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Financials: MER, GS, JPM, LEH, MS, WB, BSC, UBS, DB, C, BAC - Page 2  

post #21 of 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amphibithen View Post
which ones havent been hit hard yet? thats what im looking for..because i know most likely its coming
Golman seems to be the only one still standing. They seem to be a world apart however and are making tons of money no matter what happens.
post #22 of 122
All hail Blankfein!
post #23 of 122
Thread Starter 
Could be a big problem in our hands on sub-prime and it isn't the worry of default.

http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/press-release/8147/

Quote:
The agreement the Governor negotiated with lenders builds off a proposal put forward by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Sheila Bair that encourages lending agencies to keep subprime mortgage borrowers at their initial interest rate if they are living in their home, making timely payments, but can't afford the loan "re-set"--or jump to a higher rate. A half million Californians have subprime loans that will jump to higher rates in the next two years. Bair's proposal has been endorsed by the newspapers including the Wall Street Journal and New York Times as well as public and community leaders. Governor Schwarzenegger is the first to spur servicers to publicly commit to modifying loans in a streamlined and scalable manner.
This is a double edged sword, first, this will freeze up any further subprime lending depending on the actual proposal. With frozen rates, the return that these CDO's depend on will be much lower, reducing their value. No info on how long the freeze is, but, either way, this is not purely good news. IMO this is probably the best solution though (without reading the proposal), no taxpayer funded bailout and no investor bailout. This should have been the solution from the start and we wouldn't have this mess. I don't know why people think the government has to get involved, when it's quite clear that is in everyones best interest to not have millions in foreclosures, a ruined dollar, and a ruined financial system. The banks and homeowners can fix this if both parties are willing to give up some.
post #24 of 122
check out the volume vs the open interest on the XLF 28 strike. doug kass called a bottom in financials might be him...lolz

Im going to put in speculation bet
post #25 of 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will_Penny View Post
Golman seems to be the only one still standing. They seem to be a world apart however and are making tons of money no matter what happens.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street bonuses, on average, will be little changed this year, but not since 1998 will the gap between the haves and have-lots be so great.
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The collapse in mortgage markets and the broader credit crunch this year triggered about $50 billion in losses and thousands of job cuts at investment banks in hard-hit fixed income businesses. Concern about deeper losses and a slowdown in deal activity has hammered bank stocks.

Yet year-end bonuses, which make up the vast bulk of annual pay for bankers and traders, overall will be flat compared with record 2006 payouts, recruiters and headhunters say. Beneath the surface, though, individuals will see everything from increased payouts to pink slips.

"There's going to be a tremendous variance in terms of pay this year," said Eric Moskowitz, a compensation consultant at Options Group. "The only other year that compares is 1998."

That year, global bond market turmoil slashed fixed income profit, even as banking and equities businesses thrived.

Lost in all the recent noise about job cuts, write-downs and ousted chief executives is that Wall Street will generate record revenue this year -- an estimated $132 billion among the top 5 banks -- powered by a first-half frenzy in mergers and acquisitions, equities trading, stock offerings and money management.

The most successful advisers, equity traders, commodities and derivatives dealers will rake in bonuses that are 10 to 20 percent higher this year, according to Wall Street recruiters.

Average bonuses for managing directors in investment banking, using one example, will range from $2 million to $2.5 million, up 10 percent from last year, the recruiters said.

Meanwhile, colleagues in hard-hit businesses such as leveraged lending, mortgage securities and CDO underwriting will see bonuses cut by a third or slashed to zero, they predicted.

GOLDMAN THE OUTLIER

Then there's the chasm between Goldman Sachs Group, which is having a record year and projected no write-downs, and the rest of Wall Street, which has recorded big asset losses. The largest investment bank alone may pay out $22 billion in bonuses, roughly half the total pool.


A meltdown in securities backed by subprime mortgages has roiled debt and stock markets in the year's second half, and brought raging M&A activity to a screeching halt in July. Banks slashed roughly 10,000 mortgage, banking and fixed income jobs.

