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TEVA - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries - Page 3

post #41 of 64
keep going down a little please. im waiting to buy into this one
post #42 of 64
they purchased a pharma company (Ran-something)

that should drop prices
post #43 of 64
wow getting hit hardd
post #44 of 64
Still looking positive?
post #45 of 64
it got an outperform rating..by someone..lol
post #46 of 64


Watching to see if the Nov 23 session doji was the bottom

For anyone interested in playing healthcare, this could be a bearish play against guys like Pfizer and Eli Lilly. With patients coming off, that is a gain for generic companies. Lipitor going generic is a huge money maker for generics... end of next year (November) I believe will be Plavix, another big blockbuster coming off patent.
post #47 of 64
Does teva continue to drop? I've been holding teva for a while now and watching it seemingly continuously drop. I feel that it has gotten low enough to buy again though. Seems like there is alot of value in this stock, especially at the current price range. What do you guys think?
post #48 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcwarner1 View Post
Does teva continue to drop? I've been holding teva for a while now and watching it seemingly continuously drop. I feel that it has gotten low enough to buy again though. Seems like there is alot of value in this stock, especially at the current price range. What do you guys think?
I think it is a great buy price, anything lower then ~$51, by my math, will give a great yield over the next 5 years. All the baby boomers are getting to that age where they need medication or more of it along with brands coming off patent, which will only increase TEVA's profitability... If anyone likes I can post my math and reasoning behind it. I'll be getting in on Monday morning
post #49 of 64
I would really like to see it. As I said, I've been holding a good bit of teva for a while now, but I feel like there is so much value at this low price that I should only benefit by buying more.
post #50 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcwarner1 View Post
I would really like to see it. As I said, I've been holding a good bit of teva for a while now, but I feel like there is so much value at this low price that I should only benefit by buying more.
I just got in at $48.35.

And no problem. Keep in mind this is just the way I approach investing, with a Buffet, value-based, buy & hold style. First off I pulled my numbers from Google (below).

To me, Teva seems like a really diversified ADR, which spreads the risk out.
"The Company’s global operations are conducted in North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia and Israel. Teva has operations in more than 60 countries, including 38 finished dosage pharmaceutical manufacturing sites in 17 countries, 15 generic research and development (R&D) centers operating mostly within certain manufacturing sites and 21 API manufacturing sites around the world."

Doing the math now:
Teva has a current EPS of $3.24. With a 5yr EPS avg of 34.97% and 10yr of 25.42%

So to forcast a bit lets just assume over the next 5 years they average only 15%.


1.
This gives an EPS in the 5th year of $6.52 and a total EPS over the 5 years of $25.13.


2.
There current P/E is 15.38 (the average of the stock market over the last 50 years has averaged 17). So being conservative, use a P/E of 15 and multiply by the expected EPS of the 5th year to get the expected stock price of the 5th year...(without dividends)

$6.52 x 15 = $97.8


3.
Plus add on the money earned from the dividends. They have a yield of 1.52% which works out to $0.756/share. So thier Dividend payout ratio is 23%.

So now take the total of the earnings and multiply how much you will make from dividends per share:
$25.13 x 0.23 = $5.87


4.
Add this to the stock price to get the expected 5 year price with expected dividends:
$5.87 + $97.80 = $103.67


5.
Now, Buffet only bought companies if he would earn at least 15% per year. So now we need to know what price we should buy today in order to acheive that.
$103.67 / (1.15^5) = $51.54

The current price is $49.77 meaning this company is undervalued.

In North America all of the baby boomers, now and for the next 10+ years, are going to be needing to be put on medication or more of it. It is just the way it is, look at any senior 65+, and odds are they are taking at least 1 medication for a chronic ailment. From what I have read, it is basically the same in most of Europe. There are also ever increasing generics becoming available with brand names coming off patent. This all means more demand and more revenue.

Lastly, they have high operating margain which gives them some wiggle room when times get tough, along with great revenue growth.

Just my 2 cents on TEVA. I'd love to here anyone elses views, comments, opinions, or DD on the company.

http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/b...s/TevaData.jpg
post #51 of 64
oh yea, and they plan to repurchase $1 billion in shares, which should also help increase earnings.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10934...e-program.html
post #52 of 64
up 6.11% today so far
post #53 of 64
Nice write up
Would love to hear other companies your interested in. New to this, hoping to learn.
post #54 of 64

anybody buying here??

post #55 of 64

yup. trying to get some June 50 calls @ 2.

post #56 of 64

watching this closely.  still havent gotten in, but would like to get in on a generic drug maker, especially with today's big drop

post #57 of 64

Anyone who makes money on these guys has my utmost respect.  I've gotten burned on this equity more times than I can count (well, OK, really I can count them - 6, but I'm 1-6 in the W/L column on this one).  Never again.


 

 

 

post #58 of 64

bump

 

chart.ashx?t=teva&ta=1&p=d&s=l

 

Any thoughts on TEVA's future?

post #59 of 64

just picked up a put here for 1.08

post #60 of 64
Published - Oct 03 2012 02:17PM EST

Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Teva Pharmaceuticals is pulling its generic version of a popular antidepressant off the market after a federal analysis showed the pill does not work properly.

The Food and Drug Administration called on Teva to withdraw Budeprion XL 300 after chemical testing showed the drug releases its key ingredient faster than the original drug Wellbutrin, made by GlaxoSmithKline.

The action contradicts the FDA's previous update on the issue in 2008, when regulators said the drugs are essentially the same. That review came after hundreds of patients complained that Teva's drug did not work or caused side effects like headaches, anxiety and insomnia.

The agency said it completed its own study of the two pills in August, which showed Budeprion does not release into the blood at the appropriate rate.
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