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DJ - DOW JONES is there a smart play here

post #1 of 21
Thread Starter 
Knowing that DJ is either a $60 stock or a $35 stock based on the Bancroft's decision to accept the Murdock offer or not, there has to be a smart why to play this to guarantee a nice profit. Any ideas. I think there are enough fools in the family that hate Murdock more than they like money to actually reject the deal. The stock is currently trading at $55.
post #2 of 21
Thread Starter 
Let's say you bought an Aug 50 Puts for $1.85, and Aug 55 Calls for $3.20. The stock goes to nearly $60, and the Calls are worth about $5 and the Puts become worthless. You might lose $1.00 worst case. If the stock goes to $35, those Puts are worth $15. Seems you are getting about 15 to 1 odds on a bet that is probably closer to 3 to 1.
post #3 of 21
The thing is would the stock falls back to $35 if there is no deal? I thought they would still stay around these levels if there is no deal?

and really how likely is it that you think they won't accept Murdock offer?
post #4 of 21
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gameplayers View Post
The thing is would the stock falls back to $35 if there is no deal? I thought they would still stay around these levels if there is no deal?

and really how likely is it that you think they won't accept Murdock offer?
It makes no logical sense to reject the offer, but it would be a matter of pride. They see Murdock as an evil conservative who would destroy the integrity of their publications. There is no consensus on how they will go.

But really, I can't see any possible way this stock stays stays anywhere close to $55 if the deal falls through. They were under $35 prior to the offer and they just had a terrible quarter where earnings were down 25%. They would be lucky if it only dropped to $35, IMHO.
post #5 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyOne View Post
It makes no logical sense to reject the offer, but it would be a matter of pride. They see Murdock as an evil conservative who would destroy the integrity of their publications. There is no consensus on how they will go.

But really, I can't see any possible way this stock stays stays anywhere close to $55 if the deal falls through. They were under $35 prior to the offer and they just had a terrible quarter where earnings were down 25%. They would be lucky if it only dropped to $35, IMHO.
I see , well I thought if a group is offering them $55 then even if the deal doesn't go thru, it means that other groups would offer similar money? although you are right, it will certainly drops quite a lot if this deals fall...
post #6 of 21
Thread Starter 
Who is offering $55? I don't know of any other group offering to buy them. There is a group offering a loan so Bancrofts can buy the family B stock of the members who oppose the deal. But that does nothing to protect the general shareholders. I need to do more research on what is going on, but it seems there is a good trade to be made here somewhere.
post #7 of 21
Thread Starter 
OK, I made the plunge. 2 Aug 55 calls for $2.80 and 5 Aug 45 Puts for $1.00. See how it works out.
post #8 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyOne View Post
OK, I made the plunge. 2 Aug 55 calls for $2.80 and 5 Aug 45 Puts for $1.00. See how it works out.
hey Lucky, any idea when's the decision will be announced??

thanks
post #9 of 21
Thread Starter 
No, they just said an announcement would be made after their meeting, whenever that is. So, I expect tonight sometime.
post #10 of 21
Thread Starter 
Interestingly enough both the Calls and Puts have gone up in value as the uncertainty increased. The calls from $2.80 to $3.00 and the Puts from $1.00 to $1.20.
post #11 of 21
Thread Starter 
Nobody seemed to buy into this play, but as of now the Put is up 30% and the Call is up 10%. Still think the family might be too prideful to accept the offer from Murdoch so I am holding out til the decision is made where I think those puts shoot up in value. I really thought this was a win-win situation if played right, but with the new premiums there is risk in the play.
post #12 of 21
Thread Starter 
I wish I put in more money. The play is getting better and better....

Aug 55 calls paid $2.80 are now $3.00....7% up
Aug 45 Puts paid $1.00 are now $2.00.....100% up

Should sell out, but I think this deal falls through are those puts go way up.
post #13 of 21
good play lucky

DJ Dow Jones: News Corp says no intention of raising Dow Jones bid price - WSJ (51.00 -2.72) -Update-

DJ Dow Jones follow-up: Key Bancroft Trust to vote against News Corp.'s DJ offer (53.16 -0.56) -Update-

WSJ reports the Denver branch of the Bancroft family, Dow Jones' controlling shareholder, is to vote against accepting News Corp.'s (NWS.A) $60-a-share offer, putting pressure on News Corp. to raise its offer, according to a person familiar with the situation. The Denver trust, which holds 9.1% of Dow Jones' voting stock, is seen as an important faction within the Bancroft family. The trust is seen as a seller, but had been pushing for a higher price from News Corp. (See also 12:37 and 12:35 comments)


Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyOne View Post
I wish I put in more money. The play is getting better and better....

Aug 55 calls paid $2.80 are now $3.00....7% up
Aug 45 Puts paid $1.00 are now $2.00.....100% up

Should sell out, but I think this deal falls through are those puts go way up.
post #14 of 21
Well done on your success there LuckyOne.

But i dont actually understand what you are trading in? All i see is this stock at $53.63:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dj

So whats all these phrases like AUG, PUT and CALL? And where can you see there values? Thanks!
post #15 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by OCZedd View Post
Well done on your success there LuckyOne.

