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Bull Market - Nov 13, 2007 thru Jan 18, 2008 - Page 6

post #101 of 232
11/15/07 at 2:08pm
You better refresh your charts, it hit the resistance point on spx,dow, and nasdaq is falling?
look at the bounce on the spx off the resistance.
I don't regret unloading, I have been short over night on the gold filled @ 316 now 798.

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post #102 of 232
11/15/07 at 2:10pm
PS I would not touch the gold, either, you really have to know what your doing there. It could easily retrace here and rip you eye out.
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post #103 of 232
11/15/07 at 2:22pm
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post #104 of 232
11/15/07 at 2:27pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by chan View Post
...
Nice chart, fib test held nicely for the bears.
Thanks again for the tips in the messages also.
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post #105 of 232
11/16/07 at 12:33am
I think tomm. the retest..then we put in the low for the rest of the year...jmo, still trading not investing though
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post #106 of 232
11/16/07 at 4:33am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baggi View Post
I have not tried to descredit any graphs. Ive disagreed with the implied interpretation of the graphs.

The conversation, or so I thought, revolved around a media report which said two things:

1) September 07 was way down from September 06
2) September was expected to be down 1% by the "experts" but instead was up a "smidgen" as you call it.

My point was pretty simple. We all know that over the previous year (And more) the housing market has come down off its highs. Therefore, comparing last September to this September is a sorta, "Duh" moment. There's no possible, conceivable, sane way that the market could get back to September 06 levels. Just as there is no possible way for October to be anywhere near 06 levels. We all know that, we've come down over the past 12 months.

So putting out headlines and comparing those two is really quite silly. It doesn't tell us anything other than what everyone already knows.

Instead, what gives us information is, are we still going down, or we flattening out, or are we coming back up?

Your position is flat to more down. My position is flat to back up.



Also, either way, comparing numbers from last year to this November won't tell us anything about the direction of the market. Instead, it will just tell us where we've been and we already know that.

Did you see the latest October southern California? Worst October in over 20 years (not recorded earlier than that).

Fortune in the mix too. I'll give you the gist. The P/E for houses versus the rents they can get is out of whack in a ton of cities, which will depress prices.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...e_rent_ratios/

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate...4YRsVL3_a7YWsA
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post #107 of 232
11/16/07 at 4:40am
i stand corrected. we wont touch 13450 (i said it would happen by friday)
we got close, but in the end i think we test 12800 levels...let the bloodbath continue....
imagine CSCO at 25$ pps
RIO at 30.00
GOOG 560$
its coming
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post #108 of 232
11/16/07 at 5:05am
EW, I respect you, care to share some of the reasons other than the whole financial mess.
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post #109 of 232
11/16/07 at 5:14am
First off. I like to listen to people that know alot more than me, so I listen more than I talk. Talking to a buddy of mine (manages a 2million $ portfolio) Studying for his CFA, was telling me how shills like Cramer, Hedgies, people with the Money (JP-Morgan, Citibank, the huge institutions are fudging the market right now) selling into rallies and their main goal is to get all of the retail schmoes to sell all their shares of good stocks, so they can load up on cheapies (increasing positions) look at the history of the DOW, we end every downturn, stronger than before. He was telling me get ready for 12800 soon, but the BIG $ doesnt have the balls to drop us to 12500, unless CFC goes belly-up. Note: he is up in the NorthEast, close to the action, so he is my eyes and ears.
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post #110 of 232
11/16/07 at 5:19am
Nice, please feel free to post his ideas on this forum if you so decide to.

Could help the general crowd around here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExplodingWallet View Post
First off. I like to listen to people that know alot more than me, so I listen more than I talk. Talking to a buddy of mine (manages a 2million $ portfolio) Studying for his CFA, was telling me how shills like Cramer, Hedgies, people with the Money (JP-Morgan, Citibank, the huge institutions are fudging the market right now) selling into rallies and their main goal is to get all of the retail schmoes to sell all their shares of good stocks, so they can load up on cheapies (increasing positions) look at the history of the DOW, we end every downturn, stronger than before. He was telling me get ready for 12800 soon, but the BIG $ doesnt have the balls to drop us to 12500, unless CFC goes belly-up. Note: he is up in the NorthEast, close to the action, so he is my eyes and ears.
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post #111 of 232
11/16/07 at 5:24am
^ I forgot to mention he was talking about GS being the main culprit (look at the $ they make on both sides of the market, its sick.....
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post #112 of 232
11/16/07 at 5:33am
I don't know if I would name GS the culprit but I understand his reasoning and your explanation.

