anyone thinking of shorting fed tomorrow?

.25 short broad indexes.
.50 long oil.
That is my current plan.
I do think they will cut .50.

from somewhere else:
With the FOMC interest rate decision getting closer, markets continue to position themselves for a rate cut of 50 basis points from the Fed in hopes the move will stave off a recession. Fed funds futures are indicating greater than a 90% chance of a half percentage point cut, while the consensus from economists has moved from a 0.25% cut to 0.50%.

Look at fed funds futures too..... as well as bond rates

Do a bit of research on Bernanke. The guy studied the 1920 depression a lot, and his conclusion was that they didn't cut rates quick enough. So he will cut rate quickly.

He wants to avoid the stagnation part of stagflation, at the possible cost of inflation. That is rather obvious.

where's that from?

http://forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=67546

I'm waiting all week in cash until just after the announcement. Hopefully we'll get some more upside tomorrow too. I want things to be as high as possible before I start selling again. I'm sitting cash for the meeting too and depending on the severity of the cut and the reaction, I'm 80% sure I'm going short by the close Wed.

That's true, but Ben has been more reactionary than proactive. Ben has been reluctant to cut until there was blood on the streets. Ben has either been a week late or 1/4 point short on his cuts. Ben first tries to add liquidity to the markets, or push the Treasury Department to 'bail out' lenders, or push Congress for a stimulus package to delay cutting the rate. None of those excited the markets, but each time Ben waited and hoped they worked in lieu of cuts. Maybe Ben has learned and will go for the half-point cut this time. Otherwise looks for another bloodbath. There are a few in the fed who really fear inflation and don't want to cut, although Ben has not seemed overly concerned with that yet.

I think the market expects at least 25. We get 25 and the market trades down because we didn't get 50. We get 50 and we trade slightly up. Just my 2 cents.

Hope for a 0 cut and blood everywhere so we could short everything and make a ton in few hours.