GBP/JPY - Page 3

We could see a short run on this pair from market of 239.20 to 238.10-20 range...just watching this one..

-w

FWIW this one went short as I called yesterday as well...from 239.20--hit the target at 238.10-20 area VERY easily....and its just kept on going. 237.50 right now..

whew!!! this pair may become more interesting to me to play more often with these large pip runs..

-w

IMO a GBP/JPY short trade is building here.. short at 214.45..looking to close the gap at 213.80 TP target 1 and 212.55 target 2...tight stop (for this pair) initially at 214.95... see how it goes when asia opens.. GBP could be due for a quick recovery but I think the plays still favor the Yen for right now.

-w

oh well...may try it later if it dips to those levels....

Took the holiday's off.

The 1D is a little overextended for a day or so. But the 1H is almost a beautiful box. I'd like to play that resistance, but 45MA is in the way of any major retrace. Might be the play that never happened.
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USD/JPY did the bounce perfect. The GBP/JPY struggled at the 45MA and was 40 pips short of going to the top. I thought it would've happened the other way, coincidence I guess.

Not really a box anymore. Have a resistance line, and stochastic following along.
1 Hour

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12:04
It did actually touch the line and bounce. I have from about xxx79 to xxx20 ish. or 50ish pips. But then it busted upwards, and now the line is looking support.
So it's a win/lose combo depending on the trade settings. Which is why I'm not a huge fan of the 1Hour.
But a good long happened this morning. I think we're on the line again.

I don't trade in the afternoons. We're at 215.54 for reference to see what happens in the next 12-24 hours. My stochastics crashed on the 1h to about 33. I wondering if we'll get another long bounce for a few dozen pips before Europe reopens.
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16:20
Bounced up to 216.42 prior to coming down and breaking through that trendline.

GBP is facing some heavy news in the next 24hrs (RICS and CPI are due out)... Speculation says the potential exists for news to be poor in continuing the sell off on the GBP lately, and will tip the scale towards a strong possibility for rate cuts to happen by the BOE... This pair could be a big mover very soon... (I dont' point out GBP/USD for the fact that any moves on that would be whipsaw at best overnight--tradable but more difficult to plan and monitor, with GBP CPI and a few hours later the USD has its PPI and Retail sales tomorrow..).

Potential exists IMO for GBP/JPY to test 209.00-208.00 area from its current 211.00.. I would look for a SHORT at 211.00 & a STOP at 212.00, with validation being at 210.65...targets would be 210.30, 209.95, and 209.50..possibly to 209.00-208.85 or more--and if so look for a hard bounce back to 209.40-50 area to settle a bit. A move like this would be breaking new territory for this pair that it has not seen in two years...so while this pair loves to move hard and fast--it will move cautiously so you should trade it cautiously..

Alternately, LONG the pair at a break of 212.00 and target 212.55 and 213.00...

See how it goes and which way the market takes it.... trade safe and trade smart!

-w

So for anyone playin along.... Yesterday GBP/JPY pair moved south from 211.00 to 209.00 and more as noted... Was a bit whippy at first with a few fakes outs & stop outs, but it eventually the short trade held and fell thru the 211.00 barrier for big profits down to the noted 208.85...to bounce back to 209.50 to end the day as also noted. 209.50 is where the "safe zone" was for the post run..and it hit it well before London opened last nite.

Today it went ahead and fell further from 209.00 down to 207 in London, and also as noted it then bounced hard when NY opened up. From 207.00 back up to 211.00 in another sessions worth of trading....gotta love this pair.


-w

This pair at 206...keep an eye for a break move..or more likely--a bounce to 208...same for the EUR/JPY--potential for a hard move either way tonite...

-w

That's what I was thinking but u never know. E/J is sitting right on the daily trendline and consolidating nicely. Should be a fun night.

Meant weekly trendline

Yup it should be some interesting and hopefully profitable trades tonite.

-w

I see wolf's online now.

How are ya feeling about GBP/JPY tonight? Looking to take any positions before the BoJ? Thinking they'll affect anything at all?

Howdy Jonathan my friend...how is your trading going?

I am expecting no major reaction due to the BoJ because their comments have very little effect historically...however as I noted in another thread for folks to watch expecting this pair to move--quite possible for bounce from its lows.. A few hours ago it finally gave a bounce move indication where we had a bull engulfing candle after all the bearish candles on the 1hr and the MACD lines crossed and spread to turn up..a good sign usually. I went long at 206 on a bounce move possibility...about 90 points ahead right now.. Ideally I think 207 and 208 would be a good exits. Have to see if it holds or if it stalls and falls back. My stops are to break even now since its been positive...so we have to see what it does...

Asia should be whippy and it is a bit indecisive...but when London opens have to keep eyes on it for signs or surges of the really stronger moves if they are gonna happen... IMO..

-w

My trading on the whole has been going well. Daytrading stocks is really starting to click and I'm getting consistent... finally! I'm still having a little trouble with staying consistent with Forex though... but it's only a little $100 account... so I'm managing my risk while I learn. (I know it won't be long before Forex really clicks too. )

We're almost in the same trade with GBP/JPY. I went long a little bit ago at 206.50... I'm taking 50 pips of risk with it... and I'm looking for the same profit target area you are. Whether it be a winner or loser, I'm learning from both. No stress or worries here.

Glad to hear things goin well. Forex just takes a bit longer than stocks..hang in there and you'll get the click...

BTW--I don't expect the BoJ to cut or raise rates--which is why I'm not worried...and why I expect the bounce move more than anything right now. I expect them to be bearish in stance--but my stops are in place "just in case"...as are my opposite trade plans for a short if we hit 205 again. . But in Forex anything is possible--quite a lot of countries are very very worried about US economy and how the carry trades are in a massive crunch and panic.. No need to worry if you plan and protect yourself with good risk and money management... Sometimes if it gets too wierd or crazy--just step aside and let it calm down and then get back to trading when the dust settles...

BTW--key resistance areas for good exits-- 207.25 and 208.15

-w

Thanks for the wisdom and advice!

I'm definitely hanging in here. I love everything about the markets... and I've always been told, "if you do what you love, the money will follow."

My stops have been in place with GBP/JPY and I'm simply observing the wild animal run its peaks and troughs.

Thanks again!

BoJ says no change... I didn't see them say anything that we didn't already know.

So that clears that factor from our trade.

whippy tonite and got tagged out..meh...see how it does in Londion..maybe a trade will hit levels again...if at first it doesn't succeed--wait, watch and try again..

-w

Exactly!

I'll try again for the long bounce if it heads up there with strength again... maybe it just needs to test the lows.

Yup thats exactly what she did...

Went and took a small nap to check in again at 2am...bounced off the 205.00 low again as we talked about. London kicked in hard after morning tea at 3am and whoosh... I didn't see you on at 3am--did you catch it again?

I got back in at 206 as before same everything....and finally got a bit more sleep... Got up just an hour ago to check...its exited and done as planned for a nice gain..

Hit 207.25 on the 15 min charts and bounced a bit around there...then got its second wind and topped out this morning so far at 208.23 area... Now how did I know those key resistance levels would make good exit targets for profit taking...?


-w