Yet record revenue at many banks will make it hard for bank executives to skimp on the bonuses.

"All these problems are localized," said Alan Johnson of compensation advisers Johnson Associates. "You can't not pay the rest of the people. You'll have an insurrection."

Indeed, bonuses among the five largest investment banks could reach $40 billion, based on estimated revenue of $132 billion, a total compensation ratio of 50 percent and assuming bonuses comprise 60 percent of that pay. The five firms paid a record $36 billion last year amid record results.

But looking at the full range of commercial banks and European banks -- including Merrill Lynch, UBS, Citigroup, and Bank of America -- bonus payouts could fall as much as 10 percent.

BALANCING ACT

Banks hit by the credit crunch will be eager to cap expenses without driving away bankers by paying relatively paltry bonuses.

It's the traditional balancing act made even trickier by the fact that Bear Stearns, Merrill and Citigroup, where revenue is under pressure, announce their bonus payments after the untarnished Goldman.

"I don't see how any platform can maneuver to approach what Goldman will do on bonuses this year," said Stephen Spagnuolo of Sheffield Haworth. "Goldman is the outlier."

Rivals will have to make the effort. Newly hired Merrill CEO John Thain has said he expected to pay out nearly 60 percent of revenue as compensation to ensure that Merrill's best people stick around as the firm tries to turn its business around.

A fashionable solution this year is offering an unusually high mix of stock as compensation, up to more than 70 percent, compared with the more typical 50-50 split. That defers costs and can help retain star staffers.

UBS, for one, will cap cash bonuses at $750,000 this year. It announced a $3.6 billion hit to third quarter results from subprime write-downs. Analysts expect additional fourth-quarter losses.

To be sure, some recruiters expect credit woes will take a bigger bite out of bonuses. Options Group's Moskowitz says that bankers will be pleased even if bonuses drop 5 to 10 percent.

"That's pretty darn good -- 2006 was a record, so you're pretty happy," Moskowitz said.

(Editing by Brian Moss)
post #26 of 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Icahn View Post
check out the volume vs the open interest on the XLF 28 strike. doug kass called a bottom in financials might be him...lolz

Im going to put in speculation bet
I read the President of UBS bought himself 15 million dollars worth of his own stock. That seems substantial.
post #27 of 122
Thread Starter 
watch out, a lot of these are breaking back down from the pop, some are past a double bottom. GS on the tight ropes.
post #28 of 122
MBI falling hard
12:53 MBI MBIA Inc drops over $3after Bloomberg headlines that say Moody's now sees capital shortfall at MBI "somewhat likely" (31.53 -1.13)
post #29 of 122
22.50 at .85 now at 1.10
post #30 of 122
bid at 1.55 bought some lotto tickets at 17.50
post #31 of 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by rossiTK View Post
bid at 1.55 bought some lotto tickets at 17.50
abk is falling in the dirt too

post #32 of 122
add another
FMD First Marblehead Corp (NYSE) Delayed quote data
post #33 of 122
bought some FMD...i like the looks of it
post #34 of 122
sean wahts up!!!we had some fun trading back in the day!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by dr_sean View Post
bought some FMD...i like the looks of it
post #35 of 122
Thread Starter 
Some of these bad boys have bounced, some have not. FNM and FRE looking at big losses again. GS still holding on to that 50d, others taking a sizeable leg down from their pops.
post #36 of 122
anybody want to cliff dive with me???
SLM SLM Corp provides update on deal; guides Q4 and FY08 below consensus (32.09 +0.15) -Update-
post #37 of 122
I'm already in over my head w/ FMD & PMI stock...both covered calls...both struggling to keep heads above water.
post #38 of 122
Thread Starter 
GS at a triple bottom, hanging on, which way does she go. In other stocks the decline continues, MS has double bottomed. C also about to double bottom (triple if you count the first drop)
post #39 of 122
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rossiTK View Post
anybody want to cliff dive with me???
SLM SLM Corp provides update on deal; guides Q4 and FY08 below consensus (32.09 +0.15) -Update-
cliff diving.

