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UAL - United Continental - Page 14

post #261 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by fairstock View Post
we should be able to see 40 -50$ / share range in the future.
maybe if inflation runs 15-20% annually. IMO airlines could possibly be one of the worst long term buy-and-hold possible.. even with decent hedging at some point fuel costs are going to cripple this sector permanently.
post #262 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by G_Ho View Post
Closed out my 50 at +.33. What a great friday! Booyah!

Glad I added more at .60 when I did.
WOW. Just wow. I guess selling the Jan 10s at 1 wasn't a good idea
post #263 of 350
Wow, so i shorted this... COMPLETELY FORGOT about christmas and the travelling of flights......
post #264 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by skwerl View Post
This comment coming from the guy who bought SRS last week not knowing it was a 2X bear ETF?
LOL...seriously though, this thing hasn't broke $16 in two years. I've been writing covered calls on it for that long. Good luck to all of you who are in it though. I'd like to see $21 just to get rid of it.
post #265 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post
LOL...seriously though, this thing hasn't broke $16 in two years. I've been writing covered calls on it for that long. Good luck to all of you who are in it though. I'd like to see $21 just to get rid of it.
Before it can get to $21, it has to break resistance @ $16-ish. If buddy hadn't tried to blow up the plane on Christmas, I think we'd be testing that by next week. But it needed some breathing room anyway. It had been running for a while.

Either way, IMO $21 will only be possible if earning come in HUGE over expectations. Then again, it did last time & then the other underperformers pulled it down. So, we shall see.
post #266 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by fairstock View Post
13.16 bid X 13.17 ask
Where is fairstock when you need him? We're inching up closer to that resistance level from Oct/Nov '08. Anyone have any insight to which direction it will head from here?
post #267 of 350
Thread Starter 
Was the impetus of this rally the beginning of that decade run that I spoke of a couple of years ago?

Most airline stocks have hiked various fees in the past few years to combat higher fuel (jetfuel) costs. Despite oil and jetfuel coming down considerably since their highs, all airlines companies havn't removed any of these fees, allowing them to grow their margins. Whats more, with recent security concerns, airline companies are set to create new fees which are probably going to be enforced for years. With oil most likely to flirt between $60-$100 for the next decade, the airline industry could generate some handsome returns in thsi new decade.

I wouldn't buy now, but on pullbacks, it makes sense or a long term investment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
Living in joy. Hit the low $30's, picked a few % points and covered. Looking for stabilization before that decade investment.
post #268 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
Was the impetus of this rally the beginning of that decade run that I spoke of a couple of years ago?

Most airline stocks have hiked various fees in the past few years to combat higher fuel (jetfuel) costs. Despite oil and jetfuel coming down considerably since their highs, all airlines companies havn't removed any of these fees, allowing them to grow their margins. Whats more, with recent security concerns, airline companies are set to create new fees which are probably going to be enforced for years. With oil most likely to flirt between $60-$100 for the next decade, the airline industry could generate some handsome returns in thsi new decade.

I wouldn't buy now, but on pullbacks, it makes sense or a long term investment.
So, bigbull, what do you think about UAUA pushing through resistance the $16ish mark & testing the $20 mark in the short term?
post #269 of 350
Thread Starter 
Short term, I think UAUA will try to push above its 2- year resistance of $15, but will not officially breakout (meaning it will close above it for a period longer than 2 trading days). Keep in mind that we have seen a 100% return in this stock in the past 2 months. I would wait for the sotck to pullback to $12 before thinking of scaling in. I would only be willing to set a small position at that level, and would look to load the boat near $10 or its 50 DMA (close to the 31.2% fib retrace). Keep an eye on the 100 and 150 DMA. Once you see a corssover between those two MA, it signals that the general bias has changed, meaning that you should wait for the cycle to run through the stock (accumulation/distribution) before you try to scale back in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by qu4rk View Post
So, bigbull, what do you think about UAUA pushing through resistance the $16ish mark & testing the $20 mark in the short term?
post #270 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post
Was the impetus of this rally the beginning of that decade run that I spoke of a couple of years ago?

Most airline stocks have hiked various fees in the past few years to combat higher fuel (jetfuel) costs. Despite oil and jetfuel coming down considerably since their highs, all airlines companies havn't removed any of these fees, allowing them to grow their margins. Whats more, with recent security concerns, airline companies are set to create new fees which are probably going to be enforced for years. With oil most likely to flirt between $60-$100 for the next decade, the airline industry could generate some handsome returns in thsi new decade.

