ABK ABKFQ - Ambac Financial Group - Page 4

going for new HOD

and...up we go

i go for the double

I wish I had bought more of this...another nice day today...but I am holding for higher

buffet???

and here we go

This one is looking nice, definetely a change in direction and breaking out, I'm going to load up on the Aug $2.50 calls next week, I think they're going to be very profitable.

MBIA, Ambac capital level risk rising, Moody's says
Tue May 13, 2008 4:09pm EDT

NEW YORK, May 13 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday said losses for residential mortgage debt are worse than it expected and may hurt the capitalization levels of bond insurers MBIA Inc (MBI.N) and Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK.N)

In a report on U.S. subprime second-lien residential mortgage debt, Moody's said bond insurers have "significant exposure" to second-lien residential mortgage debt.

The rating agency has cut 819 subprime second-lien residential mortgage securities this year, affecting $29 billion of debt. More than $17 billion of the securities remain on review for more potential cuts.

"Moody's loss expectations for this asset class are higher than previously anticipated, owing to worse-than-expected performance trends," the rating agency said in a statement. "This could have material implications for the estimated capital adequacy of financial guarantors most exposed to this risk."

MBIA, the world's largest bond insurer, posted a quarterly loss of $2.4 billion on Monday as it took charges on billions of dollars of exposure to repackaged subprime mortgage debt. For details, see [ID:nN12329970].

Moody's noted that in recent announcements of first-quarter earnings, MBIA and Ambac both reported material credit impairment losses on asset-backed securities that were structured into collateral debt obligations (CDO) and loss reserve charges on direct residential mortgage exposures, including second-lien securitizations.

Losses at both companies' residential mortgage debt and CDO portfolios "are now meaningfully higher than the rating agency's prior expected-case loss estimates, elevating existing concerns about capitalization levels relative to the Aaa benchmark," Moody's said in a statement.

Based on losses to date, the rating agency has increased its loss projections on loan pools backing subprime second-lien residential mortgages.

Bond insurers to a lesser extent have exposure to ABS CDOs, where second-lien securities typically make up less than 5 percent of collateral.

Moody's now expects 2005 vintage subprime second-lien pools to lose 17 percent on average, 2006 vintage pools to lose 42 percent, and 2007 pools to lose 45 percent on average.

MBIA's shares fell 5.4 percent, or 53 cents, to $9.32 on the New York Stock Exchange. Ambac shares fell 7.6 percent, or 33 cents, to $4.00. (Reporting by Walden Siew; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Daily Briefing
By Colin Barr

May 13, 2008, 4:24 pm

Ratings questions return at MBIA, Ambac

The triple-A ratings at bond insurers MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK) could soon be under scrutiny again. Moody’s said Tuesday that rising losses on bonds backed by second mortgages could hit ratings at insurers that have guaranteed second-lien residential mortgage-backed securities.

“Moody’s now expects 2005 vintage subprime second lien pools to lose 17% on average, 2006 vintage pools to lose 42% on average, and 2007 pools to lose 45% on average,” Moody’s said. “Moody’s loss expectations for this asset class are higher than previously anticipated, owing to worse-than-expected performance trends. This could have material implications for the estimated capital adequacy of financial guarantors most exposed to this risk.”

The comments come a day after MBIA posted a $2.4 billion first-quarter loss but spent much of a two-and-half-hour conference call explaining why it doesn’t believe it will need to come to market to raise more capital. CEO Jay Brown told investors he believes the company can make up a $1.7 billion shortfall relative to Moody’s triple-A capital targets over the next two quarters, through he conceded he doesn’t expect the company to get a stable outlook until house prices bottom out, which he said probably won’t happen till at least next year. The improved outlook may be even further off now, given Moody’s comments Tuesday. “Moody’s intends, in the short term, to assess whether worsening performance in this sector is likely to be material for exposed financial guarantors, and will update the market as appropriate,” the rating agency said.

AMBAC Fincl releases selected pre-tax financial data for the month of April 2008
9:31 AM ET 5/28/08 | Briefing.com

Co released selected pre-tax financial data for the month of April 2008. Ambac's impairment analysis is performed on a quarterly basis. As such, the monthly data does not reflect the results of the quarterly credit review. "Ambac has chosen to further strengthen its communications with its stakeholders via a monthly financial snapshot. This initiative will allow us to report on some key metrics that we use to manage our business." Co reports April Mark-to-Market on Credit Derivatives, CDO of ABS of ($228.0 mln). Claims paid, net of reinsurance was ($16.2 mln).

AP
Ambac writes down $228 million in CDOs in April
Wednesday May 28, 10:40 am ET
Ambac writes down $228M in CDO exposure in April, says new premiums totaled $56.4M

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. said Wednesday it continued to take millions of dollars in charges in April tied to its credit derivative and investment portfolios.

Net write-downs on its credit derivatives holdings totaled $176 million in April, with the bond insurer taking a write-down of $228 million on the value of collateralized debt obligations. Those write-downs were partially offset by $52 million in gains among other credit derivative holdings.

So-called CDOs are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt, many of which include subprime mortgage-backed securities.

