STEC - STEC Inc. - Page 6

Opinions:

Nov 3rd,they release earnings. With the recent indecision on the stock price, I've bought a strangle.

Now it's a Feb. 2010 strangle using the $50 calls and the 7.5 puts.

I think it will move close to one of these prices by that time.

Earnings after the market closes today.

Webbush at it again. They came out this morning re-affirming there "target", and the stock pops today 7%. I think they need a change of profession.

Wedbush reits their Outperform and $39 tgt on STEC ahead of earnings tonight. Firm expects the co to report Q3 results above consensus due to strong demand for ZeusIOPs at its leading Tier I customer, EMC. Firm also looks for the co to guide Q4 above consensus as well.


STEC, Inc.
(NasdaqGS: STEC)

After Hours: 15.95 Down 7.46 (32.22%) 4:59pm ET

an fallin'

What's the skinny on this? Looks like a possible rebound play.

In a nut shell, I think its the fear of competition and the delay in the order as written below. P/E at close was 50, now its around half that if it opens where its at.

* Q3 EPS $0.47 vs $0.02 yr ago

* Q3 rev up 50 pct

* Sees Q4 adj EPS $0.51-$0.53 vs est $0.52

* Shares down 33 pct

Nov 3 (Reuters) - Stec Inc (STEC.O) posted a higher third-quarter profit, helped partly by a rise in gross margins, but shares tumbled 33 percent as the company warned orders from a key customer could be at risk in the first quarter.

"One of our customers entered into a $120 million supply agreement with us for shipments covering the second half of 2009," Chief Executive Manouch Moshayedi said, adding the customer might carry inventory of one of its product into 2010, and potentially hurting first-quarter orders.

Stec, which makes flash memory storage products, also forecast fourth-quarter earnings of 51 cents to 53 cents a share, before items, on revenue of $101 million to $103 million.

Analysts on average were expecting 52 cents a share, excluding items, on revenue of $106 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

For the third quarter, Stec earned $24.5 million, or 47 cents a share, compared with $1.2 million, or 2 cents a share, a year ago. Excluding items, it earned 50 cents a share.

Revenue grew 50 percent to $98.3 million.

Analysts were expecting earnings of 47 cents a share, before items, on revenue of $96.6 million.

Third-quarter gross margins rose to 49.7 percent from 32.1 percent a year ago.

The company counts hardware OEMs such as IBM Corp (IBM.N) and Hitachi (6501.T) among its larger customers.

Shares of the Santa Ana, California-based company fell 33 percent to $15.60 in trading after the bell. They closed at $23.15 Tuesday on Nasdaq. (Reporting by Manasi Phadke in Bangalore; Editing by Pradeep Kurup)

I just noticed this. Almost half the float is SHORT. It ain't going back up any time soon, imo. Not unless some major big deals come out. That prediction of it going back to $5 might just be the case.

I just saw that... Would you buy now or wait till tomorrow? That's a steep dive; I can see a major rebound, but I don't want to catch a falling knife.

K thxxx

That move is absurd. Makes no rationale sense at all, and this coming from someone who couldn't care less. The amount of "fear" in this market is ridiculous.

They pulled a nice profit, but it tanked???? I think some are worried about their statements about one of their large customers.

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." -- Warren Buffett

are you guys getting in now or waiting. this is a huge drop!

I'm still watching. It dropped that far in yesterdays AH, and I expected it to rebound a little today, which it didn't. Based on that, I'm gonna wait for now. I have a hunch there's more to the story based on that big of a drop.

I'd be cautious about this stock if I were you. This was a $5 stock back in Jan 2009. I didn't read into the details much, but concerns weighing on one big customer and cost over 30% of stock? This company doesn't seem too diversified to me. Plus they're selling flash drives as part of their core business and that signals me lack of sustainability. I'd be worried even for a big name like Sandisk. Tech sector is not an easy field to play in if you dunno who your competitors are

i expect this to fill that gap between 10.25 and 13.50. Once it does that, I think $9.00 is support. Just my opinion

This is still tanking- I'm glad I went with my gut.

not sure what to make of this, cant find any news but nice recovery today

Looks like that day was a bit of short covering cause the next day, those gains were taken away.

It's currently on top of the support of 13.00 and it needs to hold that line if it wants to go back up. Double bottom?
The daily chart is showing it oversold( <-- is that the correct term, for it being sold off too much?)
The weekly chart can move lower and support is about 9.95.
The hourly chart is using the 50 period SMA as resistance, so it's anyones ball game.

I think it needs another 15% off before it moves back up. Just my opinion, and that's been wrong many times.

I'm still going with this call:

any new input on stec guys?

http://wallstnation.com/POT-GSK-STEC-12122009

"STEC (STEC): The maker of solid-state drives has $130 million cash in the bank, no debt, a $650 million market cap, and trades for just six times forward earnings. The stock collapsed in November when it announced that EMC had an inventory glut of STEC's SSD product. In other words, EMC ordered too much. Since EMC is the company's largest customer, it threw into doubt its earnings expectations. JP Morgan's analyst came out and said he still sees the company earning $2 per share in 2010 and put a $42 price target on the stock. Not bad for a $12 stock. "