I wouldn't buy now, but on pullbacks, it makes sense or a long term investment.
why are airlines a good long term investment?? Please elaborate, I am more bearish long term on domestic airline carriers then domestic automakers!
post #271 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingtime View Post
why are airlines a good long term investment?? Please elaborate, I am more bearish long term on domestic airline carriers then domestic automakers!
I agree. I think in one months time we will see it at $6 or $4 again. I think I'll turn my covered call into a collar just to make some more money on the put side.
post #272 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post
I agree. I think in one months time we will see it at $6 or $4 again. I think I'll turn my covered call into a collar just to make some more money on the put side.
I don't know about that. At $14 its tough to see that happen in 3 weeks, barring some type of ELE. I still see this punching through $16ish resistance to test $20 post earnings.
post #273 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by qu4rk View Post
I don't know about that. At $14 its tough to see that happen in 3 weeks, barring some type of ELE. I still see this punching through $16ish resistance to test $20 post earnings.
I hope you're right! Been holding this stock forever..it feels like I have a kid.
I'd love to see it go to $20.
post #274 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post
I hope you're right! Been holding this stock forever..it feels like I have a kid.
I'd love to see it go to $20.
Here is the earnings track record for the past 2 1/2 years. Not saying they will be out of the red, but they continue to beat estimates except for once in that entire span.

Quote:
Earnings Releases
SYMBOL PERIOD EVENT TITLE EPS ESTIMATE EPS ACTUAL PREV. YEAR ACTUAL DATE/TIME (ET)
UAUA Q4 2009 Q4 2009 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 1.47 n/a -$ 4.22 27-Jan-10 - 1-Feb-10
UAUA Q3 2009 Q3 2009 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 0.94 -$ 0.43 -$ 1.99 20-Oct-09 BMO
UAUA Q2 2009 Q2 2009 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 2.61 -$ 2.23 -$ 1.19 21-Jul-09
UAUA Q1 2009 Q1 2009 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 4.45 -$ 4.00 -$ 4.45 21-Apr-09
UAUA Q4 2008 Q4 2008 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 4.42 -$ 4.22 -$ 0.47 21-Jan-09 BMO
UAUA Q3 2008 Q3 2008 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 2.48 -$ 1.99 $ 1.96 21-Oct-08 BMO
UAUA Q2 2008 Q2 2008 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 2.05 -$ 1.19 $ 1.83 22-Jul-08 BMO
UAUA Q1 2008 Q1 2008 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 3.41 -$ 4.45 -$ 1.31 22-Apr-08 BMO
UAUA Q4 2007 Q4 2007 UAL Corporation Earnings Release -$ 0.89 -$ 0.47 -$ 0.55 22-Jan-08 BMO
UAUA Q3 2007 Q3 2007 UAL Corporation Earnings Release $ 1.88 $ 1.96 $ 1.30 23-Oct-07 BMO
UAUA Q2 2007 Q2 2007 UAL Corporation Earnings Release $ 1.39 $ 1.83 $ 1.09 24-Jul-07
Problem is the rest of the industry is lagging. So when their earnings come out they drag UAUA down like a sea anchor.

I would say that out of all airline stocks this stock is second in strength to CAL.
post #275 of 350
I think we may see some downward consolidation for the next couple days, same long green candle Jan 5th.
Maybe meet the 30 day MA at the 78.6% retracement/recent 52 week high
(It broke 52's a couple days ago, but the high from last january is what im talking about)
Probably see 12.80-13.00 tomorrow who knows
puts at the open with a stop over todays high
post #276 of 350
12:11:41 Today UAUA Calif Man Arrested After Bomb Threat Aboard United Flight-Report


CHICAGO (AFP)--A California man was arrested Friday after he locked himself
in the bathroom of a Michigan-bound airplane and claimed he had a bomb, local
media reports.

The man was arrested after the plane landed in Traverse City, Michigan and
all of the passengers are safe, WPBN reported on its Web site.

A bomb sniffing dog was being brought in to check the plane, the station
added.

The scare on the United Airlines flight from Chicago led authorities to shut
down Cherry Capital Airport sometime after 10 a.m. (1500 GMT) and the man was
taken into custody shortly before 11 a.m. (1600 GMT), the Traverse City Record
Eagle reported.

A Transportation Security Administration spokesman said a statement would be
issued shortly.
post #277 of 350
Hmm my puts should have worked out better than they did, i probably overpaid? new to options so does anyone know why the options are overpriced, its because of the IV right? but they don't report earnings for at least another week.
post #278 of 350
14.10 now, nice
post #279 of 350
Interesting article for those interested:

Are Airline Stocks Ready to Soar?
post #280 of 350
15.37 now
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