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TOPT- Top Tankers, "The Hidden Gem"

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
Many of you have now seen the explosive moves made by the dry-bulk shipping stocks in recent months. Many are familiarized with names such as: DRYS, TBSI, EXM, NM, EGLE, GSG, OMR among others but many do not know of a shipping stock that is yet to explode and could easily be $15 a year from now.

The Name: Top Tankers

TOPT is growing 188% yearly while trading at a PE of 24. Just by showing our basic calculations, we can figure out that TOPT is undervalued by nearly 200%. Say TOPT continues to grow only 35% sequentially for the next 4 quarters, the stock will be worth $15 a year from now.

Further Basic Analysis:
Selling at a price/book value of .95(book value of 7) and increasing cash flow 31% sequentially, the stock is cheap.
Sales increased 8% from last year and 1.5% from the previous quarter but revenues decrased 13% due to higher charter fees. We are starting to notice an increase in sales quarter over quarter. Expecting sales to be up 4%-6% next quarter.
Debt to equity did increase 36% from last quarter as inventory increased 21%.This was due to the purchase of new vessels(big income generators later on).
Operating margin increased 3.5% from last quarter(up 1.9% for the year).
Net income decreased 73% but cost expenditures are now minimal.
Institutional ownership is 23%(1.7M shares were purchsed in the last quarter, thats a 1,486.36% increase).
Dividend is $7(I'll have to check my sources for confirmation on this number but if so your getting more than the stock is worth for each share, unheard of).

These and a plethora of other fundamental factors are reasons as to why TOPT will increase in price a year from now but these are the basics.

post #2 of 15
Due to the incredible dividend, I am worried that TOPT will not be able to expand their business (buy more vessels) without incurring a large amount of debt.
post #3 of 15
I'll be keeping an eye on this one.
post #4 of 15
If it is anything like DRYS, those MAR 08 7.50 calls going for $0.65 will be worth $50 prior to expiration. Of course most would have sold out after those calls went up 10X and missing another 10X run.
post #5 of 15
Hey great find! But I cannot find a dividend being paid at this time?
post #6 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leebert View Post
Hey great find! But I cannot find a dividend being paid at this time?
I'm not seeing it either.
post #7 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leebert View Post
Hey great find! But I cannot find a dividend being paid at this time?
It hasn't paid a dividend since April 12th 2006

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined
post #8 of 15
Thread Starter 
Here is one of the sources that I use for my research. Again, I use multiple sources that I use for my fundamental analysis but the only source that actually showed the divedend amount but neither the issue or pay out date was the one below.

http://new.quote.com/stocks/company.action?sym=TOPT
post #9 of 15
testing 50sma
post #10 of 15
Thread Starter 
Indeed.

Could head a bit lower but on any 2% pullback its loading time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExplodingWallet View Post
testing 50sma
post #11 of 15
Thread Starter 
Not worried at all.

Their retained earnings(either usable for dividends or investments like vessels) have grown 22% sequentially. Of that, income retained, 5% was issued on dividends, the rest of further R&D.

The first post of the thread explaisn why they lost money. It was becuase their expanding their vessel fleet. This, however, is chaing with the increase in operating margin.

Also worth noting. Their main business is in the transportation of petroleum and other refined products. With rising oil prices and a reduce in supply(higher prices), oil companies will be willing to pay more for refined petroleum to arrive to shore ASAP(as much as 20% increase in the adjusted price, just like DRYS did when it was at the $20's).

Quote:
Originally Posted by justhangingout View Post
Due to the incredible dividend, I am worried that TOPT will not be able to expand their business (buy more vessels) without incurring a large amount of debt.
post #12 of 15
Is there any reason why you think this one might have been overlooked?
post #13 of 15
Thread Starter 
Yes Leebert.

Several, but the top 5 that stand out are:
1) Market Cap- the stock is not that big and many hedge funds pay little to no attention to these until they start seeing money flow piling in consistently. Once internal fundamentals improve, which as I pointed out earlier, are, will hedge funds begin to pay full attention(This is a long process but it looks to be a solid step forward).
2) Markets- Markets are mianly in the Bering Sea and Carribean. Once they start becoming a transcontinental company like DRYS is now becoming will we see further interest.
3) Net Loss- the loss scared many people and it would have scared me too but the last quarter was the total revrse in all other areas except the net income/loss side(again dirven by inventory expansion).
4) # of fleets- although they only hav 20+ working fleets and increasing consistently, the rate of production of each is nealry 24% greater than those of DRYS or any other for that matter).Many miss this.
5) Previous cash flow incident- had negative input of cash but now it has turned into positive territory(productivity increased).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leebert View Post
Is there any reason why you think this one might have been overlooked?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leebert View Post
Is there any reason why you think this one might have been overlooked?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leebert View Post
Is there any reason why you think this one might have been overlooked?
post #14 of 15
To add to the reason why this might have been overlooked, you can probably go with its PR history as well.

This company had a lawsuit filed against it last year by quite a few people. Not exactly sure what it was about, something to do with not letting the public know something????

Also, they filed a 6k on 9/25, and in that meeting the board (stock holders, etc) had a vote to do a reverse split. They received around 80% approval for it, but not enough to do it. Is that something that can come back on the table? And why would a company with only 30 million o/s shares even want to do a RS? raise the price of there stock, etc...???
post #15 of 15
Why the huge drop in earnings in 06 as compared to 05?

The revs. were huge in 06 but income down heavily compared to 05. Where they buying more ships?
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