Option Plays - Page 13

AMZN is just amazing.

Amp your right. The best time to have bought these is once they release their scheduled financials. Only then will people really come to their senses and see that this is an inflated stock price.

Exepct the Ecommerce bsuiness to slow down a bit.

I have done extremely well on all the stocks except this one.


Bought some PBR OCT 115 07 calls at 6.60

Hey Will,
Well last quarter AMZN reported dynamite earnings which were due in large part to their strong Ecommerce business. This segemnt alone contributed a behemoth 67% of their revenue numbers and 62% of their overall growth. Recently they have expanded to China were less than 15% of the total population has any type of computer access. If you take this into account you will see that they are not going to start seeing big returns from china just yet but they will have to pay expenses there until most of the populaiton becomes acquaited with all the computer gadgets. This means that growh will have to slow down in part.

Their book industry is the strongest and will likely be the stongest group of the segment. But this group only contributes to 18% of their growth so the book industry will have to grow 100% of its full potential just to keep up.

the jewelry group is making little to no money because of high import taxes on diamonds brought from Afirca to be sold in the U.S.

They have started an MP3 businesss where clients can downoad songs but you and I know that people find multiple ways to download such songs for free leaving this industry into pure debacle and huge expenses. the company itself expects setbacks in this particular group.

Besos, CEO, is another world building space crafts and is not really involed in the company. Their board is not the most bright of the bunch and they have been notorious for paying more for what an item is worth.

Finally, Ebay is stil taking market share from Amazon. They provide the best items for the buck. Ebay pays lower expenses for the same type of service that AMZN has.

AMZN expectations are high and any bad news will dissapoint the street heavily thus making all of the hot money and trading miney to leave within a blink.

and as you stated in one of the earlier threads GOOG getting into this business leaves AMZN with very little market share to compete with.

A lot of interest above 70 in the option market. That is why we have seen it hold steady near that level.

This could go down as fast as it went up.

BTW after analyzing it a bit this is a 56 fair value stock trading a multiple of 45 not 125.

Im still sitting on mostly cash and I dont plan to diverge from this thesis until I see futher improvement.

I sold my NVDA 07 calls for a 18% profit. I also sold th BG 07 calls for a 12% loss so I rounded uo with a 6% gain.

I'm leaving the oil services play open because I still believe that they will coninue to to be the leading sector in the summer.

On a side note my biggest position is AMZN(10% of holdings) and the remaining 10% is divided equally into the other three calls.

Once the market hits bottom I will be looking to average down on those. I'm not really worried about them becuase I have plenty of time to make up for them. If I see any type of ugly movement then I'm selling those cut any slight loss and daytrade the volaitlity.

I do not have any new oiption plays to recommend at the moment becuase of this irrational market volatiltity. Once the direction of the market becomes clearer I will find new plays.

You did a Calendar Spread right?

Nice explanation Zixi.

Holding steady on my positions.

Doing well thus far.