JASO - JA Solar Holdings Co. - Page 10

Actually now I am really regretting selling my solar... I think this really runs from here... but I'll let the longs enjoy it here.

g

I'm not in this for just a flip. I think she hits $10 in a couple of months.

$$$$

bought back in 2200 at 3.15, 'saved' 430$

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I made absolutely nothing today. At close it's sitting .01 over where I bought it at yesterday. It wasn't worth buying more on the drop today for me and it wasn't worth selling at 3.40 either. That's what happens when you don't play with much money.

I'm kind of pissed that the other solars rallied today and this thing did nothing.

I think looking at the 5 day charts for JASO, SOL, SOLF, ESLR, and a smattering of other solars, I think the reason that JASO did not rally today was that it had fallen pretty much the most of all the other solars, as, it had also ran up the most of all the other solars, which means there were probably more folks on margin who were getting margin called today... This was exacerbated by the JASO downgrade that came out yesterday...

so when JASO runs, it will probably run much more, but the question is, will it be tomorrow?

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IMO the 5 day JASO chart is the most bullish of all the solars... JASO did not participate much in today's solar rally... imo tomorrow we will make up for that.

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JASO looks to gap open... 3.37 by 3.42 premarket, especially if oil bounces since it is way oversold at 35...

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yep yep....
that fake run yesterday thru me off....got in late and watched it eventually fall...
hopefully today is a little better...might pick up a few more....we shall c.......

The reason a lot of the solars rallied was because obama said he was including 25 billion in the stimulus package for renewable energy. I believe someone made the point earlier either in this thread or the ESLR thread about this being a chinese solar company which may explain why this didnt rally with everything else. I know all the american solar and wind companies on my board rallied on the news but I would imagine that news has no effect on the chinese companies. Correct me if I am wrong though.

Yeah, I think oil bounces today... if it goes up a couple of $, then JASO should hit 4... but I don't think the momo people will jump in until they see 3.70... but that's fine... just extends the rally ;P

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They nearly shook me out at 3.25... nicely played, mr market... but I know that solar must run into obama.

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Dammit, sold 3.29, +300

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In at 3.30 , dont let me down.

Trying to decide what JASO is going to do here... imo it's either going to be one of two things...

1) People are like... OBAMA!!! BUY alt energy!

or

2) People are like... Well, where is the Obamarama rally? SEELLLLLLL!!!!

I think it will be apparent by 2pm...

g

this or eslr...? Hmmm..

Alright guys, I think I have officially overstayed my JASO welcome... I am finding it harder and harder to trade these tiny moves, and the volume is just not there...

yeah, JASO and solar has the potential to run like the wind if momo ever gets hold of it again, but I really thought we would see more buying during the Obama speech, and I did not.

anyway, good luck to all longs...

g

Did some thinking about JASO over the weekend, fwiw...

first I think the markets are set to retest 7500, over the next 10 days. This is due to the total lack of a bounce this past week, and the selloff we had after election Nov 5 and on... I think the buying point in any stock would be VIX in the 65+ range.

I was wrong on alot of counts in the past, thinking we would have an obama bounce in the week before the inauguration. Now, seeing the mess in financials we had on friday, and judging the overall tone of the markets, I think the obama-rama-mania that we had in the days before the election have been overwhelmed by cautious money on the sidelines.

Now although I was wrong about some of my overall predictions on the stock market, I will say in my defense that I traded JASO 5/6, for gains of 37% (2.23-3.07), 56% (3.16 to 4.96), 15% (2.91 to 3.35), 8% (4.09-4.41) and 4% (3.15 to 3.29), for +120% in total. I think all of which I called realtime except for the 2.23-3.07, which I never posted on this thread for.

and I did have a 1% loss on the day I had bought at 3.21 and my instincts made me resell at 3.18 the next day at the open.

So I think that the way we are setting up in JASO here, the way rallies are getting sold and the overall gloom in the markets, and in solar, makes me think that there are still some hopeful longs who have to get crushed before we see a near-term bottom on this stock. This stock is so volatile, and the money that is in it is so fickle, that I think we could see at bottom of 2.01-2.05 before we bounce, within a month.

I'll be waiting.

g

Nice trades and good profits.

thx, good luck on your nvda...
I think the financials will be the next play, after a massive selloff/capitulation it feels like we are going to get in the next 2 weeks. But we will see.

g

Chart Evaluation on JASO

One of my clients asked me to do a chart evaluation for him on JASO and tive him an idea if it was a good buy. This is what I came up with.

There is decent support at 2.48 on an intra-day basis (2.85 on a daily closing basis) and the drop down to 2.77 on Thursday might end up being a successful re-test of that level.

There is minor to decent resistance, on a daily closing basis, at 4.66 and stronger resistance at 5.09. Very strong resistance is found up at 6.37.

If the move down last week does turn out to be a successful re-test of the lows I would venture to say the stock will attempt to get up to the 6.37 level and therefore a purchase around Friday's closing price of 3.10 and placing a stop loss at 2.38 and having an objective of 6.37 does offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

On a weekly closing basis, there is decent resistance at 4.80 so keep that in mind on Friday's. A close above 4.80 on a weeky basis or above 6.37 on a daily closing basis will likely generate a move up to the mid 13's level which could make this trade into a home run.

The support level at 2.48 and now possibly at 2.77 are very clearly defined and the traders will likely buy using those levels as support.

This trade, from a chart point of view, makes a lot of sense, especially because of the low price of the stock and the possibility of much higher prices.

Nonetheless, if the stock does get up to the mid 13's by any chance, it is highly unlikely the stock could go higher without a strong correction back down. Nonetheless, with the stock being at $3, a rally up to $6 or even the possibility of a rally up to $13 would make this trade a very good trade.

If anyone wants further information on this stock or wants to discuss it, please contact me.