GS controls the prices of many traded stocks(hedge) and they are well balanced in any type of market swing. So they exposure to VIX markets has indeed helped them tons.

Its all about price control(MM driven) and hedge control. GS does both well.

BTW, I've mentioned this before on the "market thread" but thought it should fit here as well, a lot of institutions out there have been hitting(wash-painting) the ask with sizable blocks on some well known names recently. Usually MM's do this to take the stock to the price where they can later accumulate at "bargain prices:, not only from a fundamental perspective but from a euhporia prepective(psychology,trickle down effect).

EW, BTW, good thing you followed my advice and took profits on ETFC yesterday. Nailed the top.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExplodingWallet View Post
^ I forgot to mention he was talking about GS being the main culprit (look at the $ they make on both sides of the market, its sick.....
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post #113 of 232
11/16/07 at 5:35am
its almost like the whole market has gone "penny stock" with the MM's and manipulation...same ragged feeling...lol
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post #114 of 232
11/16/07 at 6:01am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ExplodingWallet View Post
First off. I like to listen to people that know alot more than me, so I listen more than I talk. Talking to a buddy of mine (manages a 2million $ portfolio) Studying for his CFA, was telling me how shills like Cramer, Hedgies, people with the Money (JP-Morgan, Citibank, the huge institutions are fudging the market right now) selling into rallies and their main goal is to get all of the retail schmoes to sell all their shares of good stocks, so they can load up on cheapies (increasing positions) look at the history of the DOW, we end every downturn, stronger than before. He was telling me get ready for 12800 soon, but the BIG $ doesnt have the balls to drop us to 12500, unless CFC goes belly-up. Note: he is up in the NorthEast, close to the action, so he is my eyes and ears.


Is he a trader or active investor?

I just take it step by step, S&R and based on fibs, sometimes look at overbought and oversold conditions as well. To call bottom and tops is just speculation, and heavy jumping early can crush you with this VIXY market
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post #115 of 232
11/16/07 at 6:05am
.
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post #116 of 232
11/16/07 at 6:29am
dbl
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post #117 of 232
11/16/07 at 11:31am

Keep it simple

Instead of arguing over direction and the bottom/tops , reversals, what ever.
Why not follow the institutions.
Most try to fight the trend, you have the advantage of being able to move quicker than they do, but most are putting up a fight. Just sit back and watch.
it is that easy, look at this as a thermometer, you will have plenty of time to "get back in" don't be swayed by media either "plan to trade, trade the plan" have patience!

This is almost identical chart on the SPX.

It is to easy as I said. don't swim against the wave, ride it.
If your unsure of anything it is better just to sit out and plan.


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post #118 of 232
11/16/07 at 1:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by ExplodingWallet View Post
its almost like the whole market has gone "penny stock" with the MM's and manipulation...same ragged feeling...lol
I was thinking the same thing .
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post #119 of 232
11/17/07 at 2:15pm
Thread Starter 
Day 2 and Day 3 were shaky at best, but several of the picks are well on track to hit their targets. GOOG has the least impressive showing so far, while FSLR has been red hot. I lowered VMW's target a bit because after further review it was too high. The solar bull market is the strongest and seem least effected by bad news.

Start => Current => Target.

AAPL - 153 ==> 166 ==> 215
ISRG - 266 ==> 280 ==> 390
GOOG - 632 ==> 634 ==> 880
VMW - 80 ==> 85 ==> 135
BIDU - 301 ==> 315 ==> 500
FSLR - 177 ==> 212 ==> 275
SPWR - 109 ==> 117 ==> 190
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post #120 of 232
11/17/07 at 2:56pm
Thread Starter 
I am no chart expert, but when the NASDAQ hit 2600 on Friday it bounced rather nicely both times it hit it. The second time it actually cracked below it for a minute or two, but then went up 40 points. Likewise 2640 presented a ceiling that it failed to get through.
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