is they are cancelling a scheduled layoff that was planned for this summer. Many employees that took volunteer layoffs this winter have gone back to work now. This stock see's upper 20's often breaking 30 and is due to pop.

CLF owns 2 large iron mines in my area. They are expanding their pellatizing plant with new technology which will provide a higher quality ore at a reduced price.

Another one is RTP(Rio Tinto) who owns Kennecot mining. They have jumped through all the whoops to mine a very large copper/nickel ore body near us called the Eagle Project. They're stock price is up and I'd wait for a pullback though.
post #111 of 206
Thread Starter 
I thought it was more than appropriate to bump this thread today given the big rally that we have seen unravel within the commodity complex(as measured in part by GSCI). Since commodities bottomed in Novemeber, we've seen commdoities as a group rally over 60% in 7 months(the day this thread was started).

A weaker dollar has helped propel most basic commodites higher recently but that alone is not inflationary nor is it the reason why we seen such volatile and dense activity occur within various commodities. The real reason why we've seen this rally come to fruition is really due in large part because of a higher risk appetite that both funds and individual investors alike share. Not only are these people seeking hefty returns in both the short and long run but look to hedge all assets(paper mostly) with paper commodites in the short run(to in part help finance trading ventures) while buying the actual commodity for the long run(to preserve capital).

I hope most of you caught this rally. I kept reiterating over and over late last year why paper commodites was the place to be in the short run while remaining cognnizant of the fact that owning the actual hard commodity itself over the long run was and is still the way to play the equity markets today.
As always, lighten up on strong moves and slowly get involved on pullbacks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
I took the time to show you and others some reference points that I am looking for on each of these names. Like I said before and I'll say it again, I am in most but not all of the names shown above. You want to build core positions now and trade around that position all year long.

REMEMBER, LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE. TRADE AROUND THOSE LEVELS.

Below I am posting levels that you should consider buying in and levels you should be considering selling out of. You'll have to delve deeper into the precise price of each trade.

Do not expect any of these stocks to reach any of these upper resistance levels this year(2009). These are all 5-10 year price ranges(dependable on exogenous variables).

$20>BTU<$42
$13>ACI<$36
$9>MEE<$39
$14>WLT<$40
$24>CNX<$61
$14>ANR<$43
$36>NUE<$57
$24>CLF<$55
$22>MT<$57
$22>ATI<$65
$22>FCX<$70
$10>RIO<$21
$70>RTP<$280
$21>GDX<52-week high
$71>GLD<52-week high
$9>SLV<52- week high
$64>POT<$151
$28>MOS<$82
$54>MON<$103
$35>SLB<$73
$24>BHI<$64
$41>RIG<$82
$26>USO<$64
$18>NOV<$49
$70>XOM<$95

Happy new year and good luck in 2009 to all
post #112 of 206
Good thread. Couldn't agree more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
I thought it was more than appropriate to bump this thread today given the big rally that we have seen unravel within the commodity complex(as measured in part by GSCI). Since commodities bottomed in Novemeber, we've seen commdoities as a group rally over 60% in 7 months(the day this thread was started).

A weaker dollar has helped propel most basic commodites higher recently but that alone is not inflationary nor is it the reason why we seen such volatile and dense activity occur within various commodities. The real reason why we've seen this rally come to fruition is really due in large part because of a higher risk appetite that both funds and individual investors alike share. Not only are these people seeking hefty returns in both the short and long run but look to hedge all assets(paper mostly) with paper commodites in the short run(to in part help finance trading ventures) while buying the actual commodity for the long run(to preserve capital).

I hope most of you caught this rally. I kept reiterating over and over late last year why paper commodites was the place to be in the short run while remaining cognnizant of the fact that owning the actual hard commodity itself over the long run was and is still the way to play the equity markets today.
As always, lighten up on strong moves and slowly get involved on pullbacks.
post #113 of 206
completely agreed. mr. winky, bigbull and others, what do you guys make of the breakup between Chonolco and RTP?.
post #114 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter21 View Post
completely agreed. mr. winky, bigbull and others, what do you guys make of the breakup between Chonolco and RTP?.
It dropped RTP to $175 yesterday, but it rebounded to HOD of $185 and is currently trading prehours at $197 so I guess it didn't have as negative of effect as was thought.

And I agree with the post. I've been heavy in commodities for the last 6 months or more.
post #115 of 206
big props to you again bigbull, you saw this commodity bubble for miles away
all of the names on the list are up over 40%

one quick question(i know your out but if you see this message please answer). earlier you said that deflationary pressures are most likely going to put a market ceiling on prices going into 2010. if so, is it realistic to assume that commodities companies like a FCX will stall in 2010-2011 or is this he sector that is going to outpreform the entire market in the coming two years. in other words, is the commodity bubble over or is there still a chance to catch it. do you advice people to buy once we get another "violent" correction in the markets like you expect sometime in 2010-2013? thanks

there are a lot of big buyers in oil, gold and copper so it has definetely caught attention of many.

i realize that this is a bubble, do you expect it eventually go bust?
post #116 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter21 View Post
all of the names on the list are up over 40%
The DOW is up 40 percent. How is that remarkable? Most of the stocks I bought in March are up over 100 percent (C, WFC, BAC, ASH, etc, etc). The only commodity I am concerned about having a bubble is Gold at the moment. However, Gold gets pumped day in and out on TV from the companies benefiting from the increased price.

G. Gordon Liddy here, pitching something selling at a peak!
post #117 of 206
well names like fcx, wlt, cnx, clf, mee among others of which he mentioned here back in november are up some 200%, whats your point?
i was talking about it in general terms(weighted). the nams he recommended are up way over 40%.

in addittion, im just trying to point out that he correctly called the commodity bottom back in november and expected to see infaltion(or a weak dollar) to propel commodities higher this year. that is all.

as for gold, id agree, gold imo is in a bubble but it is still in its early stages.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jafox View Post
The DOW is up 40 percent. How is that remarkable? Most of the stocks I bought in March are up over 100 percent (C, WFC, BAC, ASH, etc, etc). The only commodity I am concerned about having a bubble is Gold at the moment. However, Gold gets pumped day in and out on TV from the companies benefiting from the increased price.

G. Gordon Liddy here, pitching something selling at a peak!
post #118 of 206
Deutsche Bank's Choi Discusses Commodities Strategy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4nBl6EWY9I&feature=sub
post #119 of 206
Subscribes. Thanks for bumping this thread Norlan.
post #120 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by qu4rk View Post
Subscribes. Thanks for bumping this thread Norlan.
Good deal.

I was watching copper future the whole day today, except for times when i fell asleep or was at work, it failed to hold above 3.0. Commodities can barely stay above water while certain financial and tech names held in green. Stock shoppers are being very selective and tend to go after major production firms
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