HLF - Herbalife Ltd

Probably the most expensive weight loss option ever. But I hear it works quite well

getting killed

Bombing right now....

AP
Herbalife 3Q profit rises, but outlook disappoints
Monday November 3, 6:40 pm ET
Herbalife 3rd-quarter earnings rise, outlook 2008, 2009 outlooks lower than Wall Street

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Herbalife Ltd., which sells nutritional and weight-loss supplements, said Monday its third-quarter earnings rose as international sales increased while operating margins held steady.

The company also issued profit forecasts for the fourth quarter and both 2008 and 2009 that were well below Wall Street estimates. That sent Herbalife shares tumbling more than 15 percent in electronic aftermarket trading.

Net income rose to $58.1 million, or 89 cents per share, from $48.3 million, or 67 cents per share, a year ago.

Sales growth in the U.S., Brazil, China and Italy helped total revenue jump 14 percent to $602.2 million.

Analysts expected profit of 86 cents per share on revenue of $621 million, according to Thomson Reuters.

The company said the dollar's recent sharp appreciation against major world currencies has eaten into sales and profits in the current quarter.

It said a 10 percent decline by a currency against the dollar would lower sales by 7 percent and earnings per share by 22 percent. The company operates in 69 countries, but said most of its foreign currency exposure is to the euro and Mexican peso.

Herbalife expects fourth-quarter earnings between 65 cents and 75 cents per share. Wall Street is looking for 87 cents per share.

For the year, the company anticipates $3.50 to $3.55 per share, while analysts expected $3.68 per share. Looking to next year, the company sees profit of $3 to $3.20 per share

Shares slid $3.95, or 16 percent, to $21.50 in after-hours trading after closing at $25.45 Monday. In the past year, the stock has ranged from $19.70 to $51.09.

time to buy????

 

holy crap...just dropped 19% wth and they had good earnings too. Only thing I see is some dude David Einhorn asked some questions and BAMMM it dropped WTF. Who the hell is this guy?

 

ahhh I found more info about this guy...dam him and his hedge fund company! damm them.

 

http://marketmontage.com/2012/05/01/herbalife-hlf-suffers-one-two-punch-of-weak-forecast-and-david-einhorn/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketmontage%2Fxyz+%28Market+Montage%29

I haven't read all of it yet but here is some of the questions..I got some calls @ 55. Should come back. Heard some banks also defending.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/05/01/the-einhorn-herbalife-exchange-transcript/

 

"A Note On Risk Management and HLF" by Antichartjunk.com

 

May 1, 2012:

 

"If you follow the markets intraday, you probably are well aware of the action in HLF.  It currently sits atop of StockTwits trending tickers.  I will not get into David Einhorn’s questions and the news surrounding the stock but I think there a few great lessons from today’s action.

 

First of all, for the intermediate trader, HLF highlights the importance of heavy volume when buying at a pivot point.  HLF had been performing well this year through the strong uptrend and into the mild correction where it was supported at its 50-day.  There were no major signs of institutional selling (until today).  A square-box base (which you can read more about here) appeared with a buy point of 72.21 along with a moderate bounce from the 50-day while the overall market showed slight signs of accumulation.  However, heavy volume in HLF did not appear in this buy range so a buy here was more risky. 

 

A more aggressive trader, knowingly accepting more risk and thereby decreasing the position size, still could perhaps have purchased around 72.21.  A reasonable stop-loss from this point would have been under the 50-day moving average around 66.33  or slightly higher than 66.33 just below the April lows which would have prevented a major loss (as evidenced today) but also would have given the stock enough room to handle the potential typical swings.  Selling at around 66.33 would have resulted in an 8% loss which would have prevented a 25% loss by holding on.  Of note huge volume to the downside like today typically points to future selling at least in the short term.

 

Another rule some traders follow is to avoid starting a position right before earnings.  I  do not follow this rule exactly but it is certainly something I consider before purchasing a stock.  From my experience, growth stocks that appear to be performing well are performing well for a reason and strength before an earnings report can be a sign of a strong earnings report on the horizon, such as recently shown by ISRG, GNC and today in FIRE.  Obviously, this is not always the case as evidenced by HLF today and in even AAPL which was performing poorly into a strong earnings report.

 

If one wants to signficantly lower risk, one could possibly steer clear of buying stocks within a week of their earnings report but one should also only buy with heavy volume within a buying range and always prepare a stop-loss before starting a position."

picked up calls, 2 months out.. kinda overdone from someones comments.

I dont care if its 70% from distributors, profit is profit..

 

Makes me remind what did happen to SPRD some months ago.

Of course he is... at least he has the sack to put his name and face out there, unlike all the Goldmanites who might as well be part of the brick and mortar holding their building up. Einhorn is a pretty reasonable guy compared to the sewer rats of his ilk, placed around 16th in the WSOP about 7 years ago, gave all his winnings to charity. You might remember him from the white sweatshirt with kids' handprints all over it (the one he wore the entire main event).

He owns like 60-75% of the OS in BIOF, in his name or his affiliates'... look at that junk... but it runs hard as hell from time to time. You have to know he just gets in at ground floor and back out at the top, with partial positions. Friend of mine has been running that same game on BIOF for over a year.

Also, if you want to know more about his moves in the past, check him out whacking St. Joe's... I do think this play eventually blew up in his face as IIRC he got stuck short.

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-joe-2010-10

keeps falling and falling...

 

wonder if this can be a head fake