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Gold Futures and ETFs - GLD, DGL, GDX, IAU - Page 41

post #801 of 964
12/14/11 at 11:26am

I bet Gartman will be back on CNBC soon saying that he added gold again.

 

1450-1500 is just too delicious for the gold bulls to ignore.

 

 

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post #802 of 964
12/14/11 at 11:42am
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

I bet Gartman will be back on CNBC soon saying that he added gold again.

 

1450-1500 is just too delicious for the gold bulls to ignore.

 

 


I would almost bet he does claim to buy near bottom....(wherever that is).....never have paid much if any attention to the guy.....

 

Seems to have found some footing here around 1560..........but Im not a player yet....................GLTA!!!
 

 

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post #803 of 964
12/14/11 at 12:03pm

 

 

GLD is getting tempting!!! i really want to start a small position soon, but my ideal price is around $145. Although at 52.80, its only about 0.50 from its 13 week low. 

 

Seems like there might be some resistance around 150…  anyone else waiting to buy GLD.... and want are you price targets? 

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post #804 of 964
12/14/11 at 11:01pm

I would hold off on gold for now. Some people are calling for it to drop alot further. Gold is one of the things that these EU banks can dump to raise capital so we could see more down side from that as well as the high US dollar.

 

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post #805 of 964
12/15/11 at 1:24am

Well.....geesh....lets get this chit into the 1530's and be done with it.........Gets much below that and we may see 1300's.......we shall see.....The eye should not get off the prize however........Yellows Bull market is not done ........................

 

......................GLTA!!!

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post #806 of 964
12/15/11 at 12:53pm

i agree this is not done...and its bullshit sell offf

 

someguys cleaning his books at the year end sale...taking profit for all this losses...

 

the miners have been very good

 

buy buy buy

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post #807 of 964
12/15/11 at 12:54pm

id wait for next wek monday to add...get in some slv options

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post #808 of 964
12/15/11 at 1:05pm

took a small starters position on GDX jan 55/57 call spread... the 51-52 level looks like good support.

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post #809 of 964
12/15/11 at 1:18pm

i think we might get a very small bounce...then drop lower...

 

but long term we will be back into 1800...

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post #810 of 964
12/15/11 at 3:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by charulz View Post

took a small starters position on GDX jan 55/57 call spread... the 51-52 level looks like good support.



closing out this trade for a small loss.. don't like the commods action today..

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post #811 of 964
12/16/11 at 8:49pm

 

I have been listening all week about how the gold bull market is over and how gold is going way down etc. I know that the gold price is seriously manipulated and how the gold holdings in the various banks and by countries is leveraged something like 45X the physical. 
 
I found this article about these leases and the different conditions the cause these negative lease rates that some using as evidence that gold is finished (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-08/gold-lease-rate-slides-to-lowest-on-record-as-european-banks-seek-dollars.html)
 
 
(11) A break in the linkage between interest rates and gold prices can also happen if and 
when the Gold Forward Offered rate exceeds LIBOR. This could occur if deflationary 
pressures drive general market interest rates lower at the same time that significant gold 
demand fails to find an outlet in the spot market due to limited physical supplies. The 
result could be negative gold "lease rates" as gold price expectations may create an 
entirely new phenomenon: cash borrowed to buy gold for future delivery (what I call 
"gold bonds"). In effect, this is the equivalent of gold owners forward selling their gold at 
higher and higher prices, and receiving cash up front to be used for current liquidity 
needs. The difference from gold swaps is that the gold would not change hands until a 
future date. Gold bonds, in effect, represent an unlimited short position in cash. I note 
that such a situation would not actually be sustainable ad infinitum because it requires a 
certain level of confidence in the paper markets - - confidence that erodes by definition as 
gold demand accelerates. Stated another way, the escape of gold bonds from the genie's 
bottle - - as evidenced by gold "lease rates" turning negative - - will spell certain doom to 
all fiat currencies - - as evidenced by gold “lease rates” turning positive and accelerating 
toward infinity. 
 
(12) Thus, gold's ultimate ascendance may be heralded by a bottoming and reversal of 
negative gold "lease rates". I would expect this reversal to accelerate as the Gold Forward 
Offered rate starts to reach parity with LIBOR (which itself could be exploding higher) 
while the spot price of gold races ahead of the futures/forward price due to physical 
demand for bullion increasing exponentially. One contributing factor to this scenario 
might be the desperate attempt to unwind gold "leases" en masse. The end of the road 11
would be gold reaching permanent backwardation as predicted by Prof. Fekete. With cash 
gold exceeding gold for future delivery, gold would then have its own "monetary interest 
rate". Gold "lease rates" and Gold Forward Offered rates would become meaningless. 
Until then, it may be appropriate to refer to the gold "lease rate" as the "gold interest rate" 
so long as we realize that it is actually inverted right now. By "inverted", I mean gold 
prices should normally be in backwardation if gold was universally treated as money, 
whereas gold is currently in contango and reflects the common view that it is merely an 
asset class. Of course, backwardation and contango won't really mean anything when 
gold is money since the distant value of gold will simply be expressed in terms of interest 
and present value - - money in hand always being more valuable than a distant promise of 
money - - just like the distant value of a fiat currency is lower than its present value under 
the current fiat system (which is why interest is charged on borrowed money).
 