Start looking at FNM, looks to be bouncing nicely.
post #40 of 122

First Marblehead (FMD) nice turnaround

Quote:
Originally Posted by rossiTK View Post
add another
FMD First Marblehead Corp (NYSE) Delayed quote data
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr_sean View Post
bought some FMD...i like the looks of it
Man, was beginning to think I was the idiot buying FMD! Bought my first block in the 16 range wrote a Jan 20c bought that back for pennies later on & added trader shares @ 11.93 and a Jan 10c as a DITM play; was hard to fade this one for so long as it continually getting plowed. Getting paid off in gold and silve today though Goldman decided to invest in them.

---------------------------------

BOSTON, MA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 12/21/07 -- The First Marblehead Corporation (NYSE: FMD) today has entered into a definitive agreement with GS Capital Partners ("GSCP") pursuant to which GSCP will invest up to $260.5 million equal to 19.99% of the shares currently outstanding upon closing of the transaction.

In conjunction with this strategic equity investment, Goldman Sachs has committed to offer the Company a $1 billion warehouse facility that will allow the Company to access a new source of funding for its business. This is a first step in utilizing other funding alternatives to further diversify and strengthen the Company's business model.

GSCP will invest $59.8 million today to acquire securities convertible into 5.3 million shares of Common Stock at a conversion price of $11.24 per share. Upon receipt of regulatory clearances and determinations, GSCP will invest up to $200.7 million to acquire additional securities convertible into up to 13.4 million shares of Common Stock, at a conversion price of $15.00 per share.

The convertible securities are non-voting and have no coupon and a nominal liquidation preference. The securities to be acquired by GSCP will, on an as converted basis, represent 16.7% of First Marblehead's outstanding Common Stock. GSCP will not hold more than 9.9% of the Company's voting shares at any time. Under the terms of the agreement, GSCP will have the right to designate one member of the Company's Board of Directors. The second step of the transaction is expected to be completed during the Company's current fiscal year.

"The fundamentals of our business are strong, and we remain encouraged and excited about our growth prospects. We see strong demand for loans in our second fiscal quarter and continue to believe that private student loans are an important source of college funding.

"We welcome Goldman Sachs' equity investment and warehouse financing, and its validation of First Marblehead's unique business model," said Jack Kopnisky, Chief Executive Officer and President of First Marblehead. "Goldman Sachs' investment and financing provides our Company with additional capital resources to fund our long-term strategy. In the current market, we plan to continue to focus on prudent credit underwriting. We believe this will allow us to provide the greatest value to our shareholders, our clients, students and their parents, and to our employees."

Henry Cornell, a Goldman Sachs Managing Director, COO of Goldman Sachs' Principal Investment Area and Member of its Investment Committee, said, " GS Capital Partners has a long history of investing globally in financial services companies. Our investment in First Marblehead represents a long-term commitment and is consistent with our strategy of investing in market leaders with strong business models that should benefit from strategic relationships with Goldman Sachs. It also highlights our ability to move quickly and provide capital in the current period of market dislocation. We are pleased to support a leading provider of quality products and services exclusively to the private student loan market."

In order to preserve capital and maximize liquidity in challenging market conditions, First Marblehead's Board of Directors reviewed its dividend policy and decided to eliminate the regular quarterly cash dividend for the foreseeable future. The payment of dividends on December 21st will continue as previously declared.

First Marblehead also expects to make changes to the assumptions used in estimating the fair value of its service receivables at December 31, 2007 . The Company expects these assumption changes to result in an aggregate pre-tax charge to its service receivables of approximately $170-$185 million or approximately 18-20% of the service receivables as of September 30, 2007 . More than half of the adjustment results from estimated changes related to the future cost of variable rate debt and for the discount rate used in estimating the fair value of the service receivables. This adjustment reflects prudent changes in underlying assumptions. The final amount of the adjustment will not be determined until the end of the second fiscal quarter.
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