But i dont actually understand what you are trading in? All i see is this stock at $53.63:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dj

So whats all these phrases like AUG, PUT and CALL? And where can you see there values? Thanks!

http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/OptionsInstitute1.aspx
post #16 of 21
Oh rite, options, I still havent read up on that yet, thanks for that simony.

Looks like I have a bit of learning to do on options, sounds quite complicated.
post #17 of 21
Thread Starter 
The reaction is not what I expected. DJ rejecting the offer wanting more money is making the call go up and the put go down. I was expecting different.
post #18 of 21
Thread Starter 
Sold out half of my calls at $3.80....it made no sense why those went up if the deal is in question.
post #19 of 21
Thread Starter 
Murdoch withdraws bid......Sold the rest of my calls for $1.70, so I just lost an average of $0.05 cents on my Calls, but the Puts are headed way up.
post #20 of 21
By SETH SUTEL, AP Business Writer
3 minutes ago



NEW YORK - Rupert Murdoch has sealed a deal to buy Wall Street Journal publisher Dow Jones & Co. for $5 billion, ending a century of family ownership and adding a crown jewel to his global media empire, News Corp.

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The companies said early Wednesday morning that they signed a definitive agreement after the deal won sufficient support to pass from a deeply divided Bancroft family, which has controlled the storied newspaper publisher for generations.

Murdoch is getting one of the great trophies of U.S. journalism and a newspaper that is considered required reading among the business and power elite.

The deal will also expand Murdoch's already massive global media and entertainment empire News Corp., which owns the Fox broadcast network, Fox News Channel, the Twentieth Century Fox movie and TV studio, the social networking site MySpace, newspapers in Australia and the U.K., and several satellite TV broadcasters.

Dow Jones and News Corp. said in a statement that Bancroft family members and trustees representing 37 percent of the company's shareholder vote have agreed to support the deal. Combined with the 29 percent of the vote held by public shareholders, who are very likely to support Murdoch, the deal is now assured of passing.

The companies said a member of the Bancroft family or another mutually acceptable person would be appointed to News Corp.'s board of directors as part of the agreement.

The Bancroft family, descended over several generations from an early owner of Dow Jones, Clarence Barron, clashed long and hard over whether to sell to Murdoch, with several members saying they feared the quality and independence of the paper would suffer under his watch.

Some family members actively sought alternatives to Murdoch — without success. One of them, Leslie Hill, quit Dow Jones' board Tuesday as the deal edged toward completion, the Journal reported. Two weeks ago, another director quit in protest, German publishing executive Dieter von Holtzbrinck.

In a statement released early Wednesday morning, a family spokesman said: "It is our most fervent hope that in the years to come, The Wall Street Journal will continue to enjoy, and deserve, the universal admiration and respect in which it is held all over the world."

The paper's managing editor, Marcus Brauchli, tried to reassure newsroom employees that the Journal will maintain its editorial independence.

"It is too early to know how or even whether News Corp. ownership might alter priorities or structures at Dow Jones," Brauchli wrote in an e-mail sent to Journal staffers early Wednesday. "Our current and likely future owners have given formal assurances, however, that the newsroom will retain its independence."

The Bancroft family initially rebuffed Murdoch in early May, but then agreed to reconsider. Last week they heard exhaustive presentations on Murdoch's plans but remained divided.

Wrangling continued past a Monday deadline for them to signal their intentions, and on Tuesday the break came when a holdout trust agreed to support the deal, apparently after Dow Jones agreed to pay the family's advisers' fees, the Journal reported.

Murdoch had long been interested in owning Dow Jones, but it was widely assumed that the Bancroft family wouldn't sell. In the end, his price of $60 per share — a good 65 percent over the level of Dow Jones' shares before his offer became public — proved too rich to turn down.

The companies' statement put the value of the deal at $5.6 billion, but it wasn't clear if that figure also included the assumption of debt, and the companies didn't provide a breakdown of how they arrived at that figure. Dow Jones' most recent financial filing shows it has 83.8 million shares outstanding, valuing the company at $5 billion at Murdoch's price of $60 per share.

Murdoch has said he would invest in the Journal's Washington bureau and digital operations and expand its domestic readership, taking on the two other national U.S. newspapers, The New York Times and Gannett Co.'s USA Today. He has also said he would expand the Journal's presence overseas, where it would go up against other business publications including Pearson PLC's Financial Times.

Murdoch also plans to launch a business-themed cable news channel in the United States later this year to rival General Electric Co.'s highly profitable CNBC network. Murdoch hopes Dow Jones' news resources and brand name help jump-start that channel, but he would have to negotiate out of a deal CNBC has to use Dow Jones news through 2012.

Over the years, the Bancrofts' ties to Dow Jones have become more remote, and none of them work in the company's day-to-day affairs. Spread out across the country, the family's three dozen adults include a former airline pilot, investment bankers and philanthropists.

The Bancrofts long considered themselves stewards of a great American journalistic institution, but they also had differences over the future direction of the company. A decade ago, two younger family members publicly agitated for change at Dow Jones and were sidelined.
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