Ambac reduced the value of its investment portfolio by $53.4 million during the month. The reduction in value of the portfolio includes unrealized and realized losses.

Net interest income on the portfolio totaled $42.2 million.

Net premiums written during April totaled $56.4 million. Ambac wrote $135.7 million in premiums during the entire first quarter.

Ambac had more than $1.28 billion in cash and short-term investments available at the end of April.

The data was provided in a series of monthly reports Ambac plans to release providing a snapshot of key data from its operations. Ambac is providing the data on a monthly basis in an effort to provide more transparency to its operations amid a major downturn in the bond insurance sector. Bond insurers have come under intense scrutiny from ratings agencies and investors since late 2007.

As defaults among mortgages skyrocketed beginning in 2007, ratings agencies and investors worried bonds backed by pools of the troubled loans would increasingly default as well. That would then lead to a spike in claims for insurers that would sap their capital reserves.

In recent quarters, bond insurers have been increasing loss reserves and trying to raise new capital to cover a potential spike in claims and maintain adequate reserves. At the same time, the insurers have been forced to reduce the value of certain holdings -- such as those in its investment portfolio -- to match current trading values.

Shares of Ambac fell 14 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $3.09.

Getting absolutely smashed, just was downgraded by S+P.

Is this an overreaction and thus a great entry point, or should we stay far away?

Yeah is this a good time to jump on?

Wow quite the squeeze

I bought my shares on Friday and may add more if it hits $2

Plan to sell half at double and then ride the rest for 15 years or so...

Institutions still own 91%+ of the float
The enterprise value is 56% higher than the market cap
Analysts are still saying to hold
Got an insider buy yesterday at $2.60
Next year is expected to bring in .56 in earnings (average from 7 analysts)
They are anticipating a $500 million capital cushion by the end of the second quarter
They have no current plans to raise additional capital
They have a solid franchise with a 37-year history of serving financial markets.
A quote from the CEO this week, "I remain confident that as further clarity develops around our portfolio, Ambac’s strong business prospects will be realized.”

Book value per share: $9.38

Weeee! Very nice run taking place here

Nice!

1.80 +0.41 (+29.50%)

Ambac hopeful on approval for $850 mln Connie Lee capitalization
6:26 PM ET 7/7/08 | Marketwatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. said Monday it's had positive discussions with regulators over a plan to funnel $850 million into an insurance unit called Connie Lee.

Ambac shares climbed 4.5% to close at $1.39.

The company also said later on Monday that recent downgrades by rating agencies triggered requirements to post more than $500 million in extra collateral to support its guaranteed investment contract business.

Connie Lee is a unit of Ambac (ABK) that is already licensed in many states in the U.S. The company is trying to pump new capital into the subsidiary and launch it as a new bond insurance business focused on guaranteeing municipal debt and global infrastructure deals.

Ambac's current bond insurance business has been crushed by the housing bust. The unit guaranteed mortgage-backed securities and more complex vehicles known as collateralized debt obligations. As foreclosures have surged, the unit has had to pay claims from those guarantees and has lost its crucial AAA ratings, bringing new business grinding to a halt.

Ambac said on Monday that it's had "positive" talks with the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance for the state of Wisconsin, or OCI, which regulates the company's bond insurance business. The discussions have focused on Ambac's plan to send $850 million from the current bond insurance unit, Ambac Assurance Corp., to Connie Lee.

"Ambac intends to seek formal approval from the OCI for capitalization of Connie Lee and believes that it will obtain OCI's approval of the plan," the company said in a statement. "A contribution of capital of $850 million to Connie Lee would bring Connie Lee's total capital to slightly over $1 billion."

Insurance regulators mostly try to make sure that policyholders are paid by insurers when they have a valid claim. With bond insurers facing potentially large claims from guarantees on mortgage securities and CDOs, some investors have worried that Ambac and also rival MBIA Inc. (MBI) might not be allowed to funnel capital into a new muni bond business.

However, Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner Sean Dilweg said on Monday that Ambac is in a "strong capital position."

Ambac's bond insurance business did not have enough capital to keep its AAA ratings. But the unit may have more than enough to repay all claims that come due over a long period. That may leave regulators more inclined to let the company capitalize a new business.

"We've been working very closely with them as they go through their business planning and adjust to all the challenges of the current market," Dilweg said in an interview. "When we have the physical filing in hand, we will look at it closely and try to turn it around as quickly as possible."

Dilweg expects to receive the filing from Ambac in the next few days.

Ambac also said it's been talking with Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's about getting top triple-A ratings for Connie Lee.

Connie Lee "will be received favorably by the market as it will provide much needed capacity and execution capability," Michael Callen, chief executive of Ambac, said.

More collateral

Downgrades of Ambac Assurance by leading rating agencies last month forced the insurer to post an extra $506 million of collateral to support guaranteed investment contracts it sold.

Another $270 million of these agreements were terminated after the downgrades, the company added in a statement after markets closed on Monday.

abk is flyinggg

74 million shares short ... that's a lot. Let's hear what the margin lady has to say about the shorts.

Forgot the link - http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=abk