CG - Centerra Gold - Page 3

Yes I believe from the financials i read GCE is now free of debt - as Brookfield converted their debt into shares. The prices for coal sales for this upcoming Q should be over 220$ a tonne average for their met coal and we are expecting fuel prices to decline with price of oil dropping nearly 90$ a bbl in the past few months from a high of 145$. So their actual costs for production should go down while their sales remaiin high due to locked in contracts. I expect similar numbers next Q - about .50 a share in earnings.

GCE has been pushed down so far IMO because coal prices are expected to drop significantly this coming year.. mouser you mention they have a contract into 09 at set pricing.. is it for all of 09?

Yes analysts are predicting coal prices to drop - and they will soften some - but even the most negative predictions are 120- 150 a ton for met coal and that is still far above where the prices were 2 years ago. AND analysts have been wrong a lot more than right. A lot can happen in six months, including a fall in the US$$ which would bring commodity prices back up.
GCE still looks profitable at coal prices half of where they are now and thge fact remains that by the time GCE's current contracts expire in April 09 they will be sitting on well over 120 million in cash by all estimates. They are ridiculously low iin valuation here IMHO.
Back to CG - they also dependent on gold prices heading higher and not lower- so who do you listen to? Some ANALysts say gold heading for sub 600$ levels again - other say its going to 2000$- you pays your money and you takes your chances.
I happen to believe the BRIC countries infrastructure buildup is going to continue despite a huge weakness in America , and this should keep commodity prices strong.

I doubt that a fall in the US$ will soon come. I was to believe the same a while ago and made some money on gold and lost some money. I sat back and then realized we already lowered all rates as much as we are going to. The only way for it to head is back up once inflation starts picking up. With that being said other countries are just now starting to lower their rates which is going to lower their currency value. So when that happens people will come running back to the US$ which has been happening and commodity prices will continue to decline that has been happening. Thats why i see oil at 45 a barrel by JAN. Gold will be the movement only when the dollar starts to lose ground

I have to agree with the points you make man.. GOLD has shown NO strength at all in the last couple months in a time of great financial uncertainty and huge market volatality.. NORMALLY times when gold rises dramatically in price. Therefore IMO there is no reason to believe there will be any changes in this for the foreseeable future. I am a gold bear Mouser I hope you are right for the sake of all Canadians (BRIC growth) but i just cannot see much of any super-bullish signs from BRIC nations. Russia is in a crisis, China is arguably a bubble and Brazil has been weakened in part by the commodity crash too. Like I say I wish this magical BRIC could save Canada by devouring resources like no tomorrow but it just doesnt appear like that is the case..

Well we shall see what transpires in the next year- what i do know is that the US is the most indebted country in the world and have increased their money supply by over double in a few short months. History has shown that this will eventually lead to commodity price inflation- how long the bigboys can keep this charade up ( us $) is anybody's guess.

gold looking to go down once these MFs get off t.v

CG up nicely today 16% at this moment