Originally Posted by Hyper
I just have to
at the bold, that makes no sense. Who cares what we are building, we have RECORD
inventory. You aren't even addressing that. Your argument seems to consist of the fact that even though we have a shit ton of empty new homes for sale, because we are building less, we are selling less. That is just dumb (really not trying to be rude). Second of all, who cares what the source of the graphs is, they report NAR figures, so are you laughing at the NAR?
Not laughing at the NAR. There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics. Certainly you've heard that? So i'm laughing at your source graphs, who decide to show statistics to support the theme of their website, HousingDoom
. What would they do if there were statistics that didn't support them?
You seem to think that the debate we are having here is over whether or not the housing market has gone down over the past year.
Allow me to end that conversation right now. I conceed. The housing market has been coming down, in some places, since 2005. You won't hear me making the argument that housing hasn't gone down over the past year or two. So why are you trying to argue against me on that since I havn't made that argument?
|Under your assumption we are having less sales because of reduced building. It would seem to me that sales have absolutely ZERO to do with that since we have high inventory. Care to debate against that?
Of course I care to debate that with you. Why else would I bring it up? High inventory isn't the only factor to consider in housing sales data. My house was up for sale for some time (Over 6 months, closer to 9 months I think) and it didn't get listed anywhere accept Craig's list for most of that time.
There is a big difference in selling homes between folks like myself on Craigs List and new homes where they are offering all sorts of goodies to move into that new home.
This should just be common sense. If you have 1 million new homes for sale and 1 million old homes for sale the new homes will have more advertisement and be more appealing to folks shopping for homes. Therefore you'll have a lot more homes selling out there because of the home builders pushing to sell their homes.
Not only that, but there are groups out there who invest in these new homes by making a certain number of purchases before the first nail is hammered into the wood. For example, when we bought our home in 2003 we bought the last one they had for sale. It was the 3rd or 4th stage of selling. Had we gotten in in stage 1 or prior, we could have saved about $20,000.00. Those folks who bought early were able to flip their houses at a profit right when it was built.
You can't do that with older homes that have already been built.
Another thing that is important is that new home builders are only in the business to sell those homes and make a profit. Whereas when my parents put their home up for sale and it didn't sell, they shrugged their shoulders and decided not to move. Big difference.
So yeah, I do care to debate against your assertion that because we have a lot of homes for sale, it doesn't matter that new home builders aren't building as much. It does matter, a great deal.
|Cancellations are a BIG problem and the census bureau doesn't revise its figures if a home that was to be sold was then canceled on (if already built).
Cancellations are a big problem if its a new home builder because they have to sell their home. My parents don't have to sell there home. A whole bunch of people saw the run up in home prices (like my parents) and thought to themselves, "Heck, we'll take out our equity and move somewhere cheaper, cuz we're retired". When it didn't happen, nothing changed and no one was hurt.
I notice though that you havn't bothered to address my initial point about that article. You've ignored it completely.
It tried to give us bad news (Kind of like using statistics to tell lies) about the housing market because gee whiz, the housing market has been coming down for the last year.
But the content of the article was good news. Things went up in September. Things will go up in October too and November, because we've hit bottom. But the numbers compared to last year, when things were still high and coming down, will be bad.
Because we don't come back up that quickly. Get it?
Care to argue against that?