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UNG - Natural Gas ETF - Page 52

post #1021 of 1355
i dont think its selling..the buyers are going to start comming in...
n.american weather is still not cold...
i think its still got more room to move up...$5-6 range
post #1022 of 1355
Ahaha, I knew this would happen. Back down to where it was before the spike, after shaking out my short. I should've stuck with my stop price at 6.25.
post #1023 of 1355
UNG, one of the rare threads where longs and shorts all make money in the same trading session.
post #1024 of 1355
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
UNG, one of the rare threads where longs and shorts all make money in the same trading session.
post #1025 of 1355
Nat gas moving nicely today
post #1026 of 1355
ung held support and making higher highs and higher lows...

nice stairstep pattern....im still holding my position
post #1027 of 1355
Getting into some Jan or Feb 7 calls for a Natural gas winter run.
post #1028 of 1355
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFbamafan View Post
Getting into some Jan or Feb 7 calls for a Natural gas winter run.
Good "call" (pun intended). Might have to try and pick some up this week if they dip back a bit.
post #1029 of 1355
nat gas is going higher...the charts got a nice stairstep chart..the type that everyone loves...

pick up on dips
post #1030 of 1355
looking for a dip/consolidation back down to $6 before the bulls gather themselves for another run.
post #1031 of 1355
anyone picking some up today?
post #1032 of 1355
Nope, staying away, supplies are high, support levels taken out. Sitting this one out.
post #1033 of 1355
I would personally avoid long positions in UNG like the plague because of its decaying nature. Instead I'll probably buy into FCG soon.
post #1034 of 1355
Schork Oil Outlook: Has NatGas Peaked for the Winter?
Published: Friday, 17 Dec 2010 | 11:49 AM ET Text Size
By: Stephen Schork
Editor, The Schork Report

Yesterday the spot market for January delivery plunged by nearly 5% after the EIA reported a 164 Bcf drawdown in inventory last week. Mind you, there was nothing bullish about the report, i.e. a 164 Bcf draw is on the extreme of the seasonal norm.

What’s more, as detailed in today’s issue of The Schork Report, we are going to see another extreme draw next Thursday as well. Be that as it may, we are now on the doorstep of the winter solstice and gas bulls are scrambling to defend $4.

As we have noted throughout October and November, the historical tendency for Nymex natural gas is to rally and then peak in the fourth quarter.


"We question if the $4.637 high print from a week ago (09-Dec) will wind up being this winter’s high print. After all, there is precedent for it.”

Stephen Schork
The Schork Report
Counter to intuition, we tend to see the highest price for consumption commodities, especially natural gas, in the lead up to the season as fear and uncertainty regarding the market’s ability to meet looming demand gets priced into the front end of the curve.

In this vein, we question if the $4.637 high print from a week ago (09-Dec) will wind up being this winter’s high print. After all, there is precedent for it. In fifteen of the last twenty heating seasons, the winter high in the Nymex Henry Hub contract was posted in the fourth quarter.

In other words, in three out of every four heating seasons the high on the Nymex was put in three weeks prior to the coldest period of the season, the fourth week following the solstice (January 21st). Furthermore, on average the winter’s high is posted on December 07th with half of the highs occurring before November 30th.

Therefore, last week’s high, if it stands — and there is reason to believe it will stand — will fall within two days of the average of the last twenty winters.
post #1035 of 1355
UNG +4% today, back to the level it sold of from.

This is a tough one to trade, at least for me because I got stopped out on that last drop...
post #1036 of 1355
Whole buncha great articles out today on natgas pricing at SeekingAlpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/tag/natural-gas
post #1037 of 1355
I think it could be a good idea to go short UNG and long FCG. I'll have to crunch some longer term numbers but at least for the last 3-6-12 months this would've been profitable. One problem is that the price of UNG is way low already and Scottrade won't let me initiate a short position if the stock goes below $5 so any kind of rebalancing will get difficult unless they reverse split.

Right now I'm holding FCG from Friday, but the short UNG could be an interesting pseudo-hedge as it tends to go down even faster during periods when FCG is going down.
post #1038 of 1355
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
UNG +4% today, back to the level it sold of from.

This is a tough one to trade, at least for me because I got stopped out on that last drop...
thought you might appreciate the title of this article



Natural Gas: Where Bullish Dreams Go to Die?
5 comments | December 22, 2010 | about: CHK / COG / DNR / DVN / EOG / FCG / GAZ / HK / HNUZF.PK / RRC / UNG / UNL


Status: December, the month that was (mostly in-jest) discussed during the fall to risk coming in as a net build, is in some calculations (owing to very cold weather) now competing with December 2002's record storage draw of -723 Bcf (record back to 1975).

And yet we can’t hold $4.25 in the January contract. Some context on that number: The lowest January expiry in the past 9 years was the January 2003 expiry…at $4.988.

Over the past two years, more bullish dreams have died along the NYMEX NG curve, and the myriad of investment proxies surrounding it, than almost anywhere else in the global financial big-top. This, despite symphonies of research reports, expert analyses, and “market sage” announcements that 2009, 2010, and now 2011, will be the year for the gas turnaround (although admittedly, and rather interestingly, the calls for 2011 are nowhere nearly as numerous as the two previous years. Bullish sign? Not likely quite yet.)
post #1039 of 1355
Big move into the lunch hour, are buyers back?

This feels like the ole switcharoo move.

Everybody buys nat gas into winter expecting a move higher, it drops and kills the longs.

Now they throw in the towel, watch it rally into the spring.
post #1040 of 1355
must be US weather driving this
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