(13) The most important and ultimate point about gold "lease rates" is that people should 
perhaps be first looking for a zig ("lease rates" shrinking and then going negative) instead 
of a zag (spiking "lease rates") as they assess the health of the gold market.http://www.silveraxis.com/commentary/gold_silver_leasing.pdf
 
I am not sure that the drop in the price of gold is that people are selling their gold because the cost of obtaining physical gold continues to be much higher than the future prices of gold. Clearly there is not excessive amounts of gold on the market. If there were they would not have many time leased out the gold they physically have. 
 
From what I understand there can be a balance sheet advantage to Selling gold to pump up your balance sheet for the yr even if you use leased gold to do this. I have to wonder if this drop in gold is happening for this reason and because some hedge funds are rebalancing and repositioning after having enjoyed a nice run up to a peak in the summer possibly having taken short positions on the way down.
 
With the EU situation the ways it is I can imagine that some of the banks may be selling their gold now for cash in hopes of buying it back in the future to get the cash they need as they kick the can down the road in a more out of sight way that the bond selling because some of these bonds sales have not been working so well.
 
" A gold lease, by contrast, can be treated for accounting purposes as a “non-event” under lenient guidance promulgated by the  IMF and  BIS. This is because the lease is undertaken with a single counterparty presumably in order to manage monetary reserves and is therefore considered an operating instead of financing activity. " - more hinky accounting to make the situation seem less disasterous or somehow kick the can down the road out of the pubic's eye?
 
Some are calling for much lower prices for gold in the $1400 and below. I have to say I doubt it because with all the QE that has been going on to kick the can down the road the massive money printing is going to catch up with the markets. 
 
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post #812 of 964
12/16/11 at 9:31pm

Imho........Looked like nothing more than a dead cat bounce to me today........Was able to buy a little yesterday but fell a lil short of my true target............hope to get more next week.......this whole europe mess is getting in the way.....Bull market in yellow remains intact........................................GLTA!!!

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post #813 of 964
12/16/11 at 9:47pm

Hmm.. I try to think what to do here. I want a starting position in gold early next week, but i suspect that it will drop temporarily from here, and according to you i'm right about this. If the Euro crisis get bigger maybe gold will go down several hundred dollars?

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post #814 of 964
12/20/11 at 10:05am
Us is improving

In the nxt downturn + usd jump

We will lose 100$-200$
More

1400??
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post #815 of 964
12/29/11 at 2:57am

ya i agree if it breaks down here today, its 1532... and then 1500..  my perception maybe that we hit 1300 in the next 4-6 months.

going to be another down day today for that.

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post #816 of 964
12/29/11 at 11:51am

might be one of the biggest collapses of all time here

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post #817 of 964
12/29/11 at 2:40pm
From another thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

I'm not at all arguing against a continued downtrend, especially with the dollar positioned bullishly and Euro debt concerns as we roll over into 2012. Gold has been vertical down on the daily since equities topped out in late Oct. However, a huge gold bear market rally would exact a lot of pain, and therefore I favor it happening. Anything up to 1650-1695 before Jan 20th or so would not shock me and could allow the daily time frame downtrend to remain intact.

Max bounce target that allows daily down trend to remain intact is white circle on TL (TL Is at 1690 c Jan 20th). Not suggesting this as a profit target, just a TA extremity which should not be completely discounted.

188
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post #818 of 964
1/4/12 at 2:10am

 Just couldnt break down that 1605 wall today...lol.....Have a hunch we do as early as tomorrow and get it up to 1650-1675 pretty quick.......We shall see!.................................................................GLTA!!!!

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post #819 of 964
1/5/12 at 12:51am

Will have to say a rise to the 150DMA (1672 ish) is the next target here.......But ya know what?......Could fall flat on its azz LMAO.....Me thinks we go up .....lets get to the next wall somewhere around 1627 and adjust our short term thinking then.....I like your ever mounting interest in the metals Rando,,,,,,,We are all students.....................................................GLTA!!!!

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

From another thread
Max bounce target that allows daily down trend to remain intact is white circle on TL (TL Is at 1690 c Jan 20th). Not suggesting this as a profit target, just a TA extremity which should not be completely discounted.
188


 

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post #820 of 964
1/7/12 at 2:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cactus View Post

Will have to say a rise to the 150DMA (1672 ish) is the next target here.......But ya know what?......Could fall flat on its azz LMAO.....Me thinks we go up .....lets get to the next wall somewhere around 1627 and adjust our short term thinking then.....I like your ever mounting interest in the metals Rando,,,,,,,We are all students.....................................................GLTA!!!!

 



 


LOL.......Appears that 1627 resistance held........Dont be surprised if this breaks to the upside with some true conviction..................................GLTA!!!
 

 

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